Populist Movements and the Refugee Crisis in Germany
This paper examines the relationship between the surge in refugee arrivals in Germany and the concurrent rise of populist movements, particularly the New Right and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. Beginning with an overview of Germany's dramatic increase in asylum seekers since 2006, the paper establishes a causal link between Angela Merkel's open-gate refugee policy and growing public dissatisfaction that fueled populist sentiment. It further explores an alternative causal explanation — that the AfD strategically exploited the refugee crisis to advance its political agenda and destabilize the mainstream political landscape. Drawing on survey data and political analysis, the paper concludes that both explanations are interrelated dimensions of a broader social and political transformation in Germany.
- Introduction: Refugee surge in Germany and paper's purpose
- The Rise of Populist Movements in Germany: New Right growth and anti-refugee sentiment
- Causality Between Populist Movements and the Refugee Crisis: Merkel's open-gate policy fuels populist dissatisfaction
- Alternative Causal Explanations: AfD exploits refugee crisis for political gain
- Conclusion: Dual causal synthesis of refugees and populism
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What makes this paper effective
- Presents a clear primary causal argument and then tests it against a credible alternative explanation, demonstrating critical analytical thinking.
- Uses concrete statistics (700,000+ asylum seekers in 2016; 745,545 arrivals; AfD's Bundestag performance) to ground abstract political claims in evidence.
- Draws on a focused set of academic and journalistic sources, balancing scholarly citation (Postelnicescu, 2016) with investigative reporting (Amann et al., 2015; Fischer, 2016; Leonard, 2016).
Key academic technique demonstrated
The paper demonstrates the technique of dual causal analysis: after establishing a primary causal chain (refugee influx → public anxiety → populist growth), it introduces and evaluates an alternative explanation (AfD's deliberate political opportunism), ultimately presenting both as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. This approach strengthens the argument's credibility by acknowledging complexity rather than oversimplifying causation.
Structure breakdown
The paper follows a five-part structure: an introduction establishing the refugee crisis context; a descriptive section on the New Right's emergence; a section arguing causal links between refugees and populism; a section presenting the AfD-opportunism alternative explanation; and a brief conclusion synthesizing both arguments. Each body section builds sequentially on the last, maintaining a clear argumentative thread throughout.
Introduction
Germany has witnessed a significant increase in the number of asylum seekers migrating into the country in recent years. As of 2016, the number of refugees seeking asylum in Germany exceeded 700,000 — a dramatic rise from fewer than 100,000 in 2006. This surge has coincided with a broader European refugee crisis that has generated intense debate over whether European nations should maintain core democratic values and freedoms alongside open borders (Postelnicescu, 2016). The increase in asylum seekers is largely attributable to the prevalence of terrorism as a global security concern and to the ongoing instability in the Middle East. For Germany specifically, the arrival of large numbers of refugees has seemingly sparked the rise of populist movements. This paper examines this causality and provides alternative causal explanations for the phenomenon.
The Rise of Populist Movements in Germany
Germany has experienced a significant increase in populist movements across the country, particularly the New Right movement. The rise of these movements is partly rooted in a sense of disillusionment on the right that has been building for several years. As a result, many Germans from the center of society have begun identifying with the New Right. This trend has occurred at a time when the refugee crisis has exacerbated public frustration, political debate has hardened, and incidents of violence have increased (Amann et al., 2015). The rise of the New Right in Germany is characterized by a public mood in which many people are united against the state, elected officials, and government institutions.
The rise of populist movements has been accompanied by the emergence of several prominent populist groups, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the neo-Nazi NPD. Public opposition to the state and its institutions was recently evident when representatives of these two groups voted against refugees in regional council proceedings. Given the emergence of these movements, Germany is gradually developing an antipathy toward democracy, while xenophobia is reported to be growing rapidly (Amann et al., 2015). There have been numerous cases of right-wing violence targeting refugees, with refugee hostels burned on a near-daily basis. While such acts are currently carried out by a radical minority, populist movements are becoming more attractive to broader segments of the German population than in previous decades.
References
Amann et al. (2015, December 11). The rise of Germany's New Right. Spiegel International. Retrieved November 17, 2017, from http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/refugee-crisis-drives-rise-of-new-right-wing-in-germany-a-1067384.html
Fischer, S. (2016, September 5). The rise of the populists — A problem for Merkel and Germany. Spiegel International. Retrieved November 17, 2017, from http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/rise-of-populist-afd-a-problem-for-merkel-and-germany-a-1110954.html
Leonard, M. (2016, March 5). The Germany crisis: Angela Merkel, refugees and the rise of the right. New Statesman. Retrieved November 17, 2017, from https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/03/germany-crisis-angela-merkel-refugees-and-rise-right
Postelnicescu, C. (2016, May). Europe's new identity: The refugee crisis and the rise of nationalism. Europe's Journal of Psychology, 12(2), 203–209.
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