This policy memorandum, addressed to Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, outlines recommendations for a structured and systematic reopening of the Canada–U.S. border by September 2021. Drawing on tourism revenue data, vaccination rates, public opinion polling, and coronavirus infection statistics, the memo argues that the border should remain closed until at least 75% of U.S. adults are vaccinated and health authorities confirm it is safe to reopen. The memo also addresses the estimated $640 million in lost tourism revenues from an extended closure, suggests targeted economic relief for the hardest-hit urban centres, and recommends coordinated public communications—including social media—to explain the rationale for the continued closure.
To: Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs
From: Wayne Easter, Chair, House of Commons Finance Committee
Subject: Recommendations and Rationale in Support of a Structured and Systematic Reopening of the Canadian–U.S. Border by September 2021
The Canada–U.S. border was closed in March 2020 in an effort to stem the spread of the COVID-19 virus (Moetaz, 2021). However, the continued closure of the border to nonessential travel has severely diminished tourism revenues (Fox, 2021). Despite the significant economic impact this closure has already exacted, it is vitally important that the border remain closed to travel and tourism until virus positivity rates and other conditions have improved and are adjudged safe by the scientific community.
Recommendation 1. The Prime Minister should resist calls to reopen the Canadian–U.S. border immediately and should consider extending the closure until September 2021.
Recommendation 2. The Canadian–U.S. border should reopen at the earliest opportunity, but only when satisfactory assurances have been received from the health care community that it is safe to do so. At present, these safety considerations include ensuring that at least 75% of all U.S. adults have been vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus (Fox, 2021).
Recommendation 3. Continued vigilance should be maintained that will alert Canadian health care authorities in the event conditions change after the border is reopened, so that appropriate protective measures can be taken in response, including reclosing the Canada–U.S. border if necessary.
The United States is Canada's largest trading partner by far and also an important source of travel and tourism revenues. Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada was visited by more than 5 million U.S. tourists in the fourth quarter of 2019, who contributed nearly $2 billion in revenues to the Canadian tourism industry (Visitor spending in Canada, 2021). These contributions include expenditures on accommodations, food and beverages, recreation and entertainment, clothing and gifts, transportation, and other spending (Visitor spending in Canada, 2021).
Travel and tourism revenues affect all sectors of the Canadian economy, but they are especially important for major urban centres. Vancouver accounted for 20% of total revenues (approximately $758 million), Toronto accounted for nearly as much with $680 million in revenues (18% of total spending), and Montreal saw international tourists spend $448 million (12% of total revenues) in the fourth quarter of 2019, just prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (Visitor spending in Canada, 2019).
Although the economic stakes are very high, it is vitally important that the reopening of the Canada–U.S. border proceed in a structured and systematic fashion. Notwithstanding the billions of dollars involved, the health and welfare of Canadian citizens remains of paramount importance, far outweighing the severity of the economic impact that the border closure has caused both nations. Although adult vaccination rates in Canada and the United States are comparable at approximately 48% of the adult populations, the coronavirus infection rate for Canadians is a troubling 56% compared to just 12% for U.S. adults (Fox, 2021).
Another important consideration is the strong public opinion against a premature relaxation of the border closure. Almost half of Canadians are currently opposed to an immediate reopening of the border, and fully 75% are in favor of requiring U.S. visitors to show proof of coronavirus vaccination prior to entry into Canada once the border is reopened (Moetaz, 2021). At present, a majority of Canadian citizens favor extending the border closure until at least September 2021, and only if conditions warrant reopening at that time. Moreover, despite nearly 1.4 million active cases of COVID-19 and more than 25,000 deaths, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center reports that fewer than 53,000 vaccine doses have been administered to Canadian citizens to date (Canada Covid-19 overview, 2021).
"Estimated $640 million cost of extended closure"
"Public messaging strategy and legislative pressures"
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