Chinese-American Relations: What the Future Holds

Sino-U.S. Relations in the Post-Cold War Era Today, China and the United States are inextricably linked in the modern world and some observers maintain that any disagreements that emerge between the two countries are relatively insignificant and will not adversely affect this growing economic and political relationship. By contrast, other international analysts argue that recent trends in China's economic and military growth will inevitably result in armed conflict between these two superpowers.

To determine the facts, this paper provides a discussion concerning the accuracy of these respective viewpoints concerning the status of Sino-U.S. relations in the post-Cold War era, followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.

China's development in the 20th century The 20th century was a turbulent one for China, marred by major famines, foreign occupation and civil unrest.[footnoteRef:1] Despite these problems and the enormous challenges in achieving self-sufficiency in food production, the country emerged in the latter part of the second half of the century as a burgeoning economic juggernaut.[footnoteRef:2] Indeed, China's economy has grown so rapidly that analysts with the International Monetary Fund project that it will outpace the United States to become the world's largest economy by next year.[footnoteRef:3] Likewise, China has also assumed a global leadership position in many areas of manufacturing, including steel, electronics and textiles production.[footnoteRef:4] These trends indicate that China will soon replace the United States as the world's leading superpower, but economically rather than militarily, at least for the foreseeable future.[footnoteRef:5] [1: "China" (2015).

CIA World Factbook. [online] available https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html.] [2: Francis Shor, "Declining U.S. Hegemony and Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for Conflict?" PGDT 11 (2012), p. 158.] [3: Shor, "Declining U.S. Hegemony," p. 158.] [4: Shor, "Declining U.S. Hegemony," p. 158.] [5: Alan Philips, "Handshake That Ended the Cold War," The World Today (2014, December), 70(6), p.

38.] These predictions are further supported by other trends, including the rapid growth of gross China's domestic product (GDP) and purchasing power parity (PPP) as well as its relentless economic growth which has averaged 10% a year since 2013, the fastest rate in the developed world.[footnoteRef:6] Indeed, several years of sustained trade surpluses with the U.S. have resulted in China's accumulating a $4 trillion financial reserve of hard currency assets.[footnoteRef:7] Other indications of China's growing hegemony with respect to the U.S.

include its increased exports and imports, ranking its second only after the U.S., and while the U.S. remains the global leader in some areas, China is quickly overtaking in others such as manufacturing output. Moreover, as a result of new free trade agreements with countries such as Pakistan and Switzerland, the domestic market in China has also increased rapidly in recent years.[footnoteRef:8] Taken together, these trends underscore the dynamic nature of Sino-U.S.

relations in the post-Cold War era, and the background and current status of this relationship are discussed further below. [6: "China economic profiles," (2015) NationMaster. [online] available: http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/profiles/China/Economy.] [7: Robert G. Vambery, "The Rise of the Renminbi from Convertible toward Reserve Currency Status as a Result of the China-Us Trade Relationship," Journal of Global Business and Technology 10 (Fall 2014) 2, p. 43.] [8: "China economic profiles," p. 4.] 2. Overview of U.S.-Sino relations in the Post-Cold War Era.

While U.S.-Sino relations remained challenged by disagreements over human rights issues and other major areas of disagreement since the 1990s as discussed further below, China has increasingly engaged the international community as a member of international organizations and adopted a more pragmatic view towards reconciling its differences with the United States because the country's leadership recognizes the centrality of this relationship to achieving their economic and political goals.[footnoteRef:9] Nevertheless, Clover, Dyer and Ma emphasize that, "Almost nowhere else do you see such a strategic rivalry that now exists between China and the U.S."[footnoteRef:10] This strategic rivalry has translated into increasingly cooperative initiatives on the one hand and growing areas of contention on the other.

For example, the director of the China studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, David Lampton, argues that, "Our relations with China have been, and will remain for the foreseeable future to be mixed, to be a complex combination of cooperation and contention."[footnoteRef:11] [9: Jonathan E. Davis, "From Ideology to Pragmatism: China's Position on Humanitarian Intervention in the Post-Cold War Era," Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law (2011, March), 44(2), p. 217.] [10: Charles Clover, Geoff Dyer, and Fangjing Ma, "Head to head," Financial Times (2014, July 12), p.

1.] [11: David Lampton, "The U.S.-China Relationship," PBS Frontline. [online] available: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/china/experts/relations.html, p. 2.] The Sino-U.S. strategic rivalry has also been manifested in a number of areas, including most especially the security area, due in large part to the fundamentally different worldviews that are involved with both sides distrusting the motives of the other while recognizing the mutual benefits that can accrue to expanded cooperation between the two countries.

In this regard, Lampton adds that, "Since 1991, China and the United States have not really been able to cooperate very significantly in the security area."[footnoteRef:12] Despite this lack of cooperation, the growing interdependence of the Chinese and American economies has forced policymakers in both countries to downplay the significance of security issues in favor of further strengthening their economic ties,[footnoteRef:13] but some major disagreement remain firmly in place that will inevitably have an effect on these relations as discussed further below. [12: Lampton, p. 3.] [13: Lampton, p. 3.] 3.

Major disagreements/tensions between China and U.S. In recent decades. Despite their increasing economic ties, there have been some major sources of disputes between the United States and China during the post-Cold War era, including most especially human rights and the status of Taiwan.[footnoteRef:14] In addition, contentions of territorial rights in the South China Sea have alarmed the political leadership in many regional countries, including most especially the Philippines and Vietnam. [14: Zhou Qi, "Conflicts over Human Rights between China and the U.S.," Human Rights Quarterly (2005), p.

105.] Despite these disagreements and rising tensions, some authorities maintain that the increasing importance of economic and political ties between China and United States means that the two countries will be forced to resolve these issues peacefully because it is in their own best self-interest. For instance, Glaser reports that, "U.S.-China relations are a complicated mix of positive and negative elements, competition and cooperation. Conflict between the U.S.

And China is not inevitable."[footnoteRef:15] Although conflict may not be inevitable, it is possible unless and until the United States and China resolve the major areas of contention between them as discussed further below. [15: Bonnie S. Glaser, "U.S.-China Relations: Managing Differences Remains an Urgent Challenge," Southeast Asian Affairs (2014), p. 76.] a. Trade and Currency. Because the rapid economic development in China, the export of goods and resource and the enormous amount of U.S. debt that China is holding, the Chinese currency has grown stronger.

The Americans view this change as a potential threat to the hegemony of U.S.

dollars and the Bretton Woods system that provided for "fixed but adjustable" exchange rates.[footnoteRef:16] Indeed, one international analyst maintains that, "We may be in a 'New Bretton Woods Era' in the sense that China and other Asian countries peg their currencies to the dollar as a key reserve currency."[footnoteRef:17] The development of the new Asian Infrastructure investment Bank has also introduced threats to the leadership position that America held among international financial institutions during the second half of the 20th century.

Superficial disagreements, the reason that causes these disputes is that China has the ambition of becoming world's superpower and America is trying to retain her positions as the superpower in a unipolar world.[footnoteRef:18] [16: Davis, "From Ideology to Pragmatism," p. 217.] [17: James A. Dorn, "U.S.-China Relations: The Case for Economic Liberalism" (Fall 2009), The Cato Journal 26(3), p. 425.] [18: Davis, p. 218.] b. South China Sea Dispute i. China's expansion of territory.

Following the end of World War II, China, together with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Republic of Vietnam became embroiled over territorial rights to islands in the South China Sea.[footnoteRef:19] China has also been at loggerheads over its territorial right to Taiwan, an issue that appears especially intractable to easy resolution.[footnoteRef:20] When the Chinese communists assumed control of the mainland in 1949, two million Nationalist Chinese moved to Taiwan where they formed a government and gradually introduced democratic policies that incorporated local citizens into the country's governing structure.[footnoteRef:21] This democratization process increased during the 1980s and by 2000, Taiwan experienced a peaceful transition of leadership from the Nationalist (Kuomintang or KMT) to the Democratic Progressive Party.[footnoteRef:22] According to analysts at the CIA, "Throughout this period, the island prospered and became one of East Asia's economic 'Tigers.' The dominant political issues continue to be management of sensitive relations between Taiwan and China - specifically the question of Taiwan's eventual status - as well as domestic priorities for economic reform and growth."[footnoteRef:23] [19: Leszek Buszynski, "The South China Sea: Oil, Maritime Claims, and U.S.

-- China Strategic Rivalry," The Washington Quarterly (2012), 35:2, p. 139.] [20: Lawrence M. Martin, Jr. "Countering a Strategic Gambit: Keeping U.S. Airpower Employable in a China-Taiwan Conflict," Air & Space Power Journal (2005, Fall), 19(3), p. 65.] [21: "Taiwan," (2015) CIA World Factbook. [online] available: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tw.html, p. 2.] [22: "Taiwan," p. 2.] [23: "Taiwan," p. 3.] Given Taiwan's geographic proximity to the Chinese mainland (see Figure 1 below), some international analysts believe that China's territorial expansions will inevitably include bringing Taiwan under central government control at some point in the future. Figure 1.

Political map of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/maps/tw-map.gif Given its growing military and economic clout, it is reasonable to suggest that Taiwan will remain in the crosshairs of Chinese political leaders until a formal resolution of its status is achieved, an outcome that is hampered by Taiwan's nebulous and uncertain relationship with the United States and other developed nations of the world as well as the regional nations of the South Pacific.

For instance, Bruce points out that, "The South Pacific has fourteen nations, six of which diplomatically recognize Taiwan and eight of which recognize China. Until the diplomatic truce, initiated by Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jeou in 2008, several of these countries had switched recognition between China and Taiwan."[footnoteRef:24] [24: Jacobs J. Bruce, "Looking North, Looking South: China, Taiwan, and the South Pacific," China Review International (Fall 2012) 19(3), p.

367.] There have been some indications that irrespective of the political differences that exist between the two countries, leaders in China and Taiwan have increasingly recognized the vital importance of their trade relations and this may translate into normalized relationships between these two trading partners in the foreseeable future. In this regard, Bruce points out that, "The improvement of cross-Strait relations is likely to lessen tension and competition between Taipei and Beijing in the South Pacific.

[The] diplomatic truce means that Taipei now considers cross-Strait relations to be more important than its other foreign relations."[footnoteRef:25] [25: Bruce, "Looking North," p. 369.] ii. Geostrategic move for China.

Besides the potential future conflict over Taiwan, the conflict over the rights to the islands in the South China Sea has become further exacerbated due to their strategic value to China and the significant resources that are available there.[footnoteRef:26] In this regard, Buszynski reports that, "Around the 1990s, access to the sea's oil and gas reserves as well as fishing and ocean resources began to complicate the claims."[footnoteRef:27] Likewise, China's growing economic clout and military might have combined to place increasing pressures on the country to identify geostrategic initiatives that will help it continue its economic growth in the future, making the islands of the South China Sea a particularly desirable target.[footnoteRef:28] [26: Buszynski, "The South China Sea," p.

139.] [27: Buszynski, "The South China Sea," p. 139.] [28: James H. Hughes, "A Possible China-U.S. Confrontation in the Far East?," The Journal of Social, Political, andEconomic Studies (2012, Fall), 37(3), p. 279.] iii. Resources in South China Sea. In recent years, the Chinese economy has required increasingly large amounts of resources to keep it fueled, and the South China Sea represents a valuable addition to its existing natural resources.

For instance, Buszynski emphasizes that, "As global energy demand has risen, claimants have devised plans to exploit the sea's hydrocarbon reserves with disputes not surprisingly ensuing, particularly between China and Vietnam."[footnoteRef:29] The potential resources in the South China Sea and other undersea oil fields have attracted increasing interest from the Chinese leadership who believe these are essential to the country's continued economic growth.[footnoteRef:30] [29: Buszynski, "The South China Sea," p. 139.] [30: Hughes, "A Possible China-U.S. Confrontation," p. 280.] Figure 2.

Disputed areas in the South China Sea Source: http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/67616000/gif/_67616829_south_ china-sea_1_464.gif The South China Sea dispute primarily concerns territorial and sovereignty claims over various oceanic regions, as well as the Paracels and Spratlys island chains which have been claimed in whole or in part by several nations, including China.

Besides these formal islands, there are also numerous other smaller oceanic features such as sand bars and atolls as well as the Scarborough Shoal that are viewed as being potentially strategically valuable; however, the true value of the resources in the South China Sea remain speculative. For instance, according to the BBC, "Although largely uninhabited, the Paracels and the Spratlys may have reserves of natural resources around them.

There has been little detailed exploration of the area, so estimates are largely extrapolated from the mineral wealth of neighboring areas."[footnoteRef:31] Despite the speculative nature of the resources that may be available in the South China Sea, what is known for certain today is that the region is a major commercial shipping route as well as important fishing grounds for the South China Sea nations.[footnoteRef:32] [31: "South China Sea dispute" (2015, April 17), BBC. [online] available: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349, p. 3.] [32: "South China Sea dispute," p.

4.] Although several South China Sea nations claim various parts of the region, China's claims are the largest by far as demarcated by the so-called "nine-dash line" (depicted in red in Figure 2 above) that extends for hundreds of miles east and south from China's most southerly province, Hainan.[footnoteRef:33] The claims are based on centuries of Chinese territoriality and a map that dates to 1947 when the Paracel and Spratly island chains were shown as part of the Chinese nation, but these claims are also made by Taiwan.[footnoteRef:34] Conversely, Vietnam also lays claim to these island chains for the same reasons, arguing that it is exercised active rule over both island chains for more than 4 centuries and has documentary evidence to support these claims.

In addition, based on its close geographic proximity, the Philippines also claim the Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Shoal.[footnoteRef:35] Other actors in the conflict include Brunei and Malaysia which have claimed territories in the South China Sea based on the economic exclusion zones defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as also shown in Figure 2 above.

There have been some outright hostilities involved in the South China Sea conflict over the past 40 years, including most especially between China and Vietnam as well as China and the Philippines, as well as the following high-profile international incidents: [33: "South China Sea dispute," p. 4.] [34: "South China Sea dispute," p. 4.] [35: "South China Sea dispute," p.

5.] In 1974 the Chinese seized the Paracels from Vietnam, killing more than 70 Vietnamese troops; In 1988, China and Vietnam clashed over the Spratlys, with Vietnam again coming off worse, losing about 60 sailors; In early 2012, China and the Philippines engaged in a lengthy maritime stand-off, accusing each other of intrusions in the Scarborough Shoal; In July 2012, China angered Vietnam and the Philippines when it formally created Sansha city, an administrative body with its headquarters in the Paracels which it claims oversees Chinese territory in the South China Sea; Unverified claims that the Chinese navy sabotaged two Vietnamese exploration operations in late 2012 led to large anti-China protests on Vietnam's streets; In January 2013, the Philippines said it was taking China to a UN tribunal under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, to challenge its claims; In May 2014, the introduction by China of a drilling rig into waters near the Paracel Islands led to multiple collisions between Vietnamese and Chinese ships; and, In April 2015, satellite images showed China building an airstrip on reclaimed land in the Spratlys.[footnoteRef:36] [36: "South China Sea dispute," p.

5.] Notwithstanding the strategic importance and.