This paper examines the projected effects of climate change on cranberry production in New Jersey, a crop currently yielding approximately 547,500 barrels annually and contributing $20.3 million to the state's economy. Drawing on sources covering temperature increases and shifting precipitation patterns, the paper argues that growing conditions will deteriorate over the next 50 years and worsen further over the following century. It also considers how cranberry farming itself contributes to climate change, evaluates whether New Jersey should continue growing cranberries, and recommends alternative crops — particularly tomatoes and corn — better suited to a warmer future climate.
New Jersey's cranberry industry currently produces approximately 547,500 barrels annually, contributing roughly $20.3 million to the state's economy. Despite this strong baseline, cranberries are highly sensitive to environmental conditions, and climate change poses a serious long-term threat to their continued production in the region. Climate change is resulting in hotter temperatures, which, as the Bangor Daily News reported, is "undermining" cranberry harvests (Walsh, 2011). This paper argues that climate change will create negative growing conditions for cranberries in New Jersey over the next 50 years, and even worse conditions over the next 100 years.
Cranberries grow best in weather that is not excessively hot (Walsh, 2011). Temperatures are projected to rise significantly over the next 50 years (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2014), making it increasingly difficult for cranberries to thrive. As a result, the yield from this crop will likely decline from current levels (Colimore, 2009). The combination of heat stress on the plants and the disruption of the cool growing seasons that cranberries require makes a reduction in productivity almost inevitable under these projections.
At the rate that temperatures have been increasing, conditions will be even hotter in 100 years than they will be in 50 (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). Cranberries thrive in cooler weather (Walsh, 2011), and the northeastern United States — including New Jersey — historically provided exactly that kind of climate, which is why the region became well suited to cranberry harvesting (Colimore, 2009). Over a 100-year horizon, that climatic advantage will largely disappear, making continued production increasingly untenable.
Over the next 50 years, significantly higher rates of precipitation are projected for the region (Walsh, 2011). These elevated precipitation levels will result in increased flooding (Colimore, 2009), which poses a direct threat to cranberry crops. As weather conditions become more volatile and waterlogged, the viable land area for growing cranberries will contract (Walsh, 2011). While cranberries do require moisture, excessive precipitation and flooding exceed the conditions the crop can tolerate.
Precipitation levels are expected to increase even further over the 100-year horizon than over the next 50 years (Colimore, 2009). This will bring still more flooding and excess moisture to New Jersey and surrounding areas (Walsh, 2011), adversely affecting crops across the board. Cranberries perform best in moderately cool weather without excessive precipitation (Walsh, 2009), and a century of intensifying rainfall will push conditions further beyond those tolerances. The most viable mitigation strategy across both time frames is to minimize greenhouse gas emissions, which could offset some of the predicted climatic shifts and reduce their impact on New Jersey's cranberry crop.
"Farming equipment, transport, and irrigation add emissions"
"Recommendation to phase out cranberry farming gradually"
"Tomatoes and corn as climate-adapted replacements"
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