Iran Country Vulnerability Assessment Outlook

Each country has extent of constraints during their development. Iran has suffered similar issues by virtue of being among the developing country. It has also been countries that require not only acquiring, but retaining its power to guard its resources. The country has also been surrounded by powerful governments of Iraq and Afghanistan which have been a threat to Iran. Iran's system of government is theocratic, meaning that is lead by a religious leader, and the state is under Islamic Law.[footnoteRef:2] Unlike the western countries, it is built on a strong religious base which has very strict parameters both in accountability, and performance.[footnoteRef:3] It has not suffered from many political parties until recently with united Front of Principality, and a broad coalition of principalities. Countries fight to be strong so that they can win autonomy, with a greater degree of protection. According to Spykman, most countries were only interested in balance that favored them. He said there was real security in being stronger than the enemy country (Spykman 1942). This means that domination is the major force behind any development. With its high population and GDP, Iran needs major developments in order to compete with its neighbors, and globalization at large. [2: Karsh, Efraim, ad. The Iran-lraq War: Impact and Implications. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1 World Bank. 2012. Iran at a Glance. Online, available from Internet accessed July 17th, 2012] [3: CIA, "World Fact Book: Iran," [database online], Country Profiles; accessed July 29, 2012.]

Internal influences

Domestic political arrangements have to be looked into and restructured in order to dominate forces. Tilly once said "war makes a country, and a country makes war" (Tilly 1975). He emphasized on the need to prevent a country from external dangers. There were pressure groups building within the country which included Islamic Iran Participation Front, Militants Cleric Society, Mujahidin of the Islamic Revolution Organization, and Islamic Labor Party. The Islamic Iran Participation Font has had the advantage of winning but not without struggles. Some of its members had to be from the election which saw the party winning with fewer seats. This can be a drawback especially during major decision making at the parliament. Iran government and religion has not strained it a lot because eighty percent of Iran's population is Muslims. Iran has persistent inflation and poverty is still at high levels. There is a gap between the rich moguls and the deprived. There is a lot of corruption which has slowed down development in Iran.

The cultural and religious constraints are mostly based on their Muslim background. There was a big number immigrant who moved to Iran from Afghan in the year 1956 during the war. The refugees have continued to stream into Iran and the United Nations report show that by 2011, the country's population had gone up to sixteen million from nine million. This kind of growth definitely slows down the development of a country. Iran becomes among the highest populated countries compared to the neighboring countries like Pakistan. Family planning has been implemented to two children per family in order to reduce the populace. The health care has been spending a lot of the government fund on this big population. Unfortunately this country does not have diversified cultural, ethnic, or social groups because these would have brought about competition, hence development.

The main vulnerability factor in Iran, similar to what makes other countries vulnerable is the status of the economy. Economic status determines the strength of a state. A country that is able to feed itself, educate and employ a majority of its population is a lot less vulnerable as compared to one that is not able to do any of the above. Iran's economic has a lot of potential mostly attributed to the fact that it is an oil producing country, but government policies such as subsidies, regulations and price control, corruption among government officials...

The United Nations and the United States of America have tried imposing sanctions on the government to get it to get its act together but it's to no avail. [footnoteRef:4] The administration under the leadership of Ahmadinejad ignores good advice and continues to run the country without due respect to the well-being of its citizen. The GDP growth has been on the drop with 2.5% in 2011, compared to 3.2% in 2010 (World Bank 2012). The service sector in Iran has contributed 29.5% of the country's GDP compared with the industrial sector at 60.5%. Compared to Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, whose agricultural sector contributes 9.3%, 20.4%, and 34.9% respectively, Iran's agricultural sector which is at 10.4% is quite low. [footnoteRef:5] [4: World Bank. 2012. Iran at a Glance. Online, available from Internet accessed July 17th, 2012] [5: World Bank. 2012. Iran at a Glance. Online, available from Internet accessed July 17th, 2012]
Most countries have built defense bases with production of ammunition to protect the country from its enemies. Iran has done that and this helps the community to gauge threats that are posed by other nations. It also assists the military and politician analysis in weighing its capabilities (RAAND document pg 136-138). The geographical location of Iran has been a drawback in the forces due to the many mountains surrounding it because they make use of radars useless. The country also has poor infrastructure, and lacks equipment. Their equipment is ancient but the government has been working on it. Poor training has been a drawback for the forces.

External constraints

Iran is a country with great resources hence the interest from the neighboring countries if Iraq and Afghanistan. There is the International pressure from the already developed countries which make development mandatory for the country of Iran. Iran is a country with greater resources to protect compared to many countries. This is major external pressure because of its oils and its people. The neighboring countries have high powered ammunition, hence the continued instability in the region. The number and size of challengers, extent of external support during internal conflicts, territorial despites, and arm racing, make threatened countries to offer military support. United States has offered such help to protect Iran, making it the biggest military power in the region. Due to the invasion by Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran changed its military setting according to the United States Army.[footnoteRef:6] [6: Iran Tracker. 2012. Afghanistan-Iran Foreign Relations. Online, available from Internet, accessed July 17th, 2012]

Iran is using mosaic defense which has seen it open different bases in the east, south, and the south eastern part of the country. It is using the mountain ranges as barriers. However these mountains have messed the radar system. However, poor training has seen of the gorillas fail in their work. There have been exercises showing that an attack is expected in the eastern side of this country. The Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have stronger forces, and this poses a threat to Iran. This is where the United States comes in and provides updated ammunition and other strategies to pursue the enemies. The problem between Iran- Iraq borders has been in existence for long. This is due to the oil fields that lie between these countries. [footnoteRef:7] It is the geographical area that brought about these differences because the two shared a common culture under same rulers in the earlier years. Iraq was landlocked with a very small coastline and needed Iran to export its oil. [7: Iran Tracker. 2012. Afghanistan-Iran Foreign Relations. Online, available from Internet, accessed July 17th, 2012]

Conclusion

Iran is a country that has oil as a major commodity that has helped in its economic development. Nevertheless, there have been constraints caused…