This paper examines Mexico's response to climate change, with particular focus on the agricultural sector. As the only developing country to have submitted three national communications to the UNFCCC, Mexico has demonstrated a sustained commitment to addressing emissions and building adaptive capacity. The paper outlines projected temperature and rainfall changes, the increased frequency of extreme weather events, and their impacts on crop and livestock production. It also reviews key national policy frameworks — including the National Climate Change Strategy, the Special Program on Climate Change, and the ENACC — as well as Mexico's participation in the Clean Development Mechanism and the Mexican Carbon Program.
Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Mexico is the only developing country to have presented three national communications, suggesting a serious commitment by the government to addressing climate change across sectors. In relative terms, agriculture has made a modest contribution to total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the potential for emission reductions in the sector is limited, focusing mainly on methane reduction, though more diversified carbon trading opportunities can be pursued.
With extreme weather events predominant in the northern parts of the country, agriculture is remarkably vulnerable: water scarcity is a persistent concern in the north, while tropical storms in the southern regions cause enormous damage to crop and livestock production. Reducing susceptibility to climate change is therefore of primary importance in Mexico's agricultural sector, given the role it plays in food security and the livelihoods of rural populations.
According to Mexico's Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, the following weather changes are expected to affect the agricultural sector:
a) Increases in temperature. By 2020, projected temperature increases in winter (February) are between 0 and 2.5°C, and in summer (June–August) between 0.9 and 2.2°C. It is highly likely that by 2050 the climate in Mexico will warm by 2 to 4°C, particularly in the central and northern parts of the country.
b) Decreases in rainfall. Precipitation is expected to decline by up to 16% in the central region and by less than 8% in areas surrounding the Gulf of Mexico, primarily between January and May. By 2020, projected rainfall fluctuations will range from −7 to +12% (December–February) and −8 to +12% (June–August).
c) Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The number of severe storms and the intensity of drought periods will also increase. Sea surface temperatures are expected to rise by 1 to 2°C, leading to stronger and more forceful tropical hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexican portion of the Pacific Ocean — with a 7% increase in wind intensity and an 18% increase in rainfall within a 50-mile radius of the hurricane's center. Cold fronts may also become less frequent.
The Global Climate Risk Index, calculated for the period 1997–2006 and covering both human and economic impacts, ranked Mexico 26th in the world, underscoring the country's elevated vulnerability to climate-related events. Between 2002 and 2007, tropical storms (including hurricanes) and floods caused the greatest human and economic losses in Mexico. For the period 1997–2006, damages averaged 0.17% of GDP. Approximately 3.5 million people — around 4% of the country's population — were affected by hurricanes (3 events), with compensation costs reaching US$8 billion; 1.6 million people were affected by floods (1 event), with damages reaching US$3 billion.
The Mexican government's development priorities were established by the National Development Plan 2007–2012. The agricultural sector forms part of the second pillar of the Plan, while water, forests, and climate change — including GHG emission reductions and the development of adaptation measures — are part of the fourth pillar.
Mexico formulated its National Climate Change Strategy in May 2007. The strategy identifies opportunities for emissions reductions on a voluntary basis, in addition to measures for building essential national and local capacity for response and adaptation. It proposes concrete mitigation and adaptation actions for all sectors, including agriculture, covering all major aspects of climate change governance. The strategy builds on institutional improvements, scientific work, and savings already underway in Mexico. Climate change strategies and action plans have also been developed at the sub-national level for Mexico City and for the states of Veracruz (by the Universidad de Veracruz) and Nuevo León.
A Special Program on Climate Change (PECC, by its Spanish acronym), launched in July 2008, was designed to identify priority actions across sectors and the required sources of funding, both domestic and international. Taking into account the opportunities and constraints of each sector and the broader economy, Mexico planned to establish voluntary emission reduction targets and incorporate them into the PECC. The program was to be implemented through inter-sectoral collaboration, including the agricultural sector.
The Agricultural Sector Program 2007–2012 defines climate change as a strategic national and international challenge demanding immediate action. The program, grounded in an assessment of climate change impacts on the sector, reaffirms the importance of existing programs targeting crop conversion and rotation, efficient use of fertilizers, conservation tillage, and dedicated support for farmers affected by extreme weather events. It also promotes methods such as creating incentives for the sustainable use and conservation of natural resources and wildlands. Mitigation activities include eliminating the use of fire, promoting zero tillage, reforestation, retrofitting livestock facilities to capture and use methane, and improving energy efficiency in fisheries. Key initiatives to strengthen adaptive capacity include targeted research, gene banks, the development of seed reserves, and the creation of ecological corridors and conservation areas.
The National Water Program 2007–2012 developed climate change policies that include promoting efficient water use in agriculture, reducing flood risks, and advancing the technological, administrative, and financial development of the water sector, as well as promoting integrated and sustainable water management.
The National Institute of Ecology (INE) and the Ministry of the Environment (SEMARNAT) oversee Mexico's commitments to the UNFCCC as coordinating bodies. A range of activities is associated with official GHG emissions reporting by sector, action plans for mitigating those emissions, and assessments of vulnerabilities to climatic impacts.
Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), developed (Annex I) countries can support project activities that reduce emissions in developing (non-Annex I) countries. Almost a third (29.25%) of all registered CDM projects are located in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). While the CDM is intended to generate investment in developing countries — particularly from the private sector — and to facilitate the transfer of environmentally friendly technologies, the global share of agricultural sector projects (including afforestation and reforestation) remains very small: 5.57% of total registered projects internationally as of January 2010. Latin America currently holds the largest share of registered agricultural projects internationally, at 77% (69 projects).
"Mexico's CDM participation and agricultural carbon projects"
"Research bodies, GHG inventories, and economic studies"
"ENACC adaptation priorities for water and agriculture"
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