UAE–Israel Abraham Accords: Toward a Warm Peace

Introduction

Until recently, the history of the Arab states with regard to Israel has been one of conflict and cold peace. With the signing of the Abraham Accords, the UAE turned a page in Arab-Israeli relations. It now appears that a warm peace is possible in the Middle East, and that such a peace is being actively pursued by the UAE in the hope that it will help to thaw relations among the other Arab states. However, for many Arab populations, Israel remains a state to be viewed with wariness.

Israel has been in some form of conflict with Palestine since its inception nearly a century ago, and for most of that time the Arab world has supported the Palestinian cause. Wars have been fought — most notably the Six Day War — and Israel's territory has grown. The Palestinian people, meanwhile, have been subject to their own leadership in the form of Hamas and Hezbollah. The UAE currently views these organizations as terrorist groups that have led the Palestinian people astray.

Historical Context of Arab–Israeli Relations

Following the Six Day War, Egypt eventually sought to establish peace with Israel through the Camp David Accords in 1978. That peace was celebrated as a breakthrough in Arab-Israeli relations, but it has largely been characterized as a cold peace — one focused on security rather than on cementing a warm friendship defined by mutual growth and well-being. Egypt's subsequent fall into disarray demonstrated the limited extent to which the Camp David Accords achieved lasting peace. Jordan followed suit two decades later with its own cold peace arrangement, but after a quarter century that political peace is barely remembered between the two states.

In this regard, the UAE has been unique in its approach to Israel. While it is true that other states — including Bahrain and Sudan — also signed onto the Abraham Accords, and that Egypt and Jordan each pursued peace in the past, the UAE is different. Critics allege that Bahrain and Sudan signed onto the Accords only as part of a quid-pro-quo arrangement with the United States. No such arrangement can be said to have motivated the UAE, and neither can the UAE's peace with Israel be characterized as cold in the manner of Egypt's or Jordan's agreements in past decades.

The UAE's Approach: A Warm Peace

The UAE has approached Israel differently from its predecessors. It predicated its talks with Israel on a win-win position, seeking not merely a political or security peace but rather a peace that enables both states to prosper and benefit from formalized ties. To this end, the UAE and Israel plan to work together on trade, tourism, energy, agriculture, security, and more — enhancing one another's economy and contributing to the overall prosperity of the Middle East.

To some degree, the UAE and Israel both recognize similar threats in the region: Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are viewed by each as sources of serious concern. The formalization of ties between the two states thus also represents a step toward addressing a looming issue — namely, Iran's pursuit of nuclear capability and what this may mean for peace in the Middle East.

Conclusion

The UAE's relationship with Israel already existed in an embryonic stage prior to the Abraham Accords. The two states had collaborated on matters of intelligence and security, and they shared a similar outlook with regard to Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian leadership. With the signing of the Accords, a new phase in relations was marked. This phase is best characterized as the establishment of a warm peace: tourism is opening between the two states, trade is set to flourish as Israel sells agricultural technology to the UAE and the UAE sells oil to Israel, diplomatic relations have improved, and there is an overall positive regard between the two nations.

For now, the Abraham Accords stand as a sign that peace is possible. Stability is needed in the region, and by taking the first step the UAE demonstrates that obstacles can and are being removed. No other state in the Middle East would have dared take this first step — but the UAE is accustomed to leading, and it may come to pass that other states will follow. When and which ones remain to be seen.

In the meantime, red lines may be drawn and the new geopolitical arrangements may continue to shift. Qatar has a vested interest in maintaining peace in the Middle East as much as any other state. Its friendship with Iran is ultimately a diplomatic calculation serving its own interests. But if fighting were to break out, the question of where Qatar might throw its support is a consequential one.

The peace between the UAE and Israel is warm but also tenuous. Fears and concerns still abound, and many unknowns persist. Yet the benefits outweigh the risks. The UAE is moving forward with plans to rapidly transform its own state by importing agricultural technology capable of converting its arid lands into productive farming ventures. It plans to boost tourism, and Israel plans to do the same. The intercourse between Emiratis and Israelis should develop productively in the coming months and years, barring any geopolitical setbacks. As the two states' cultures become more intertwined and appreciative of one another, it stands to reason that future generations will also develop a reciprocal sense of friendship toward a state that has for so long been viewed with suspicion in the Arab world.

Some states may remain intransigent. Iran's leaders do not appear willing to abandon old grudges, and Israel is equally unyielding on its core concerns. But if the Abraham Accords have demonstrated anything, it is that change is part of the nature of things — and that change can happen suddenly and in significant ways when the time is ripe.

The UAE has recognized that the Middle East needs a state willing to lead the way, and it has seized the opportunity to be that state. It has declared before the world that it is ready to turn the page on Arab relations with Israel. It has reaffirmed its support for the Palestinian people in the process, but it has also made clear that it will no longer support the Palestinian leadership, which it views as corrupt and as enablers of terrorism. The UAE wants Arabs to learn to live alongside their Israeli neighbor in a win-win arrangement from which all can benefit — because it recognizes that Israel is not leaving the Middle East, and that it makes more sense politically, socially, and economically to work with Israel than to fight against it.

One thing is nonetheless certain. The UAE now has the leverage to influence much in the region. Its relationship with Israel is a game-changer in the Middle East, and several states now face serious questions about their own positions. Lines are being drawn, and the region will either move forward peacefully or break out into new conflict. If the latter occurs, the consequences will be felt not only across the Middle East but around the world. For that reason, all eyes are watching to see how the situation develops.

The Middle East has a great deal riding on the 21st century. From east to west, nations around the world have a vested interest in how things unfold. Iran, Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia — they are all major players on the world stage, and superpowers will also bear influence on the shape of things to come. The Abraham Accords may spell the opening chapter of a new book being written in the Middle East. But that story still needs to be written — and in time, it will be.