Robotic Exoskeletons and Human Evolution: Three Scenarios

Introduction

Moore's Law has not only held true over the years, it has even been surpassed in recent years. This paper provides an analysis of two inventions developed at universities, applying Garreau's Radical Evolution GRIN framework — Genomics, Robotics, Information Technology, and Nanotechnology — to evaluate their significance. It begins with a synopsis of Garreau's main ideas and the assumptions behind them, then examines how those ideas apply to the inventions. Finally, the paper evaluates the potential of these inventions through the lens of Kurzweil's "heaven," Joy's "hell," and Lanier's "prevail" scenarios before drawing conclusions about these trends.

Two University Exoskeleton Inventions

Invention No. 1 — University of Tsukuba, Japan. Scientists at this university invented a partial-body robotic exoskeleton capable of allowing even polio victims to walk again. The exoskeleton is powered by mechno-servers that amplify the wearer's existing physical abilities and provide ways to otherwise control the exoskeleton appendages in cases of disability (Chiu, 2009).

Invention No. 2 — University of Twente, the Netherlands. A team of researchers at this Dutch university invented a lower-body exoskeleton that can help paraplegics walk and allows eight degrees of freedom in movement. This invention was commercially available in mid-2012 (Top ten robotic exoskeletons, 2013).

Garreau's Radical Evolution: Main Ideas and Assumptions

The first main idea advanced by Garreau is that people today live during a period in history when it has become possible to extend human life indefinitely. According to Garreau (2006b), "We are at a turning point in history. For the first time, our technologies are not so much aimed outward at modifying our environment" (p. 32). Technologies are increasingly aimed at modifying the internal environment as well, facilitating the human-computer interface. As Garreau emphasizes, "Increasingly, [technologies] are aimed inward — at modifying our minds, memories, metabolisms, personalities, and progeny" (p. 32). A reasonable scenario from this perspective would be an extension of the human lifespan within somewhat reasonable limits, perhaps as long as 200 years.

The second main idea concerns the implications of these trends for humanity. A full century of science fiction in which humans become robot-like through technological innovations is becoming reality today, and these trends have caused many observers to ask what the implications are for the human species. The introduction of exoskeletons such as those described above is consistent with these trends, but the implications remain unclear. As Garreau asks, "If we can do that — not in some distant science-fiction future but in the next five, 10, 15 years — then are we not talking about altering what it means to be human?" (2006a, p. 33).

A third idea advanced by Garreau is that technological innovation will outpace the Grim Reaper in the near future. Moore's Law may need to be reconceptualized, since its thesis that computer processing speeds double approximately every 18 months has been compressed to just a few months — and many experts predict that these rates will continue to accelerate. According to Younger (2006), "In the last decade, we have become the first species to start directly altering and enhancing our intellectual and physical gifts. The amazing capabilities of our genetic, robotic, information, and nano processes — call them the GRIN technologies — are doubling every few months" (p. 33).

According to Garreau, the logical extension of these trends suggests that the day may come — and sooner than many people think — when the cyber-mechanical-exoskeleton human interface becomes sufficiently sophisticated to pass the Turing test. Garreau emphasizes that, "It may not be long before you run into a young lady so seriously modified that you might ask whether she represents a transcendence comparable to the difference between Neanderthals and today's humans" (2006b, p. 34). Just how much of the "human" can be replaced before people are no longer human? These changes in physicality will surely have some effect on the individual psyche, but when does the spark of humanity depart?

After the kidneys, spleen, heart, lungs, liver, and other vital organs have been replaced? Or after the legs, torso, and arms have been replaced with a full-body exoskeleton? Some theorists such as Garreau argue that it will even be possible to transfer the entire store of human memory and emotion into these "cybermechanopeople," so that the essence of individuals can live on long after their physical deaths. As Garreau puts it, "She might have a significantly transformed mind, memory, metabolism, and personality. You'd be curious whether this had changed her immortal soul" (2006a, p. 34). This final scenario is a chilling prospect in many ways, though it may not be fully achievable, as noted below.

One of the fundamental assumptions of Garreau's thesis is that technology will outpace human frailties. Other authorities argue, however, that the biology and physics involved may reach their logical limits long before computer processing speeds reach theirs. As Braun (2011) points out, "In the year 2011, we do not possess the medical knowledge or the technological ability to radically extend the lifespan of a human" (p. 48). Braun suggests it may not be possible to extend the human lifespan beyond the century mark by any measurable degree: "We have a much greater understanding of human biology, genetics, and the importance of nutrition than previous generations, but nothing proven to help someone live beyond the 122-year record lifespan" (2011, p. 48).

References

Braun, C. (2011, Fall). The mortals and the immortals: Can science deliver what religion has long promised for eternal life? Skeptic, 17(1), 46–51.

Chiu, Y-T. (2009, August 19). Exoskeletons are on the march. IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved from

Garreau, J. (2006a). Radical evolution: The promise and peril of enhancing our minds, our bodies — and what it means to be human.

Garreau, J. (2006b, Winter). The next 30 years. The Wilson Quarterly, 30(1), 32–37.

Top ten robotic exoskeletons. (2013). InfoNIAC. Retrieved from http://www.infoniac.com/hi-tech/top-10-robotic-exoskeletons.html.

Younger, S. M. (2006, Winter). Is peace possible? The Wilson Quarterly, 30(1), 37–39.