This paper systematically examines the 2012 presidential campaign strategies deployed in Florida by analyzing 56 candidate visits between September and November 2011. It documents how Republican candidates and incumbent President Obama prioritized Florida as a critical swing state, with particular attention to how candidates addressed senior voters' concerns about Social Security, tax reform, and economic policy. The analysis reveals that candidate visit frequency correlated with straw poll performance and demonstrates how demographic composition—particularly Florida's large elderly population—shaped campaign messaging and resource allocation. The paper concludes that Florida's strategic importance stems from its diverse voter base, high senior turnout, and role as a bellwether state in presidential elections.
In theory, all states are created equal. However, when election time rolls around, this is not necessarily the case. Four states are generally considered to be swing states, and if politics is the business of winning elections, and winning elections is contingent upon mobilizing crowds in important locations, then it is essential to focus on Florida as well as the Midwest throughout the duration of a political campaign. Despite the prominence of Iowa and New Hampshire, where the first primaries are held, swing states are far more important to consider.
The ultimate swing states are Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, which contain a mix of racial and political cultures and therefore often tend to vote with the most active candidates in their areas. Missouri has voted on the winning side in virtually every presidential election since 1904, with two exceptions: 1956, when voters selected Adlai Stevenson in his loss to incumbent Dwight Eisenhower, and 2008, when they voted for John McCain. As the key to the West and the crossroads between the North and the South, Missouri retains its position as the gateway to the presidency despite recent struggles.
Ohio likewise contains a large contingent of Southern voters who cross the river from Kentucky. But its geographic location in the Midwest subjects it to liberal influences that counteract the conservative Southern vote. Additionally, Ohio contains Cleveland, with its economic shortcomings, and Cincinnati, which is relatively affluent. Both of these states provide no specific route to victory.
But Florida, with its population of elderly residents, offers a clear path through which to attain publicity, gather momentum, and raise funds. The aged have specific demands but also disposable income, and they turn out in droves for elections. As perhaps the most engaged state in the political process, it is essential for candidates to deliver substantive messages in speeches to Florida residents. These messages come in the form of tax reform, entitlements, and rebuilding economic confidence.
Some candidates, however, fail to travel to Florida, instead seeking to gain momentum by wooing voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. The outcome of the primaries in these two states determines the future of all campaigns, and it is indeed a dangerous game to ignore them. In essence, some candidates feel that Florida may boost their short-term prospects, but New Hampshire and Iowa are the real prizes. Yet given the reapportionment of districts and Florida's gains in electoral votes, this has acted to make Florida a more popular destination for aspiring presidential candidates.
A total of fifty-six candidate trips were identified from presidential hopefuls in both parties between September 5 and November 9, 2011. These events were nearly all hosted by Republican GOP party candidates; Obama, being the only Democrat in the group, only represented three events, which were subsequently conducted all within a single month. However, it should also be noted that even though Obama did not appear himself with great frequency, other members of the Democratic Party campaigned on his behalf. Examples include Vice President Joe Biden and First Lady Michelle Obama.
Herman Cain led the GOP field in the total number of events held, with twelve visits. However, this may be somewhat misleading considering that several of the events were held to promote his book. Newt Gingrich also held one event focused on his documentary film. However, these events were included in the analysis since they represented an alternative way for candidates to promote their messages and visions for the future of the United States. Many of the events were also held in close proximity to debates, which is a reasonable strategy considering that candidates would make the best use of their time in Florida.
One of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination in 2012 is Mitt Romney, who has been a leader in the number of Florida events. After initially traveling to Florida for a debate on September 22, in early October Romney visited The Villages, a retirement community just outside of Orlando, to speak about Social Security and other possible reforms. In an October 6 article, Robert Walker discussed the impact of elderly voters on coming elections and reported Romney's statement: "Let's get Social Security working for the coming generations as it has worked for the current and past generations. Let's solve and save Social Security."
Social Security, the critical issue for many seniors, has come to determine the fate of candidacies over the last two decades. As the system of social welfare for the elderly looks increasingly more fragile, efforts at reform have been continually thwarted by those who benefit in the most immediate short-term—the current elderly—without regard for those whose benefits may yet be exhausted. Tackling the issue, therefore, is exceedingly tricky. A transformational leader must first win the support of the aged, then subtly shift course. Romney made his visit to Florida primarily with the purpose of winning the support of older Americans.
As of early October, Romney was confronted with several competitors for the Republican nomination: Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and others were also vying for the nomination. As Perry's campaign began to falter, Romney chose to use his visit to Florida as an opportunity to attempt to weaken the governor of Texas's candidacy altogether. Perry had criticized Romney's campaign in the debate in Orlando in late September, and Romney responded by speaking at length about the flaws with Perry's tax plan to the audience at The Villages.
The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, campaigned for the Republican nomination on an image of charm and truthfulness, positioning himself as a candidate for the common person. Perry's appeal to the old Southern political majority, which retains its ideal of very limited federal government, low taxation, and heavy individualism and self-reliance, combined with his appeal to the religious right. His appeal to Floridians came from "being open and honest with the people of Florida and letting them know what he is planning to do with the issues that are important to them."
In late September, from the 21st through the 23rd, Perry traveled to Florida to discuss his plans for tax reform and Social Security and to participate in the major presidential debate in Orlando. Perry visited Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach on the 21st, participated in the debate on the 22nd, and remained in Orlando on the 23rd. Perry used the opportunity to discuss a broad array of issues, attacking Romney's middle-class image and noting the distinction between an unemployed Romney—with a net worth estimated at close to $250 million—and the unemployed masses, which comprised 10.7 percent of Floridians, not including students, the retired, and those who had given up searching for work.
Perry's focus, in contrast with Romney's, was on tax policy, which likely cost him politically. Though the issue is hugely relevant, it can be discussed at any time, and despite a large class of wealthy Floridians with disposable income, there remains an equally large class of less-well-to-do minorities. A stronger focus on a specific issue pertaining to the unique demographic base in Florida may have served Perry better, especially as during the debate itself, he faltered.
Perry's mission in Florida was multi-pronged. Aside from the debate and a chance to discuss the issues, Florida presented Perry with an opportunity to impress potential campaign donors. It was predicted at that time that Perry would overtake Romney as the leading beneficiary of extra disposable income in Florida. The data collected suggests that Perry's Florida events were composed of a majority of fundraising events, which further supports this position. Most of Perry's fundraising events were conducted over meals in which donors purchased tickets to attend.
Herman Cain surprised many with an upset victory in a straw poll in Florida following the debate of September 22. Cain won with 37 percent of the vote, more than double his nearest competitor Perry at 15.4 percent, and far ahead of the rest of the pack, which featured Romney third at 14 percent, Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum fourth with 10.9 percent, Texas Representative Ron Paul fifth with 10.4 percent, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich sixth with 8.4 percent, former Utah Governor John Huntsman seventh with 2.26 percent, and Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann eighth with 1.5 percent.
Cain followed up on this surprise boost with a trip to Central Florida in the first week of October, visiting the same location where Romney went and at the same time. Cain used the trip to promote his book, a memoir, and to talk about his 9-9-9 plan for tax reform. Cain stated that talking specifics helped him connect with voters, taking a subtle jab at his competition, particularly Romney.
The rest of the presidential pack, all Republicans, made spotty visits to Florida, with very few occurring in the period between September 5, 2011, and November 9, 2011, other than for the purposes of the September 22 debate. This debate was attended by Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson.
Newt Gingrich's last visit to Florida prior to the study period was on January 27, 2011, when he visited Jacksonville. He did make an appearance on "Political Connections" on September 30 in which he discussed the future of the space program. Bachmann visited Florida just prior to Labor Day in an attempt to raise funds for her continuing campaign. Huntsman traveled to Florida just after Labor Day, addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition on September 9 and discussing several major issues including jobs, the economy, and international relations. He favored a renovation of the tax code and removal of corporate welfare as potential solutions to the recent and sustained economic woes.
Rick Santorum made a brief stop in Naples, Florida on November 5, where he was establishing his campaign headquarters, and headed to West Palm Beach on the following weekend. He discussed his platform on energy, foreign relations, and economic policy, particularly with regards to the security of Israel and Iran's perpetual nuclear threat.
"Low approval ratings; jobs bill messaging; campaign fundraising with celebrities"
"Demographics outweigh voter numbers; visit frequency predicts success; government role debate"
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