Crime Analysis and Crime Trends

The crime trend for this jurisdiction is increasing in 5 of 7 areas and that the crime rate in one area is even, while the trend is down in one area, as well. Robberies are up the most with a rise of 44% year over year. The area in which crime is up the second most is in homicides, with the rate rising 40% year over year. Aggravated assaults are up 35% while burglaries are up 10% and larceny is up 9%. Motor vehicle thefts are even and forcible rape is down 17%. Overall, there is more crime in the jurisdiction this year than there was the previous year.
Missing Information
Information that is missing that might explain some of the increases include how many Part II crimes were committed in the same jurisdiction, as this would help to give a more complete picture. Other data would include external factors such as: what is the state of the economy in the jurisdiction, what is the demographic—i.e., has the population changed at all (who are the victims or who is committing the crime). As Lopez (2016) notes, other factors could include whether or not gang activity is on the rise, whether or not there is more activity in the jurisdiction in terms of people coming and going, businesses opening or closing, and more opportunities for crime being made possible.
Other information that could be useful is the number of crimes estimated to go unreported along with the number of attempted crimes reported. For instance, were there reports of attempted rape, attempted burglary, attempted motor vehicle theft, and so on. It would also be helpful to know where these crimes were committed, at what time of day, whether the perpetrators were apprehended, and who the victims were. This information would be useful in explaining the crime increases because it might shed some light on when the area is most vulnerable and whether there is a lack of policing involved at that time of day or in that region that might make crime rates higher in these areas.
Still more information that could be useful are theories such as broken windows theory and models like community policing: what is the condition of the community like—is it in a state where crime is more likely to take place because there is little upkeep in the neighborhood? If so, broken windows theory could explain the increase in crime (Wilson & Kelling, 1982). Part II crimes could be more prevalent in neighborhoods where the community has been negligent in upkeep, and this could potentially be connected to increases in Part I crimes. Likewise, whether policing procedures have changed could be an indication of why crime rates are rising. Is racial profiling occurring? Is community policing being practiced? What models have been implemented in the past year that are different from the previous year might also be an indication of how to explain crime trend increases.
Crimes Staying the Same
The only crimes found to be staying the same are motor vehicle thefts. Every other type of crime has increased, aside from forcible rapes in the jurisdiction, which have decreased.
Analysis
All of the crimes can be analyzed a little closer in the hopes of finding a trend. Long-term trends could be identified, operational strategies could be identified, and analysis of crimes to determine whether they are being perpetrated by repeat offenders are all aims of analysis that could be pursued.
What I would try to identify are long-term trends for administrative purposes in all the crime areas, from homicide on down to larceny. This would be administrative analysis and the purpose would be to compare trends and rates while looking at economic, geographic and police management information to see if there are any relationships that might help address the increase in crime from an administrative position.
Strategic crime analysis could be conducted with each as well to see what police services are being conducted in the areas where the crimes are committed and to see what operational strategies might be implemented as solutions to the increasing rates.
Tactical analysis could be conducted in order to see if there are any patterns that might indicate a crime wave to help officers on duty provide a quicker response to offenses and be more efficient about patrolling these areas during high crime times of the day.
Part I and Part II Crimes
Part I crimes are serious offenses that are gathered into the Crime Index and include homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft and larceny. So all of these crimes are Part I crimes. Part II crimes are less serious crimes, and include offenses such as forgery, fraud, embezzlement, stolen property (buying, receiving or possessing), vandalism, carrying or possessing weapons, sex offenses, drug abuse violations, gambling, driving under the influence, disorderly conduct and drunkenness.
References
Lopez, G. (2016). Why violent crime increased. Retrieved from
https://www.vox.com/2015/9/8/9273139/murder-rates-rising-sharply
Wilson, J. & Kelling, G. (1982). Broken windows: The police and neighborhood safety.
Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows/304465/