Terrorism: Proximity and Timing

¶ … Terrorist Behavior A National Institute of Justice (NIJ) study of terrorist activity has concluded that terrorists generally live in the community where they plan to engage in terrorist activity. However, the study also concluded that the four types of terrorist groups identified vary in the amount of preparatory time and acts committed prior to their intended terrorist act.

Armed with this knowledge police and other law enforcement agencies can identify possible terrorists from the preparatory acts committed as well as ascertain the possible time of the terrorist attack from the type of terrorist group. In the study the NIJ included a number of primary terrorist attacks, along with preparatory acts, engaged in by a variety of different terrorist groups. These included attacks by international, right-wing, left-wing and single issue terrorists (environmental terror groups).

The study concluded that 44% of all terrorists, regardless of their affiliation, lived within 30 miles of their intended targets. (Smith, 2008, p.3) But there was a difference in the type of terrorist group and where they lived in relation to their intended target. For instance, international terrorists lived close to their intended targets while right-wing terrorists generally lived in rural areas and carried out their attacks in nearby cities.

The average may well have demonstrated that close to half of all terrorists live within a relatively close distance to their intended target but an examination of the actual groups and their targets indicates that the type of terrorist groups is a factor in the proximity of the attack. As acts of terror generally involve planning and preparations, the number and proximity of preparatory acts has been discovered to also be a factor in the actions of terrorists.

The NIJ study included 93 preparatory acts committed by international terrorists, 55 acts by right-wing groups, 80 acts by single-issue environmental groups, and 8 acts by left-wing terrorists. (Smith, 2008, p.3) Preparatory acts include surveillance and gathering intelligence on intended targets, robberies and other crimes intended to raise funds, as well as weapons and explosive crimes. Like the actual acts of terror, the study found that terrorists committed many of these preparatory acts relatively close to both their homes and intended targets.

However, while terrorists may have committed some preparatory acts close to home, acts such as robberies, thefts, and burglaries were usually committed much further away as a means of diverting attention from their actual terrorist activities. When the preparatory acts are compared to the actual terrorist act in terms of time, the study discovered that the time of the preparatory action when compared to the terrorist action is directly related to the type of terrorist group involved.

For example, a single-issue terrorist group with a decentralized authority and lone-wolf strategies will conduct the majority of their preparatory acts within a week of their actual terrorist act. These types of terrorist actions usually require less preparatory acts and therefore less time to prepare for the attack. But on the other hand international terrorists will "engage in nearly three times as many preparatory acts per incident as their environmental counterparts." (Smith, 2008, pp. 4-5) And as a result will require much more time to carry out their preparations.

In fact the study concluded that the average preparation time required for an international terrorist groups to carry out preparations for a terrorist attack was 92 days, while the average for environmental groups was just 14. Therefore one can conclude that international terrorists live closer to their targets and carry out most of their preparatory acts close to their targets over a long period of time while domestic terrorists carry out both their attacks and preparations further from their homes but in a shorter period of time.

Finally because of this information police now have a number of patterns to follow when investigating possible terrorist activities. For instance, terrorists will usually engage in at least some local preparations and while much of this will not be illegal, knowing it is going on can be beneficial to police. Also, knowing that terrorist groups are engaging in preparatory actions can be an indication of when they plan to carry out an attack.

When environmental terrorists carry out preparatory actions this may be an indication that an attack is coming soon, possibly within.