¶ … Bets: Quiz 25%. key concepts: What does "little bets" mean?

There are two types of innovators. One kind of innovator is conceptual and can make great discoveries early in life. However, there is another type of innovator that can make breakthroughs through "little bets." These are small, incremental, and usually slow experiments that are a driver for innovation.

"Little bets are concrete actions taken to discover, test, and develop ideas that are achievable and affordable. They begin as creative possibilities that get iterated and refined over time, and they are particularly valuable when trying to navigate amid uncertainty, create something new, or attend to open-ended problems."

Little Bets,

What is the difference between conceptual and experimental innovators?

There are several differences between conceptual and experimental innovators. The conceptual innovator is generally blessed with a large amount of natural talent that allows them to conceptualize abstract concepts that allows them to achieve breakthrough ideas that can revolutionize a conceptual model. By contrast, the experimental innovator focuses on small incremental changes...

Army's approach to the Cold War and to Vietnam? What does it teach us?
The U.S. Army provides a lot of insight about how a highly bureaucratic, command and control organization can become more adaptive and creative. During the Cold War the army needed to be highly in sync and top down in nature to prepare for the a Soviet ground war and they prepared accordingly. However, McNamara in Vietnam bet that a large bombing would eventually reduce the opposition's resistance. The U.S. predominately stuck to this strategy while the opposition changed their strategy to adapt to the circumstances. Although the U.S. strategy made sense, there was the "illusion of rationality" that would not let the U.S. strategy become adaptive enough to deal with the complexities of war. A spreadsheet with data might seem infallible but does not represent real life.

Compare "little bets" to the "law of large numbers."

Making little bets help to show that we can have better results by not applying the all…