Concepts of probability

Probability -- Subjective, relative frequency, and probabilistic propensity

According to the academic definition of probability, the concept of probability involves a choice of some class of events (or statements) and an assignment of some meaning to probability claims about those events (or statements). For example, drawings from a deck of cards (with replacement) would be defined as PR (A/B) or as the number of possible drawings in which A occurs over the total number over which B. occurs. Such a definition of probability would be used when determining, for instance, if ESP existed -- the probability of randomly predicting cards held by the examiner would be determined, the relative frequency certain cards appeared during a particular session, as well as the subjective determinant of how likely it was such phenomena existed cognitively within the human brain. (Bartha, "Probability," 2004) If the subject could predict the unseen card more than would be probabilistic, then this would be the establishment of some evidence that the sixth sense of ESP existed, but this would not be proof, as subjectively the bias of the examiner and other possible causes would have to be taken into account. ("Subjective Probability," 2001)

To use another example from the social sciences, that of the observations of Charles Darwin consider that diversity, complexity and adaptation of the biological realm is evident. Until Darwin, the most apparent probable explanation for these three features of the biological was the "argument from design," or God. ("Fitness," Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2003) Darwin's theory of natural selection provided an explanation of all three of these features of the biological realm without adverting to some mysterious designing entity, thus making it valid on a level of subjective probability, as well as was relatively probable, given the fossil records and environmental variations of the same observed species.