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Psychological Traps and Intuitive Decision-Making
Psychological traps can be especially dangerous when engaging in decision-making. There are a number of different psychological traps that leaders and decision makers can fall into. This paper will discuss some of these traps, explain how they affect decisions and the intuitive decision-making process, and provide two examples of how this can be seen in the “Korea 1950” case study.
One type of psychological trap is the anchoring trap, which occurs when a decision maker gives disproportionate weight to the first bit of information received, allowing this tidbit of data to inform and shape his entire outlook when subsequent data would better help to explain a situation so that a more informed and rational decision could be made.[footnoteRef:2] The status-quo trap occurs when one has a bias towards maintaining a current situation even though better options exist for organizing or implementing a course of action. This trap can cause a leader to keep an organization from achieving its objectives out of fear or pride. The sunk-cost trap occurs when one continues to repeat the same mistakes of the past: an individual will make choices not based on objective assessment but rather out of a prejudice or desire to see previous choices justified—i.e.,...
[2: John Hammond, Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa, “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making” Harvard Business Review (1999), https://hbr.org/1998/09/the-hidden-traps-in-decision-making-2]
Psychological traps can be dangerous because if the decision maker is not aware of them, he can unconsciously fall into them. Past experiences can help a decision maker to improve his intuitive decision making, but having alternate perspectives can also be a safeguard against falling into psychological traps. To make good decisions, one must engage in analysis and synthesis of data. Leaders have to use their intellect, knowledge, experience and education as inputs when they make decision.
In the “Korea 1950” case, it can be seen how decision-makers’ understanding is affected by personality, past experience, and cognitive bias. One of the psychological traps that Gen. MacArthur fell into when he made an intuitive decision to appoint Almond to command X Corps was the status-quo trap. Almond was considered “safe” by MacArthur because of the former’s loyalty to the latter. MacArthur was judging on past experience while the situation at hand…
Bibliography
Hammond, John; Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa, “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making” Harvard Business Review (1999), https://hbr.org/1998/09/the-hidden-traps-in-decision-making-2
Rielly, Bob. “Defeat from Victory: Korea 1950,” Case Study.
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