Effect of Abraham Accord on Iran

Future Challenges in the Middle East

Introduction

In spite of the Abraham Accords and the hopeful tone they represent in the Middle East, challenges remain. One challenge in particular is that of acceptance of the UAE’s new position with regards to Israel. While some Arabs are open to and supportive of the UAE’s decision to formalize ties with Israel, many other Arabs reject this development as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause. They continue to see Israel as a threat, based on past actions. They are unwilling to let go of the past to turn the page. This is seen in angry demonstrations like the ones recently held in Jordan (Al Bawaba, 2021). The other challenge comes from Iran. Iran has long been in a position of hostility with respect to Israel and the UAE. It has ties with Hamas and Hezbollah, and has supported Assad in Syria. Iran has made no secret of its dislike of Israel. For Arab states seeking ties with Israel, Iran remains an issue. What will Iran do if more Arab states turn to Israel for friendly relations?

Reputation of the UAE in the Arab World

The UAE’s reputation in the Arab world may suffer initially from the Abraham Accords. Already protests are being seen, as citizens of Arab states respond to the increasing ties and collaboration between Israel and the UAE. For instance, Al Bawaba (2021) reports that “activists started an ‘open protest’ in the Amman Interior Circle against the recent agreement signed between Jordan, Israel and the United Arab Emirates on the latest ways to increase cooperation in the fields of energy and electricity.” The news the joint agreement and letter of intent signed among these states fueled some anger among students in Jordan: “news of the agreement sent protests among student bodies in Aal Al Bayt and Al Hashimiyah universities against the new accord. Students at the University of Jordan also protested at the main university campus” (Al Bawaba, 2021). This kind of protest indicates that the Arab population in some Arab states—such as Jordan—is not open to the deal that the UAE has made with Israel. Jordan has had a semblance of a relationship with Israel in the past, but the UAE’s new deal has created an opportunity for other Arab states to follow suit. The only problem is that Arabs in other Arab states do not think very highly of Israel in most cases. For this reason, the UAE’s reputation in the Middle East may take a substantial blow—at least for the time being, as people process what is happening.

However, the UAE has enjoyed a favorable reputation in the Middle East. In fact, it has been ranked as the most reputable country in the Middle East as recently as 2018 (EMIC, 2018). The UAE’s “national economy is in a ‘strong position’ and stands at ‘high readiness’ for the future,” according to the UAE Media Office (The National, 2021). Since COVID struck the world, the UAE has taken steps to fortify its economic outlook, which has only given it more strength in the eyes of other nations: “The UAE has spent billions of dirhams in economic stimulus measures to support businesses since the Covid-19 outbreak began last year. Business activity in the non-oil private sectors of the Arab world’s second-biggest economy continued to improve in October, boosted by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, a rise in tourism and increased spending amid the economic recovery” (The National, 2021).

Its economy, its growth, and its willingness to work with other states have shown that it is a leader in the Arab world. In fact, the UAE’s reputation is high throughout the whole world, particularly because it is seen as a globalized state: as Medleva (2019) reports, “The United Arab Emirates can be rightfully termed a global phenomenon. In less than 50 years, the country has emerged from a sandy desert into a futuristic centre. It is an oasis, rich in history and traditions, but also embracing modernity.” The UAE’s transformation over half a century has impressed not only the Arab world but also the globe, which is why so many expatriates flock to the state year in and year out: “With a population of over 9.5 million people, 80% of which come from around the world as expatriate, the country is known for its fascinating architecture, luxury resorts, golden beaches, expensive cars and desert safaris. However, these are not the only factors that allure hundreds of thousands of international investors each year. The United Arab Emirates’ oil production, along with robust growth in other business sectors, has transformed the country into one of the Middle East’s major economic powerhouses” (Medleva, 2019). Thus, the UAE is seen as a leader in the region.

The problem now, however, is that the UAE with its modernized culture may not reflect the old attitudes still found among some Arab populations. The UAE has decided to put grudges aside and work more closely with Israel, which has largely been viewed by Arab populations as an aggressor in the Israel-Palestine conflict. The UAE still supports Palestinians, but it no longer does so by supporting Hamas or the Palestinian leaders. It has adopted an attitude of peace and collaboration in hopes of resolving the issues between Israel and its neighbors. Other Arabs see this as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause—but the hope is that in time they will realize that the UAE is onto the right track; that by working together with Israel, peace can be achieved, which can harmonize the region and allow everyone to co-exist.

So far not many Arab states have supported the UAE’s move to formalize relations with Israel. Yet, as time goes by, it is very likely that more and more Arab states will see the benefits of the UAE’s demonstration of good will towards Israel. Already it is rumored that Saudi Arabia would like to follow suit. The problem is the same there as in other states like Jordan, though: the Arab people might protest and might cause problems for the state. The UAE is unique in that it has prepped its people for its decision, and the people seem to support it by and large. They like the idea of opening tourism to Israel, and they like the idea of closer integration between the two states on matters of energy, trade, security, technology and agriculture. They see it as a win-win situation. Other Arabs in the Middle East have not had the same cultural guidance as people in the UAE have had, and that may be the challenge going forward. The UAE is a very metropolitan state with so many people from all over the world coming there to live and work. Other Arab states do not have the same level of attraction, but if their leaders begin to focus on development and cultural appreciation, the future may show that the Arab world’s regard for the UAE has grown since the Abraham Accords—in spite of the initial controversy.

Iranian Challenge

There remains the Iranian challenge, however. Iran feels more isolated as a result of the Abraham Accords, because Israel—its main enemy in the Middle East—now appears stronger due to the formalization of ties between itself and the UAE as well as a handful of other Arab states. As Bryen (2020) notes, the Abraham Accords may even make Iran more hostile in the region. This would especially be the case if, as Thardak (2021) argues, Iraq might be the next Arab state to sign the Abraham Accords—even “as Iran and Saudi Arabia inch closer towards burying the hatchet and normalise their ties.” If Iraq were to normalize ties with Israel it would put Iran in a very isolated position—and it might lash out by working much harder to get nuclear weapons in the face of the new alliance.

The Strategy Page (2020) points out that “the UAE has been the most successful Arab oil state in developing an economy that can replace the oil income when it is gone” and that “what really prompted the recent willingness to have Israel as an ally rather than an enemy was the growing threat from Iran.” The problem with Iran is that “the Iranian rulers see the Abraham Accords as a death threat while a growing number of Iraqis and Iranians see it as a way out” (Strategy Page, 2020). In other words, the populaces of Iraq and Iran view the Abraham Accords favorably—but it is the leadership of Iran that views it with scorn. If these leaders are able to push forward with their agenda, they could disrupt the peace that the UAE and other Arabs are working to build with Israel.

What will Iran do as a result of the Abraham Accords? That is the major question going forward. Will it pursue a project of nuclear armament? Will it seek out its own alliances in order to confront the new alliances being made in the Middle East between Israel and other Arab states? Iran is on record stating that “We will not allow the Zionists to disrupt our ties with the neighbors” (Mousavizadeh, 2021). Even as other Arab states’ leaders are beginning to open up to Israel, Iran remains adamant that Israel is the enemy of the Middle East. This attitude and stance is likely to lead to an escalation of tension and potentially to conflicts in the region. Israel will not support the nuclear development program in Iran, and Iran is intent on gaining nuclear power if not weapons. If it feels pushed to the margins in the Middle East and sees a growing body of Arab states collaborating more closely with Israel it is likely that Iran may even develop the nuclear weapons it says, for now, it has no intention of developing.

Thus, Iran represents a challenge going forward. The Middle East appears to have turned a corner with the UAE-Israel deal—but the problems of culture remain. Iran reflects a popular resistance in parts of the Arab world: it refuses to accept Israel as a valid neighbor. Some members of Arab states, such as in Jordan, feel the same. But other members of Arab states—like those in the UAE are willing to move on from the past and accept Israel on an equal footing. They see the benefits of working with Israel towards mutually beneficial aims. If some of the people of Iran feel the same, they will need to make their voices heard—but for the time being Iran’s leaders appear deaf to such calls: they are insistent that Iran be able to develop nuclear power and that Israel be viewed as the enemy. Iran is currently still under sanctions from the US and talks to restart the nuclear program have stalled again and again since the Trump Administration. Iran could be a wrench in the works of the Middle East peace that the UAE is trying to develop. But at the same time, the UAE is seen as moving closer to Israel out of fear for Iran. So what is needed, perhaps, is more dialogue and diplomacy on all sides so that Iran can feel more integrated and safe in the Middle East, and so that its attitude can be changed with regards to Israel.