China F/X
China faces a tough decision with respect to floating the yuan or not. Ultimately, a float will severely limit China's ability to control the value of its currency. At present, this will be a significant problem because the yuan would likely rise in value. This would be to the detriment of the country's export industries, which are the drivers of the economy and employment. Further, the country may be tempted to continue to hold down the yuan's value, which will be much more difficult under floating rate conditions. Another issue is that China will have start publishing accurate economic information, which will pose a challenge for the country's officials, who are unaccustomed to things like transparency. The country would almost certainly need to undertake banking reform in order to float the yuan as well, posing additional structural challenges. Overcoming all of these challenges will take time.
There are advantages, however. Right now, China is spending a lot of money to hold down the value of the yuan, money it could put to other uses. Further, the country...
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