China–Japan Relations: History, Power, and Future Ties

Introduction

Given their longstanding disputes and track record of going to war over resources, it is reasonable to suggest that future relations between China and Japan will be characterized by a reluctant, pragmatic trade-off between bilateral commerce and the need to resolve their respective foreign policy differences. Although Japan dominated China militarily throughout the early twentieth century in its quest for scarce resources to fuel its enormous war machine, the situation has changed dramatically. China is no longer the second-class nation Japan faced prior to and during World War II. Moreover, because both nations are major Asian economic powers, the stakes are high for Japan and China as well as the rest of the international community.

While there are no foreign policy crystal balls that can predict the precise nature of future relations between these two Asian powers, it is possible to develop informed and timely insights by examining recent and current trends. To this end, this paper reviews the literature to provide the background for the current situation between Japan and China, followed by a comparison of relevant key metrics. Finally, based on the findings that emerge from this research, an analysis of what the future holds for Sino-Japanese relations is presented, followed by a summary in the conclusion.

Historical Background

The historical record shows that relations between China and Japan date to at least 1,500 BCE, and these two countries have never coexisted easily. As Brown (2016) notes, "Japanese and Chinese imperial disdain for each other manifested itself very early on in prickly protocol, with the Chinese dynastic courts always trying to present Japan as a semi-vassal state, and the Japanese returning the contempt in the earliest dynasties" (para. 7). Furthermore, Japan has never been truly intimidated by its enormous neighbor in terms of culture, learning, politics, or economics, and it long attempted to challenge China's regional hegemony.

For example, Economy (2017) notes that as early as 600 CE, Japan subtly began to assert its equality with China. In that year, a Japanese delegation brought a letter to the Sui dynasty's emperor referring to Japan's empress as the "son of heaven in the land of the rising sun" and to her Chinese counterpart as the "son of heaven in the land of the setting sun"—implying that the two stood on equal footing (p. 142). By the turn of the twentieth century, however, the situation had grown far more complex as the geopolitical sphere was reshaped by the lingering aftereffects of collapsing European colonialism and the concomitant economic and military growth of Japan.

By July 1937, Japan was desperate for the raw materials its military required—most especially oil, which its navy was consuming at roughly 400 tons per hour—as well as coal, iron, and other natural resources. The Japanese military leadership exerted enormous control over foreign affairs at this time and turned its attention to the vast resources available in China's Manchuria. The highly trained and professional military Japan maintained stood in stark contrast to the regional militias that defended various parts of China, which were still ruled by local warlords commanding their own personal armies (Economy, 2017). It is therefore unsurprising that the Japanese military campaign in China devastated large portions of the country until the end of World War II, including the notorious Rape of Nanking, in which Japanese soldiers killed and assaulted tens of thousands of Chinese civilians.

Following the end of World War II, relations between China and Japan assumed a different character as both nations worked to recover from the devastation they had experienced during the global conflict. Over the past half century, the relationship has gravitated toward an amicable but wary quality based largely on increased commercial trade—driven in no small part by the close geographic proximity of the two countries.

Comparison of Key Metrics

In order to formulate an informed view of the future of relations between Japan and China, it is important to assess their respective economic and demographic profiles. China has more than ten times the population of Japan but a per capita GDP of only approximately 37.6% of Japan's; its gross domestic product overall, however, is nearly five times larger. Japan's total land area of just over 145,000 square miles represents only about 3% of China's massive 3.7 million square miles. Notwithstanding these significant geographic differences, people in Japan can expect to live approximately ten years longer than their Chinese counterparts. Low unemployment rates in both countries suggest that employment of some kind is accessible to those who seek it in either nation.

Japan and China are also both major export and import partners in the global economy, but China possesses a nuclear capability that Japan does not currently share. In sum, China is both a demographic and economic giant, while Japan is constrained by its defense-only constitution and its close military alliance with the United States. Taken together, the significant differences in population, economic clout, geographic area, and other sociodemographic factors contribute to a future that remains uncertain—particularly given the turbulent relationship these two former adversaries have experienced over the past several centuries.

Conclusion

Policymakers in the United States and Europe probably desperately want a crystal ball right about now, because the future of relations between China and Japan is virtually anyone's guess. It would take only a minor skirmish over flashpoints such as Taiwan or North Korea to ignite a regional war between China and Japan that could easily escalate to global proportions, given both countries' close ties to powerful military allies. More troubling, perhaps, is the manner in which China has increasingly converted its growing economic might into military clout in the South China Sea. In the meantime, Japan has been forced to remain largely on the sidelines watching these developments unfold while the United States wrestles with its own internal political challenges.

In the final analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that Japan will not be the first to throw a military stone—but it will probably be the last to launch a U.S.-provided nuclear missile.

References

Brown, K. (2016, August 31). The most dangerous problem in Asia: China-Japan relations. The Diplomat. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2016/08/the-most-dangerous-problem-in-asia-china-japan-relations/

Chuck, E. (2016, March 31). Fact sheet: Who has nuclear weapons and how many do they have? NBC News. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fact-sheet-who-has-nuclear-weapons-how-many-do-they-n548481

Economy, E. C. (2017, July/August). History with Chinese characteristics: How China's imagined past shapes its present. Foreign Affairs, 96(4), 141–145.

Khatoon, S. (2017, January 1). The rise of China and India-Japan strategic partnership. IUP Journal of International Relations, 11(1), 52–55.