Effects of the European debt crisis on equity and debt markets

European Debt Crisis

Beginning in 2010, Europe was plunged into a major financial crisis. This is because many of the weaker member states (i.e. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland) were running high deficits to finance different social programs. When the economy was strong, these initiatives were used as a way to help win the support of the electorate. At the same time, many individuals believed that this kind of approach was ensuring that everyone had a social safety net. (Cline 2012)

However, as the crisis began to worsen, these high debt levels weighed on the financial position of different governments. This is from the slowing economy hurting their tax revenues and the inability to continue borrowing made it difficult to deal with these challenges. When this happened, these nations were plunged into a crisis that effected unemployment, the economy and the financial markets. (27 Statistics 2012) (Greek Unemployment Hits 21% 2012) (Spain's Lose -- Lose Struggle 2012)

Evidence of this can be seen in the below table which is highlighting the current unemployment rates for Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland.

2012 Unemployment Rates for Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland

Country

Unemployment Rate

Greece

21.8%

Spain

23.6%

Portugal

15.0%

Italy

31.9%

Ireland

14.7%

(27 Statistics 2012) (Greek Unemployment Hits 21% 2012) (Spain's Lose -- Lose Struggle 2012)

These figures are showing how the weaker countries are facing economic challenges (which are having an adverse impact on the entire Euro Zone). To fully understand what is happening, there will be a focus on the way government debt problems of the smaller nations are impacting Europe's financial indices. This will be accomplished by looking at the effects on: the equity / debt exchange markets and how these issues are influencing the EU. Together, these elements will highlight the way the crisis spread and why there is an emphasis on contagion.

The Equity Markets

The crisis in the Euro Zone is having a dramatic impact on all of the stock markets across the continent. This is because there are concerns that issues in one country will spill over into other nations. When this happens, the underlying situation will become more severe. The reason why is from the crisis eroding confidence (which is leading to major sell offs in the equity markets). For the more developed nations (i.e. Great Britain), this is hurting the performance of their indices. (Yardeni 2012) (Spain Emerges 2012)

A good example of this can be seen in the below table which is comparing the performance of the financial markets for: Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, the UK, France and Germany.

Equity Market Financial Performance of the Euro Zone Countries for 2012

Country

2012 Return

Greece

-30.0%

Portugal

-9.3%

Spain

-3.5%

Italy

-1.2%

UK

3.4%

France

4.2%

Germany

12.1%

(Yardeni 2012) (Spain Emerges 2012)

These figures are illustrating how the equity markets in the weaker countries have been negatively affected by the crisis. This has caused investors to sell assets in these regions in order to find greater amounts of growth and stability. (Yardeni 2012) (Spain Emerges 2012)

However, in the case of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy there are tremendous amounts of volatility. This is because of the uncertainty about the fiscal situation has led to periods of extreme sell offs and rallies in the averages. To prevent the crisis from becoming worse, many of the stronger nations wanted to contain these problems. This would mitigate the adverse effects on investor confidence (which will reduce the sell offs in the stronger economies). (Yardeni 2012) (Spain Emerges 2012)

The above table is illustrating, how these worries can force investors to seek out regions where they will have more strength and the potential for a larger return. As a result, there has been a concentrated effort that is focused on providing continuing assurance to investors. This has led to periods where there are extreme amounts of fear that are followed by renewed optimism about these worries being overblown. (Yardeni 2012) (Spain Emerges 2012)

How the Crisis is Impacting Europe?

The impact of the crisis is that there must be more steps taken to deal with the lingering financial issues in weaker member states. This is because the EU was established as a loose confederation that gave each nation the power to control their finances. Yet, it also created a single currency and streamlined the economies into one. If there are challenges in a specific region, it has the potential to spread to other nations. The reason why is: their economies, currency and financial systems are all interconnected. (Lima 2012)

This has made the situation worse, by causing weaker states to drag down economic growth and increase unemployment. To prevent this from affecting the entire EU, the stronger nations have been working with these states to reduce government spending, entitlement programs and reform their economies. (Lima 2012) (Emerson 2012)

However, this process has caused unemployment rates to increase exponentially in these areas (as these nations are dealing with financial depressions). This has fueled anger about these cuts and led to calls that some of the weaker members should not be allowed to remain in the EU. Yet, despite these challenges the governments have been enacting reforms to reduce the underlying debt load. (Lima 2012) (Emerson 2012)

In the long-term, these measures will enact changes that will improve the financial condition of these nations. For example, in Portugal the IMF is predicting that GDP to debt ratios will peak at 115% by next year. In the first half of 2013, this will cause the economy to contract by 3.0%. However, after this takes place they believe that these transformations will reduce the deficit and debt load in the next several years. (Lima 2012) (Emerson 2012)

This is from the government implementing dramatic cuts to austerity programs and increasing taxes. These shifts will help the economy to begin to stabilize in late 2013 to early 2014. When this takes place, Portugal will be able to consistently decrease their overall amounts of debt (which will improve economic growth and investor confidence). (Lima 2012) (Emerson 2012) This will have a positive impact on the stock and bond markets. It is at this point that the country can begin to experience an increase in foreign direct investment capital.

Another possible strategy that has been discussed is to have the EU create their own form of bonds (i.e. Euro Bonds). The basic idea is that interlinking the stronger and weaker economies together will have greater fiscal controls over government spending. However, there are divisions among some nations (i.e. France and Germany) about when they should be issued. France believes that these instruments must be used right away for dealing with all of the weaker nations' financial problems. Whereas Germany, feels that this is not a substitute for the fiscal causes. Instead, they want to see these nations' make drastic changes to austerity programs, spending and taxes. Once this happens, is the point that Germany thinks that Euro Bonds should be issued. This is because they believe that there needs to be a long-term solution to the challenges facing the EU. In the future, this will create a situation where the fiscal problems can be rectified with greater controls on the financial system. (Mody 2012)

This is transforming the European markets by having the EU play a larger role. Over the course of time, this means that national governments will have fewer controls. It is at this point that a precedent will be established which is streamlining these countries together even more. Once this takes place, is when EU standards will become common throughout the region. This will result in longer term stability and growth. The current steps that are being taken are leading Europe down this path. When the financial crisis is over, this will more than likely become a major feature. (Mody 2012)

These factors are showing, how the crisis is changing the way that smaller EU countries deal with financial issues. In the future, this will help Europe to become more unified and capable of addressing numerous challenges. However, there will also be changes in the way many states provide social programs and support. This will result in short to medium term adjustments. During this process these economies will remain stagnant. Yet, over longer periods of time is when these transformations will help these states to have fiscally responsible programs. This will ensure that the EU can experience extended periods of above average growth. (Lima 2012) (Emerson 2012)

The events in Portugal are indicating how there will be short-term problems, which are followed by longer periods of responsible economic growth. This will make it easier for everyone to have access to opportunities that will allow them to innovate and increase their standard of living. Over the course of time, these transformations will ensure that the weakest of Europe's economies are protected against sudden financial shocks. (Mody 2012)

This is the point that the Euro Zone will experience above average growth. The key going forward is to prevent the spiraling amounts of debt from increasing and imposing severe changes to these nation's financial systems. This will impact everyone by improving investor confidence and it will enhance the basic economic model that is utilized.

As a result, these changes mean that national governments will have less influence over their own fiscal affairs. Instead, they will have to follow basic standards that are imposed by the EU. Moreover, the issuing of Euro Bonds will make these economies interconnected with each other. This will create a financial incentive for these nations to abide by (based on the support that they are receiving). When this happens, there will be dramatic changes in the roles that national governments are playing in spending and taxation programs. This means that the individual state will become subservient to the economic policies and procedures that are implemented by the EU. (Mody 2012)