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Forecasting Methods
There are three basic forecasting methods namely the time series methods, the regression methods, and qualitative methods. Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. These methods are most commonly used in long-term strategic planning process bearing in mind there are individuals within an organization whose judgment and opinion are very integral in the running of search organizations (Brown, 1959). In fact their opinions count more than those of experts drawn from outside the organization. Quantitative methods make use of mathematical and statistical tools to capture and analyze information. They are used to measure and model outcomes, eliminating rogue results and other influences (Brown, 1959). Investment managers use quantitative methods to value different classes of securities, analyze criteria for guiding investment decisions, and measure risk and asset return. Quantitative methods are also used in calculating yields and prices, frequency distributions, and...
Consensus methods involve seeking expert opinion from more than one person (Brown, 1959). The opinions that have been elicited from the experts are subsequently synthesized and a final focus obtained. Consensus is normally arrived at by putting all experts in a room and letting them to argue their issues out. This methods major undoing is: it is controlled by individuals that have the best group interaction and persuasion skills (Hanke & Reitsch, 1992). Delphi Technique falls under the consensus methods. The technique normally seeks to rectify problems associated with face-to-face confrontation in the group. The technique proceeds in a well-defined sequence. The participants are first asked to write their predictions. Their responses are collated and a copy given to each participant. Participants' input is sought on…
References List
Brown, R.G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hanke, J. & Reitsch, A. (1992). Business Forecasting (4th edn.). New York: Simon & Schuster.
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