Mount Agung Crisis Management Plan: Bali Volcano Response

Background and General Information

The world watches while Mount Agung slowly erupts on the island of Bali, emitting plumes of smoke, ash, and steam, and even resulting in some cold lava flows (Tambini, 2017). While the images are certainly impressive, if Agung fully erupts, the results could be disastrous. According to the latest news stories from the Indonesian island, about 67,000 residents have already been evacuated, with tens of thousands more on alert (Tambini, 2017). The Mount Agung evacuation zone has been established at a minimum of nine kilometers from the volcano. A total of 100,000 people will be immediately affected, with long-term consequences including the decimation of entire villages.

In addition to the displacement of people and the obvious immediate humanitarian and financial crisis, the eruption of the volcano means the loss of tourism revenue for Indonesia's most important and lucrative destination. Although the mountain is not located in the prime tourist zone, international flights to Bali have been canceled and many tourists have already left. Tourism is the basis of the Balinese economy, which is already taking a hit from the volcano even though Mount Agung is located more than 70 kilometers from the main tourism areas ("Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012," n.d.). Therefore, a crisis care plan should be sensitive to the need for quickly rebuilding the tourism infrastructure and developing an accurate public relations strategy.

The eruption started on September 22, 2017. Since then, threat levels have increased to the maximum level due to a rise in seismic activity. The current threat level is Red Alert — the highest level possible for a volcano ("Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012," n.d.). Multiple agencies are working together for crisis management, including Indonesian federal authorities, the Department of Meteorology, Climate, and Geophysics, the National Disaster Management Agency, and the Indonesian Red Cross ("Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012," n.d.). The American Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) also works in conjunction with Indonesia's Center for Volcanology and Geologic Hazard Mitigation (Pallister, 2015).

Strategic Partnerships and Capacity Planning

The approach being taken to mitigate the crisis has been effective so far. Mount Agung has erupted in the past — the last time being in 1963, when 2,000 people died (Gibbens, 2017). Since then, the Indonesian government has vastly improved its disaster readiness and preparedness. Indonesia is squarely within the "Ring of Fire," one of the earth's prime seismic zones. As many as 160,000 people overall have died as a result of volcanoes in Indonesia alone (Gibbens, 2017). Armed with knowledge about the links between seismic activity and eruptions, and with improved monitoring technology, Indonesia is more capable now than ever before to manage a crisis of Agung's current scope. A broad network between Indonesian government agencies, international aid organizations, and scientific organizations has helped Indonesia strengthen its crisis management planning. Pallister (2015) notes that in 2010, strategic partnerships between Indonesia and the VDAP saved between 10,000 and 20,000 lives.

Capacity planning is one of the most important parts of the crisis management plan. Encompassing multiple aspects of building resilience, capacity planning includes preparing civilian and military aviation to ensure safe rescue and relief services during and immediately after an eruption (Pallister, 2015). Aviation officials around the world also need improved training in how to fly through volcanic ash. Pilots from around the world might be required to provide rescue and relief assistance during the eruption, and commercial pilots need to be trained to mitigate disaster given the sheer volume of flights to and from Bali and the surrounding region.

Capacity planning also entails working closely with community leaders in Bali. Communicating the crisis management plan and delegating responsibility will help promote resilience and readiness. Capacity planning will also improve public trust, reducing anxiety and alleviating panic during the crisis. Public trust depends on information sharing, communication transparency, and education. Each crisis and evacuation center needs to be well equipped not just with essentials like water, food, and medical equipment, but also with communications devices. Each family should be given an information packet outlining best practices. Information packets and daily communications will also need to be shared with all communities across the island of Bali. Responding to the crisis is a collaborative, community effort.

Predict: Needs Assessment and Forecasting

The most basic, fundamental needs already exist in Bali: a community that is well aware of and has prior experience with volcanoes, a collective motivation to respond to the crisis as a community, and a strong legislative framework with institutional support at local, provincial, national, and transnational levels. Scientific knowledge, monitoring systems, and warning systems are also firmly in place. Mapping has been accomplished, with evacuation zones clearly delineated. The government has prepared evacuation centers with clear evacuation routes and assembly points. Transportation to the shelters is reliable, and security is in place at evacuation centers to prevent or mitigate social problems.

Although all these crucial elements are already in place, there are still areas that need to be addressed to benefit affected families. The first is a method of cataloging personal property, which will help families more easily apply for relief funding. It is predicted that an improved inventory of personal belongings will help families rebuild their communities after the disaster ("Developing a Volcano Emergency Plan," n.d.). A more robust inventory management and logistics system should also be implemented specifically for search, rescue, and medical care. The right information technology using linear programming is predicted to help better allocate limited resources. It is also predicted that flying medical equipment and personnel to the island now will reduce overall costs later.

It is further predicted that thousands of additional dollars are needed to secure sufficient safety equipment — such as masks and goggles — for people who are not being evacuated. The volcanic ash could leave particulates in the air for some time after the eruption. Depending on weather conditions, ash clouds could travel to areas that are currently unprepared for air contamination. Distributing information packets to all residents of Bali will help inform people how they can protect their livestock and other valuables to reduce financial loss.