Campaign Strategy to Defeat an Incumbent in Wisconsin CD-8

Introduction and District Overview

This campaign plan targets incumbent Reid Ribble (R-Wis.) in Wisconsin's 8th U.S. House District for several strategic reasons. This is Ribble's first term in Congress; Wisconsin was a swing state in the last presidential election; and we believe we have a credible candidate given the voter demographics. Ribble himself defeated incumbent Steve Kagen by a 10% margin in 2010, which mirrored the prior two presidential elections, when Wisconsin voted 55% for Bush in 2004 but then gave Obama 54% in 2008 (Proximity, 2011). We hope to repeat that trend in District 8 ("CD-8") by turning Ribble's 55% lead over Kagen around.

A quick survey of the political landscape suggests that given a fractured GOP and vocal discontent with the Obama administration, the time will be right for a strong independent candidate to take WI CD-8 in 2012. While Ribble enjoys clear strategic advantages as an incumbent, this campaign plan outlines in detail how we will not only overcome those advantages but unify apparently irreconcilable constituencies across the district.

Voter Demographics of Wisconsin CD-8

The U.S. Census Bureau's "Fast Facts for Congress" (2010a) reveals a 92% white, suburban, lower-middle-class electorate: 49.9% male, 57% married, with a higher high-school graduation rate than the U.S. average but a lower college-education rate than the national figure. The district has one percent more civilian veterans than the national average, about one-fourth the share of immigrants as the national average, and one-fifth the national Latino average. The labor force participation rate in CD-8 is 4% higher than national rates, but per capita, household, and family median incomes are all at least one thousand dollars below the U.S. average. Individuals and families below the poverty level were both below national averages by approximately 3% in 2010.

CD-8 skews slightly older than the nation: 14.2% of residents are over 65, and the median age is 39.3 years compared to the national median of 36.5. These demographic details will shape every element of the campaign strategy that follows.

Candidate Profile and Incumbent Vulnerabilities

Ribble styles himself perfectly within these demographics — an upstanding white male business leader, president of several construction firms, a hometown boy who made good through hard work, Christian ethics, and the American way. During his first term in Congress he sponsored four bills, none of which passed (OpenCongress, 2011). While that represents an admirable effort for any junior representative, we will use these attributes and demographics to defeat him in 2012, even though he enjoys the usual incumbent advantages of franking privileges, subsidized travel, and taxpayer-funded staff.

Incumbents typically enjoy greater name recognition than challengers due to their exposure at public events and community organizations. We considered running our candidate in several Wisconsin House districts and even the Senate, but chose CD-8 largely because Ribble has not yet finished his first term and has yet to accomplish any significant legislation. We also overcome the name-recognition disadvantage through our own candidate's superior profile: our candidate is Mrs. Dodgson, wife of the late Rep. Gaylord Nelson Dodgson, who served as District 8's elected representative ten times before being unseated in 1992. Rep. Dodgson passed away in 2005, and after nearly a decade Mrs. Dodgson, now 61, has decided to carry on her husband's work by reclaiming District 8 and ultimately pursuing a seat in the Wisconsin Senate. While Ribble holds the incumbent's advantage at the moment, once we unveil Mrs. Dodgson, his first-term presence will be all but forgotten.

Fundraising Strategy and Donor Analysis

Another advantage incumbents typically enjoy is the ability to raise funds both inside and outside the district. Challengers often struggle to raise a few thousand dollars before they can hire professional staff. Mrs. Dodgson, however, has spent the past twenty years building millions of dollars in donor relationships as a volunteer and paid development director for many of Wisconsin's largest charitable organizations, including the state United Way, the Milwaukee and Madison Art Museums, and the National Association of University Women, among others. While none of these nonprofits may donate to political campaigns without specific IRS designation, Carrie's address book contains the wealthiest and most active donors in the state — including both U.S. Senators, whom she has frequently entertained — and none of them appear on Ribble's donor list with the Federal Election Commission (n.d.). Ribble may present himself as a business insider, but Rep. Dodgson left his wife an estate worth over $80 million, ten million of which he set aside specifically for her to continue his political work, including running for office. Carrie enters this race with a personal war chest of $1 million and aims to outraise Ribble four to one.

Ribble's donor list reveals further strategic weakness because it covers only a narrow slice of the CD-8 demographic. Mostly comprised of building and trade associations, insurance and banking corporations, right-wing foundations, and lobbying groups, it is notably absent of several powerful constituencies the Dodgson campaign will capture — constituencies that carry some of the highest participation rates in the electorate. Mrs. Dodgson comes from an iron-mining family in Cary, one district west, worked her way through Green Bay's Bellin Nursing College, and then deployed to Vietnam with the U.S. Army, where she met Mr. Dodgson before his first House election. Her opponent may claim to have worked his way to the top, but in truth it was to the top of his father's firm, while the Dodgson constituency includes organized labor, nurses, higher education, and the 50.1% of eligible CD-8 women — who, incidentally, earn consistently less than men in Ribble's district despite higher education rates (U.S. Census, 2010a).