Changes in Homicide Rates in the Last 10 Years

¶ … Homicide Rates Increased or Decreased in 10 Years?

Rates of murders and violent crimes have witnessed a downward trend for over twenty years. The rate of violent crimes in the nation has been lowest, for the year 2014, since 1970; moreover, the rate of homicides for 2014 was at its lowest point since the year 1960. Despite these rates showing an increase in the year 2015, the murder rate would only reach its post-1960 maxima of 10.2 homicides for every 100,000 individuals, if it increased by 5.7 murders for every 100,000 individuals. Meanwhile, the rate of violent crimes would only reach its post-1960 maxima of 758.2 violent crimes (year 1991) for every 100,000 individuals, if it increased by 392.7 crimes of violence for every 100,000 individuals (James, 2015). The above two growths indicate an over-two-fold rise in the 2014 rates of violent crimes and homicide. There are numerous short-term facets capable of explaining reported violent crime upticks across USA: yearly crime rate variations are subject to arbitrary fluctuations; a number of cities have been witnessing crime rate rises from their respective historically low crime levels; crime rates can modify seasonally; and the percentage of reported-crime variation represents a relative, magnitude-sensitive measure (James, 2015).

Though the time to definitively conclude whether or not there is an upsurge in crimes of a violent nature may not yet have arrived, many commentators have wondered why growths in such crimes are seen in some cities. Proposed explanations include: the "Ferguson effect" (which is that, following a series of deaths of high-profile police officers, police forces become less willing to proactively carry out policing activities, thus emboldening criminals); increased violence may be because of gang wars for drug-turf control or released criminals perpetrating new offenses; and law enforcers are faced with a legitimacy challenge in certain communities whose inhabitants believe the police aren't treating them fairly; this can make individuals attempt to "take care of matters" themselves, without involving the law, in case of conflicts (James, 2015).

Validity of the Article

This work is valid, since homicide research in sixty of the most heavily populated American cities was gathered from various sources. Study data was obtained from media reports, websites of police departments, state uniform crime reporting (UCR) programs, and the Major Cities Chiefs Association survey. Researcher had to directly contact police departments, in some cases. Further, data provided was sometimes inconsistent. A few cities could only report homicide data as of the 31st of May, 2015, while others could provide data as of the 7th of September, 2015 (James, 2015).

Why Has the Rate of This Offense Changed Over Time?

Following several years of reducing crime rates, lawmakers might take into consideration legislation for eliminating or reducing some minimum mandatory sentences, thereby reducing prison populations. A series of deaths of high-profile officials in the police force have been witnessed over the course of the previous year, leading to demands for legislative reforms in police tactics and policies. Some observers have voiced concerns that the reported climbing numbers of aggressive crimes may thwart attempts at increasing police accountability, when the attempts are perceived as hindering law enforcers' ability of controlling crime. Crime growths may also indicate prior successes (i.e., a number of reported homicide increases are of cities at their historic low-point of homicide rates, hence, it is likely that homicide rates increase in comparison to the past year, at a certain point) (James, 2015).