Ebola Outbreak in West Africa: Data Analysis and Mapping

Introduction and Scope

This report presents business intelligence gathered and analyzed in connection with the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa. Countries receiving particular focus include Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. The process involves the location and collection of relevant data, analysis of that data using selected techniques and software, and a presentation of overall results — including a map of the affected region. While the region was certainly not out of danger during the peak of the crisis, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa would appear to have been mostly brought under control by late 2015, although the threat of a further outbreak remained.

Given that travelling to West Africa would be cost-prohibitive and dangerous, this report relies on established and trustworthy sources of data relating to the West Africa Ebola outbreak. Sources are limited to peer-reviewed and other academic journals, retrieved through the academic search engine EBSCOHost and summarized and analyzed within the text of this report. Analysis not completed within the reports themselves was conducted using Excel and other basic mathematical tools, given that the raw figures involved are not especially complex. The integrity of the analysis depends more on method than on the sophistication of the calculations — so long as data collectors counted accurately and used trustworthy sources, the analysis is sound. Both qualitative and quantitative information relevant to the outbreak are included. Some tables and figures are drawn directly from source materials; one chart was created by the author using Microsoft Excel (see Appendix III).

Geographic Overview of the Affected Region

As shown in the appendix map, the countries in question are located along the western coast of Africa, due south of Spain and Portugal. They occupy the southern edge of the large block of land that juts westward from the main north-to-south landmass of the African continent. The three primary countries — Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia — all share borders with one another. Running from northwest to southeast, the order is Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. All three have at least some coastline along the Atlantic Ocean.

Guinea is by far the largest of the three, and Sierra Leone is the smallest. Guinea wraps around most of Sierra Leone and shares borders with both Sierra Leone and Liberia. Additional neighboring countries include Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Côte d'Ivoire (the Ivory Coast). Beyond those land borders, the region is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean. In terms of global location, the area is fairly distant from other major regions, including Western Europe and the Middle East. The eastern tip of South America — specifically part of Brazil — represents the closest point in the Americas to the western tip of Africa (Google Maps, 2015).

Outbreak Origins and Early Case Trends

The Ebola outbreak in Guinea was officially declared by the Ministry of Health on March 21, 2014. At that time, approximately 49 cases were known, with a fatality rate of nearly sixty percent. Of roughly twenty tests sent to France for analysis, fifteen returned positive — a confirmation rate of seventy-five percent. There are approximately five known strains of the Ebola virus. A similar outbreak emerged in Liberia around the same period; as of March 30, 2014, confirmed cases had been identified there as well. Sierra Leone followed shortly thereafter. In short order, 337 deaths were recorded, reflecting a fatality rate of sixty-four percent — implying an infection pool of approximately 526 persons.

By comparison, the largest previously recorded Ebola outbreak as of that time had occurred in Uganda, where 425 cases were reported and 224 people died, a death rate of approximately 53%. Across both outbreaks, the case fatality rate ranged from roughly half to just over six in ten. The earliest reported case in the broader West African region over the preceding generation occurred in Côte d'Ivoire in 1994. That infection, caused by the Taï Forest virus, represented the first instance of Ebola occurring in a capital city (Dixon & Schafer, 2014).

A bar chart provided by Dixon and Schafer (2014) illustrates weekly outbreak trends through June 2014. Starting in December 2013, there were one or two confirmed cases. About five more were identified in late January 2014. Cases began to accelerate meaningfully in February 2014, with approximately four to five new or possible cases confirmed each week. In March, weekly figures surged to between ten and thirty-five cases. A relative lull followed in April and May, with weekly peaks generally not exceeding twenty cases — except for the second week of April, which recorded approximately 32. A sharp upward spike occurred at the end of May, reaching nearly forty cases per week. Numbers then edged back down to approximately twenty cases per week by mid-June 2014 (Dixon & Schafer, 2014).