White Supremacist Terrorist Threat Assessment for US Law Enforcement

Introduction and Background

In its September 2021 report to the House of Representatives' Committee on Oversight and Reform, the FBI acknowledged that the greatest terrorism threat in the US is posed by small cells and lone actors who use easily accessible weapons to attack soft targets (FBI, 2021). The main manifestations of these threats are Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs) and Domestic Violent Extremists (DVEs) arising domestically (FBI, 2021). HVEs are influenced or inspired by foreign terrorist groups, although they do not have direct links with or receive individualized orders from these groups (FBI, 2021). Conversely, DVEs commit acts of terrorism to further certain political or social goals arising from domestic issues, such as anti-government sentiments and ethnic or racial bias (FBI, 2021).

DVEs who act in furtherance of ethnic or racial goals are referred to as RMVEs — Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (FBI, 2021). According to the FBI, RMVEs advocating for white superiority accounted for a majority of DVE-perpetrated lethal attacks in 2018 and 2019 (FBI, 2021). This assessment analyzes the threat posed by violent white supremacists in the US given their recent trends. It examines their history, common tactics, and violent activity today in order to assess the threat they pose and make policy recommendations to police administrators, managers, investigators, and patrol officers. The intelligence used in generating the report was gathered through a review of relevant reports from the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and committees of both Congress and the House of Representatives.

The FBI acknowledges that violent white supremacists pose the greatest threat in domestic extremism against civilians in the US (FBI, 2021). In June 2015, Dylan Roof, a white supremacist, entered a church in Charleston, South Carolina, and slaughtered nine African Americans attending a worship service (US Congress Report, 2020). In 2017, neo-Nazis involved in a riot in Charlottesville, Virginia, wounded several civilians and killed a counter-protester, Heather Heyer, in a vehicular attack (US Congress Report, 2020). In another incident, a white supremacist affiliated with neo-Nazis entered the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, killing eleven worshippers and wounding six others (US Congress Report, 2020). In one of the worst extremist attacks recorded, a white supremacist motivated by hatred of immigrants entered a Walmart store in El Paso, Texas, and fired indiscriminately at shoppers, leaving 23 dead and 23 others seriously injured (US Congress Report, 2020).

These are only isolated incidents that have made national headlines in recent years. However, according to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), RMVEs perpetrated 98 extremist incidents between 2011 and 2020, 40 of which were perpetrated by white supremacists alone (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). The ADL's 2020 Report on Murder and Extremism found that 53 percent of the 17 murders related to extremist violence in the US in 2020 were perpetrated by white supremacists (ADL, 2020). White supremacists accounted for 81 percent of the 42 reported extremism-related killings in 2019, and 58 percent of the 430 terrorism-related killings between 2008 and 2018 (ADL, 2020).

In October 2020, the Department of Homeland Security described white supremacist extremists as a lethal and persistent threat, particularly given current trends in which the movement has networked with like-minded persons outside the US (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). In the same year, the FBI elevated extremism linked to racial or ethnic bias — including white supremacy — to the same level of national threat as the Islamic State (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). Racial extremism threatens the security of all Americans and takes a profound emotional and physical toll on the communities it targets.

The goal of white supremacists is to ensure that white people maintain an elevated social status amid increasing interracial relationships and rising immigration rates (Mulligan et al., 2021). The movement is founded on the "white genocide" theory, which argues that the demographic changes resulting from immigration constitute a threat to the white race (Mulligan et al., 2021). For this reason, the movement targets immigrants of color and justifies the use of violence to protect the perceived superiority of the white race from its perceived enemies (Smith, 2019). The movement includes neo-Nazis, white nationalists, and those who subscribe to anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim, and anti-immigrant beliefs (Mulligan et al., 2021).

White supremacists are motivated by racial and ethnic biases, and their activities are grounded in the logics of slavery and genocide (Smith, 2019). The logic of slavery — one of the pillars of white supremacy ideology — equates Blackness with enslaveability (Smith, 2019). It commodifies Black people as property, arguing that white people are justified in exploiting their labor and treating them as assets to be exchanged (Smith, 2019). The genocide pillar argues that indigenous peoples must disappear so that non-natives can control the resources, culture, and land originally held by native populations (Smith, 2019). This pillar justifies the psychological and physical removal of indigenous peoples to ensure they vanish entirely and cannot reclaim their resources (Smith, 2019). Based on this logic, adherents believe they may rightfully eliminate indigenous peoples and take full control of their lands and resources (Smith, 2019).

Ideology, Goals, Methods, and Tactics

White supremacists use several methods to advance their violence. They use social platforms, websites, and internet-based channels to organize, recruit new members, and amplify their narratives (Mulligan et al., 2021). A report by the Tech Transparency Project (as cited in Mulligan et al., 2021) found that white supremacists use social media platforms to spread messages of hate and direct users to more extreme forums, channels, and content. For instance, hours before he was apprehended by the FBI in 2020, Timothy Wilson, a white supremacist, had posted anti-Semitic messages in a white supremacist group on the Telegram messaging app, detailing his plan to attack a school, synagogue, mosque, or hospital (Perrigo, 2020). The movement has also used the internet to reach out to and engage with groups sharing grievances around governance, such as QAnon communities (Perrigo, 2020).

White supremacists also use in-person forums to plan attacks, organize, and conduct training for recruits (Mulligan et al., 2021). According to American Progress, the use of in-person meetings has allowed the movement to thrive unnoticed, since most law-enforcement efforts remain focused on online platforms (Mulligan et al., 2021). Reports indicate that the 2020 plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was planned at a white supremacist in-person informal meeting in Dublin, Ohio (Mulligan et al., 2021). It is therefore important for more research to "understand the relationship between online and in-person engagement and mobilization, especially as it pertains to white supremacist violence" (Mulligan et al., 2021, n.p.).

White supremacist attacks primarily involve small cells or lone perpetrators who mainly use firearms (Mulligan et al., 2021). Data from the National Crime Victimization Survey found that 72 percent of killings by domestic terrorists over the past decade involved the use of guns (Mulligan et al., 2021). Domestic extremists prefer firearms due to their ease of use and ready availability. The attacks in Charleston, Charlottesville, Pittsburgh, and El Paso all involved the use of firearms (Mulligan et al., 2021). Gun-related legislation prohibits individuals convicted of felonies from purchasing firearms but permits those charged with misdemeanors to do so (Mulligan et al., 2021). Furthermore, those prohibited from purchasing firearms through licensed dealers can still obtain them from unlicensed sellers, thereby circumventing background checks (Mulligan et al., 2021). Reports also indicate that a significant number of white supremacists purchase so-called "80 percent" or unfinished firearm receivers, which they complete into unmarked and untraceable weapons (Mulligan et al., 2021).

White supremacists primarily target racial and ethnic minorities, including Hispanic and Black populations (Mulligan et al., 2021). In recent years, the movement has increasingly targeted Americans of Asian origin, as well as religious minorities including Sikh, Muslim, and Jewish communities (Mulligan et al., 2021). Reports point to a significant surge in anti-Semitic incidents since 2019 (Mulligan et al., 2021).

A 2017 report by the ADL titled Funding Hate notes that white supremacists mostly self-fund their activities, covering travel costs, weaponry, tattooing, and the purchase of clothing and paraphernalia (ADL, 2017). Since most members are not economically advantaged, organizations generate very little through this kind of self-funding (ADL, 2017). Groups also obtain funding from wealthier benefactors. Key historical funders include Ben Klassen, one of the founders of the Church of the Creator, and William Regnery II, founder of the Charles Martel Society, which publishes white supremacist materials (ADL, 2017). White supremacist organizations also raise funds through annual membership subscriptions, dues and donations, merchandise sales, and event fees from conferences and "power music" concerts (ADL, 2017).

Generally, these sources generate limited revenue, and the groups lack the stability to reliably enforce their $50 annual membership fees, since members can easily defect to other organizations (ADL, 2017). Resource constraints mean that white supremacists cannot obtain military-grade weaponry or provide the kind of training available to members of more established extremist organizations (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). White supremacist resources have historically fallen short of the movement's ambitions, leaving groups unable to launch sophisticated, coordinated attacks (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021).

Reports by the FBI have documented heavy engagement between white supremacist groups and QAnon communities, which promoted anti-government views around mask mandates during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic (Mulligan et al., 2021). The US intelligence community has also noted collaborations between white supremacists in the US and extremists abroad (Mulligan et al., 2021). For instance, founders of The Daily Stormer and The Base — a neo-Nazi group operating from Russia — have collaborated with domestic white supremacists to facilitate attacks in the US (Mulligan et al., 2021). The FBI has also documented instances of US-based white supremacists traveling to Ukraine for paramilitary training (Mulligan et al., 2021). According to Mulligan et al. (2021), these collaborations are largely avenues that foreign actors pursue to facilitate violence on US soil.

As a result of resource limitations, most white supremacist violence is committed by lone actors rather than organized groups (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). Moreover, white supremacists often lack access to sophisticated weaponry and mostly carry out attacks using readily available, non-automatic firearms (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). The movement also lacks broad public support as well as internal cohesion (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). For instance, some white supremacists criticized Roof in the aftermath of the 2015 Charleston attack, arguing that the timing was counterproductive and would invite a law-enforcement crackdown on the movement (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021). In a document Roof authored just before the attack, he complained that most white supremacists were merely talking rather than acting — a remark that reveals the internal divisions that continue to limit the movement's effectiveness (Byman & Pitcavage, 2021).

To expand their financial base, white supremacist organizations are increasingly turning to cryptocurrency — which is harder for law enforcement to trace — and to crowdfunding, which leverages social media platforms (ADL, 2017). In crowdfunding campaigns, groups use platforms such as Kickstarter, Indiegogo, FundRazr, Patreon, and GoFundMe to solicit funds for specific projects from a broad donor base (ADL, 2017). In one documented case, white supremacist Kyle Hunt organized a crowdfunding campaign on Indiegogo in 2014 to finance banners for a planned nationwide march of white men (ADL, 2017). With roughly 50 contributors, Hunt raised $3,500 — well above his $2,000 target (ADL, 2017).

Another significant trend is the recruitment and infiltration of military, veteran, and law-enforcement communities by white supremacists (Mulligan et al., 2021). Experts view this as an attempt to enhance the movement's credibility and operational capacity (Mulligan et al., 2021; Congress Report, 2020). According to Mulligan et al. (2021), shortfalls in screening procedures and insufficient training on white supremacist ideology leave service members vulnerable to recruitment. Veterans are particularly susceptible due to post-military identity loss, "loss of social support, and the appeal of ideologies that address personal grievances" (Mulligan et al., 2021, n.p.). Veterans reportedly made up over 15 percent of those who participated in the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack (Mulligan et al., 2021). The involvement of law-enforcement officers in racial discourse has also created vulnerabilities that white supremacists have sought to exploit. A 2019 report found that over 100 police departments across 49 states had experienced scandals involving officers who sent racist messages through online platforms (Mulligan et al., 2021).

White supremacists continue to pose the primary terrorism threat to civilians in the US despite their limited resources and low public support. Much of their recruitment occurs online via social media, and statistics point to rapid growth in membership of social media groups and Telegram channels operated by white supremacist organizations (Perrigo, 2020). In March 2020 alone, membership in white supremacist Telegram channels grew by 6,000 users (Perrigo, 2020). One channel used by supremacists to spread disinformation about COVID-19 saw its user base grow by 800 percent — from 300 to 2,700 members — in that single month (Perrigo, 2020).

The lethality of white supremacist attacks grew significantly during the Trump administration, during which the federal government was repeatedly accused of failing to condemn white supremacy and of resisting calls to allocate more resources to counter it (Mulligan et al., 2021). Despite the subsequent change in administration, this assessment projects an increase in the lethality and overall threat level posed by white supremacist extremists, driven by growing political mainstreaming of their ideas. In 2020, two Congressional representatives affiliated with the QAnon community were elected to office — an indicator that fringe ideologies have begun to penetrate the mainstream (Mulligan et al., 2021). This development, combined with expanded funding through cryptocurrency and crowdfunding, threatens to accelerate the diffusion of white supremacist ideology and to finance more sophisticated training and attacks in the future (Mulligan et al., 2021).

Threat Analysis and Justification

For police managers and administrators, this report recommends the following:

(i) Develop a widely accepted set of policies and conduct standards that address racist behavior both online and on the job.

(ii) Develop best practices that prevent white supremacists from serving as law-enforcement officers.

(iii) Offer support and training to help officers identify radicalization, counter it, and report any recruitment and mobilization attempts for effective action.

Conclusion

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). (2021). Confronting violent white supremacy: Examining the Biden administration's counterterrorism strategy. Author. https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/testimonies/witnesses/attachments/2022/08/11/2021.09.29_testimony_brad_wiegmann_timothy_langan_re_white_supremacy.pdf

Mulligan, K., Steele, B., & Clark, S. (2021). A national policy blueprint to end white supremacy violence. American Progress.

Perrigo, B. (2020). White supremacist groups are recruiting with help from coronavirus and a popular messaging app. Time Magazine.

Smith, A. (2019). Feminist theory reader (5th ed.). Routledge.