Global water supply and demand projections for 2075

¶ … Water Supply and Demand in 2075

Global Resource Proposal

Difference in Water Demand and Supply in 2075

The World Health Organization has quantified the amount of water needed to sustain human life (Howard and Bartram, 2003), although the organization's primary concern is water quality (WHO/UNICEF, 2013). Given the projected growth rates in population and its expected peak around 2075 (U.N., 2004), there is a need to better understand whether the world's water supply will be sufficient.

The world's water supply will also be strained by growing economic activity, which is currently growing fastest in developing nations like China (Behren, Giljum, Kovanda, and Niza, 2007). Based on computer simulation models, the regions experiencing the greatest population growth will face limited water supplies that may be insufficient to sustain human life (Hanasaki, 2012).

Theoretical Framework

Making adequate projections concerning demand pressures on renewable resources is essential for making informed policy decisions that protect human health, economic systems, and utilized resources. When demand outstrips supply for an essential resource like water, then legislative measures may need to be enacted to minimize the impact on society.

Towards this goal, the increased water demand that a growing global population will generate will be assessed using published data and estimates. Doing so should allow making rough estimates of the difference, region by region, between water demand and supply.

Statement of Research Purpose

The goal of this research project will be to exploit existing data and published estimates for calculating the difference between water demand and supply, globally and regionally, thereby allowing policymakers to make the necessary changes to cope with an impending water crisis.

Proposed Research Approach

The WHO has estimated that a lactating woman needs 7.5 L. Of potable water per day (Howard and Bartram, 2003), but this varies considerably based on access to water supplies. If the most recent growth trends in economic activity (Behren, Giljum, Kovanda, and Niza, 2007) are used as the basis for projections out to 2075, then the amount of water needed to keep up with demand can be calculated. The projected water supply needed to meet personal needs and economic growth can then be compared to estimates of available water supply region by region.

Summary of Proposed Methods

The population growth projections are readily available for most regions and globally (U.N., 2004). Estimates of water volumes needed for personal use and economic activity can be culled from online government and non-governmental organizations, in addition to the research literature (e.g., Behren, Giljum, Kovanda, and Niza, 2007). Water needs by region can also be determined through similar sources (e.g., Hanasaki et al., 2013). When combined, an estimate of the water demand and supply in 2070 can be calculated.