This memorandum advises a U.S. president to veto Bill 1002-H, which would authorize an 800-mile border fence along the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, California, and Texas. The memo argues that signing the bill would alienate Latino voters in critical Southwestern swing states, provide minimal electoral benefit, and expose the administration to criticism over inflated costs, pork-barrel spending, and the fence's inability to effectively reduce illegal immigration. Three main lines of argument β cost, cultural perception, and practicality β are developed as a communication strategy to defend the veto decision publicly.
The purpose of this memorandum is to encourage you to veto Bill 1002-H, which would authorize the construction of an 800-mile fence in Arizona, California, and Texas along the Mexican border, with the intention of stemming the tide of illegal immigration to the United States. This bill could have significant political ramifications that could adversely affect your re-election bid, and there is limited political advantage to be gained from supporting it. We can make successful arguments based on cost, perception, and practicality to defend the decision to veto the bill.
Southwestern states, which have been a strong political base in the past, promise to be swing states in the next election. Our decision to oppose increases in national parks funding has already cost some political capital in these states, where outdoor activities are important to constituents. In these Southwestern states, Latinos are a fast-growing demographic and may provide the pivotal votes needed to win. In Southern Texas, for example, 20% of the population identifies as Latino, and these votes may well comprise the margin of victory in the state.
Our polling has shown that the border fence is a pivotal election issue for Latino voters and that they overwhelmingly oppose its construction. Ninety-one percent of respondents who identified as Latino said they oppose the border fence, and 62% said it is now their single most important political issue β surpassing even education and health care. If we sign 1002-H into law, we could lose Southwestern states we are counting on for election victory.
Our research has also shown that we would gain very little by signing the legislation. The groups that advocate most heavily for the fence β typically conservatives β are not going to vote for our Democratic opponent anyway. Further, our polling indicates that while 57% of the general public supports the border fence, nearly 80% say they do not consider it one of their major issues. In short, vetoing the legislation is unlikely to cost us many votes.
"Fence cost framed against domestic priorities"
"Berlin Wall comparisons and Mexico trade relations"
"Staffing shortfalls undermine fence effectiveness"
There is very little political advantage to signing 1002-H. In fact, signing the bill could cost us victories in Southwestern states that we need for re-election. Further, most Americans do not feel strongly about the bill, so this is not a hill worth dying on.
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