Psyched Out After Being Told

Psyched Out

After being told that due to her brother's chronic depression she suffers a forty percent chance of suffering from the condition herself, the availability heuristic phenomenon could cause Heike to think that she will certainly suffer from depression simply because an example of someone who "beat the odds" -- i.e. her brother -- is so readily available. Basically, Heike will consider the possibility of her developing a case of chronic depression as more likely than others, possibly even to the point of inevitability, simply because she is more aware of the condition and its prevalence (or at least a notion of its prevalence, despite its falsehood) than the general population. Drowning is much more likely to occur than a shark attack, but the shark attack is more memorable and more newsworthy -- therefore people are more likely to be frightened of it. The same basic mechanism could come into play in this scenario, skewing actual likelihoods based on perceptions.

The way that Heike's parents warned her of her risk for chronic depression could itself have implications on her fears for developing the condition, regardless of the inaccuracy of her parents' information. They told her that she had a forty-percent chance of developing the condition, which sounds like (and in fact is) a very high number -- close enough to fifty percent that it seems highly likely, perhaps. If, however, her parents had informed her that she had a sixty percent chance of NOT developing chronic depression -- which is of course the exact mathematical equivalent and thus the same information, just stated differently -- Heike might not worry as much. Being told the infomratio0n in a negative manner is more likely to lead to a negative assumption, and vice versa.

If Heike tends to trust her parents and her family for their closeness and similarities, then the confirmation bias could also come into play in this situation. This psychological bias tends to make people believe what they already believe, only stronger; any inkling that Heike has that she might be feeling depressed is now more likely to convince her that she truly is depressed, perhaps even chronically so. Because the information is coming to her from her parents, whom she is likely to trust, the information regarding her likelihood of developing chronic depression (false though it may be) will probably be believed and taken to heart. Even if she then comes across more accurate information that suggests a far lower familial incidence of chronic depression, lowering her actual chances of developing the condition, Heike will be likely to discount this information in favor of the preconceived notions she has already developed.