This paper evaluates three locations in and near New York City—the Kuehne Chemical plant in South Kearny, New Jersey, the United Nations Headquarters, and Carnegie Hall—for security vulnerabilities and threats. Using vulnerability assessment methodologies and the Facility Characterization Matrix, the analysis prioritizes these sites according to their risk profiles. The Kuehne Chemical plant ranks highest due to its worst-case scenario involving two million pounds of stored chlorine gas and potential exposure to 12 million people. The UN Headquarters is second priority due to global threats against UN personnel. Carnegie Hall ranks third, vulnerable primarily because it is a high-capacity landmark venue in a densely populated area. The paper applies Department of Homeland Security frameworks and federal chemical facility regulations to assess each site's threat likelihood and severity.
Three locations in and near New York City are assessed for vulnerabilities and threats, then prioritized according to security considerations and analysis. The Kuehne Chemical plant in South Kearny, New Jersey, is the only one of the three selected locations that is inherently a risk to citizens. The other two selected locations—Carnegie Hall and the United Nations Headquarters—are vulnerable to threats and at risk primarily because they are notable Manhattan landmarks and often contain large assemblages of people.
Of the three locations, the Kuehne Chemical plant is the highest security priority due to the worst-case scenario for the site as estimated by the Department of Homeland Security, and as defined in their Risk Management Plan that was submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency. The United Nations Headquarters is the second security priority primarily because so many other opportunities to threaten and attack UN personnel exist around the globe. Carnegie Hall, a world-class, destination performance venue located just two short blocks from Central Park South in Manhattan, is the third security priority in this selection of locations.
Twenty-one minutes, or 8.1 miles, via I-78 West from New York City is a facility known as Kuehne Chemical plant; the chemical facility is located in South Kearny, New Jersey. The Department of Homeland Security has identified Kuehne Chemical plant as high risk, primarily because roughly two million pounds of chlorine gas is stored on the site.
Kuehne Chemical plant ranks as a facility that should undergo a vulnerability assessment since the total onsite inventory of chlorine gas is at or greater than threshold quantities for a chemical covered by Federal regulation 40 CFR 68.130. Federal regulation 40 CFR 68.130 lists Extremely Hazardous Substances (EHS) as reported to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The basis for listing chlorine gas on the EHS list is twofold: first, it was mandated for listing by Congress, and second, it is on the EHS list because it has a vapor pressure of 10 mmHg or greater. The threshold quantity for chlorine gas is 2,500 pounds; the total onsite inventory of chlorine gas at Kuehne Chemical is excessively beyond what is required for a vulnerability assessment.
The Risk Management Plan (RMP) Rule is a provision of amendments to the 1990 Clean Air Act that implements Section 112(r); RMPs are required to be resubmitted to the Environmental Protection Agency every five years. The Risk Management Plan submitted to the EPA by Kuehne Chemical plant defined a worst-case scenario classification for the site. According to a 2003 report from the Government Accountability Office, the Kuehne Chemical plant is one of 123 chemical facilities with worst-case scenario ratings, which indicate an accident could expose over one million people. Officials have estimated the potential number of people who would be affected by the worst-case scenario at 12 million, and that event could occur from "the release of just one full rail car of chlorine gas."
The use of a Facility Characterization Matrix to summarize the security factors for the Kuehne Chemical plant yields the following assessment:
Note that this application of the Facility Characterization Matrix is for on-site chemical storage and not for any particular processing activity that uses chemicals, which is the actual intent of the matrix.
The severity level for the Kuehne Chemical plant is S1, which is defined as follows: potential for any of the following resulting from a chemical release, detonation, or explosion includes worker fatalities, public fatalities, extensive property damage, facility disabled for more than one month, major environmental impacts, or evacuation of neighbors.
Site-specific threat types include terrorist outsiders, criminals, extremists, insiders, and vandals. The Level of Likelihood of Attack (LA) is LA3, defined as a threat that exists and is capable with intent or history, but has not targeted the facility. The third element of this level—"has not targeted the facility"—actually exists at an unknown level. The presumption would be that, given the publicity about the vulnerability of the facility and the potential scope of destruction, the possibility of site-specific threat is high.
The following information provides context for considering the vulnerability of Carnegie Hall and the United Nations Headquarters. New York City proper and Manhattan are located in Counter Terrorism Zone 1 (CTZ1). Manhattan is located in New York County, which is the most densely populated county in the United States. The 2013 Census estimated the population of New York County as 1,626,159 people on an area of land about 22.96 square miles, which translates to a density of 70,826 people per square mile.
During weekdays, business activity brings a commuter influx that drives the total population in the area to over 3.9 million people, which results in a density of 170,000 people per square mile. Although Manhattan is the smallest of New York City's five boroughs in terms of land area, it has the third-largest population of the boroughs (just after Brooklyn and Queens). Each year, more than 50 million people are estimated to visit New York City.
The United Nations Headquarters is located at 760 United Nations Plaza in the Turtle Bay neighborhood of Manhattan overlooking the East River. The UN Headquarters is sited on a complex that borders First Avenue on the west and East 42nd Street to the south, East 48th Street on the north, and the East River to the east. Interestingly, reference is made in official and journalistic circles to "Turtle Bay" as a metonym for the United Nations as a whole or for the UN Headquarters.
A number of significant buildings are located in the United Nations complex, including the General Assembly building—with a seating capacity of 1,800—the Dag Hammarskjöld Library, and the Conference and Visitors Center. Two large administrative buildings referred to as DC-1 and DC-2 are located at the addresses of 1 UN Plaza and 2 UN Plaza. A line of 193 flags from the UN member states runs just inside the perimeter fence of the complex. All mail sent to UN addresses is sterilized.
The United Nations Headquarters is a magnet for contention, occasional protests, and political stands. Protests around the Headquarters complex are considered relatively uncommon. Most of the open spaces around the complex, including Ralph Bunche Park and First Avenue itself, are too small for enormous gatherings of protesters. The New York City Police Department sometimes permits demonstrations on the Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, which is one block from the visitors' entrance, five blocks from the entrance used by the general staff, and four blocks from the entrance that top-level diplomats use. Several non-governmental, academic, and diplomatic organizations hold conferences in the Headquarters throughout the year, including a UN summer study program.
Several of the buildings in the complex would be attractive targets, particularly the 39-story Secretariat Building, which stands apart with the wide eastern exposure of the building visually unencumbered. Regardless of security measures, site-specific threat types include terrorist outsiders, criminals, extremists, insiders, and vandals. Threat forms have primarily been demonstrations and protests at United Nations international territory, which is technically within the United States. However, it is commonly known that threats against United Nations personnel in other countries have been deadly. The Level of Likelihood of Attack (LA) is LA1, defined as a threat that exists, is capable, has intent or history, and has targeted the facility.
"Historic venue architecture, capacity, and vulnerability factors"
Carnegie Hall is one of the last remaining large buildings in New York City constructed entirely of masonry without any type of steel frame. Near the turn of the twentieth century, however, a steel framework was added around certain segments of the building to accommodate the addition of several stories of studio spaces. Carnegie Hall was added to the National Register of Historic Places on December 29, 1962, and is a National Historic Landmark, located two blocks from Central Park South.
Despite the many Hollywood movies depicting music and dance performances as opportunities for attacks, many performances do not have substantive security measures or even bag checks. The online history of Carnegie Hall contains few instances of threats to the facility or the performers. Following the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, metal detectors were installed at Carnegie Hall's front entrance to screen spectators arriving for concerts. In 2006, when the West-Eastern Divan Orchestra debuted at Carnegie Hall, the audience passed through metal detectors amid security threats related to the nationalities of the orchestra members. Because international performers are frequently featured at Carnegie Hall, there are frequent opportunities for individuals with ethnic or national grievances to concoct plots designed to harm performers, audience members, and the facility. The studios and offices of firms in the upper stories and tower of Carnegie Hall provide additional egress to the building.
Security threats to Carnegie Hall are exacerbated by its beloved stature as one of several historical landmarks representing high culture in New York City. Carnegie Hall is a vulnerable target for attack since it contains a total of 3,671 seats across three halls, with additional stories atop the concert halls and a tower of studios and commercial offices. Site-specific threat types for Carnegie Hall include terrorist outsiders, criminals, extremists, insiders, and vandals. The Level of Likelihood of Attack (LA) is LA3, defined as a threat that exists and is capable, but has no intent or history and has not targeted the facility.
The three-point ranking of Kuehne Chemical plant, United Nations Headquarters, and Carnegie Hall reflects the severity of potential impact, regulatory classification, threat history, and likelihood assessment. The chemical facility presents the highest absolute risk due to the scale of potential casualties and the regulatory designation of worst-case scenario status. The UN Headquarters faces documented international threats against personnel globally. Carnegie Hall, while culturally significant and vulnerable as a large gathering venue, has no documented attack history and faces lower likelihood of targeting based on current threat assessments.
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