Internet websites: structure, function, and design

¶ … Future Trends

An Evaluation of Key Technology Trends

The intent of this paper is to evaluate several emerging technologies and define what they specifically are in terms of both concepts and prototypes, what they specifically are designed to do, why they are important, what applications and implications these emerging technologies have for individuals and organizations, and what the major barriers are to rapid and widespread deployment.

A wide variety of sources have been used in the definition of these key trends, and they are referenced and listed in the bibliography of this paper. A summary is also included that defines overall expectations for technological change over the next few years and the evaluation of its prospective effects. The several key trends are defined below.

Identity Verification using biometrics and the Quantification of Trust

The near-daily reports of databases of personal information being compromised is now commonplace, which has fuelled the growth of identity-based applications of biometric technologies and on a broader context, the quantification of trust within the mobile, convergence devices (cell phones, MP3 players and PDAs) and the pervasive need for great identity verification throughout all aspects of daily interactions people have with the Internet. This is a broad, far-reaching and strategic trend, and for purposes of this analysis, just the verification of identity and with it, risk assessment and management will be discussed.

Central to this specific area for identity is the use of constraint-based software applications that can interpolate the identity of a person and also asses their relative levels of risk in purchasing goods and services on credit. Fair Isaac and the enhancements to their Blaze Advisor (2006) are specifically designed to provide financial institutions with entirely new and more accurate approaches to quantifying the identity of people before they purchase, and once they begin the purchase process, better calculate risk and more accurate predict the impact of the purchase on a person's FICO score, or credit score. This constraint-based technology is important in that it both protects the consumer for fraud and identity theft, it also protects merchants and especially financial institutions from erroneously writing bad loans.

This enhancement to constraint-based software technologies is also very important from the many potential applications in solving constraint-based workflows of supply chains in highly volatile and frequently changing industries including high tech semiconductor production, microprocessor development and production, and solving the complexities of customized vehicles, as Toyota does with their Scion product family. The implications for individuals and organizations both is greater validation of an individual's identity and therefore much higher levels of security, and for the organization or business, greater assurance that the relative level of risk, is invaluable. This dramatically cuts the potential of a person having their identity stolen and in the event it is attempted to be stolen, the constraint technologies in the Fair Isaac Blaze constraint technologies will reject the request for credit from a fraudulent person. In terms of what's driving the level of adoption in key industries that could most use this technology including financial services, there is the ROI of risk mitigation companies in this sector readily identify with. The extreme risk aversion in the financial services industry is a major driver of adoption alone, as is risk reduction across the many other industries that must verify a person's identity and creditworthiness before giving them a credit card, home or auto loan, or any other financial transactions. The one major barrier to the adoption of Fair Isaac's Blaze is the technical expertise required in the information technologies organizations of these companies to complete its implementation and ongoing support. Another challenge to implementation is the need to integrate the Fair Isaac Blaze engine throughout the entire series of data sources and repositories of knowledge throughout any given company. For some larger financial services companies this can be a massive effort.

Software Services and the SaaS are transforming the enterprise software landscape. The SaaS business model has transformed how companies buy enterprise software, and this hasn't just been an aberration, it is going to be permanent. Software-as-a-Service is the enabling of software applications over the Internet, accessible through a browser, available on a 24/7 basis. While salesforce.com pioneered the development of software available on the SaaS platform, specifically for CRM, there are many more software companies pioneering the development of service-based applications using a SaaS-based strategy to accomplish this objective. AMR Research (2005) has quantified this impact of the SaaS model on the enterprise software marketplace in their press release mentioned in the references of this analysis.

SaaS' pervasiveness in the enterprise software arena is now moving into the most complex and highly synchronized of applications, ERP systems. Sweeney (2006) mentions this dynamic in her research and writing, illustrating the transition of SaaS from being a purely customer-facing technology to one that is focused on unifying the entire enterprise. Also inherent in this definition of SaaS is the rise in Service Level Agreements and the intricacies of how to manage integrating systems with SaaS-based applications. This is one of the most significant constraints in the adoption of SaaS throughout enterprises. The low cost of using hosted or SaaS application is attractive especially for manufacturers, and useful for system users who can access their applications directly through a web browser. The biggest constraint of SaaS becoming more pervasive is the reliance many manufacturers have on Return on Investment (ROI) and Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is the fact that by definition this class of application is leased; therefore there is no basis for ROI or TCO calculations. Companies are looking past this however and moving towards a leased model despite the lack of firm financial metrics.

Google's move into applications is the shape of global network services providers becoming application hubs. Much is written on websites of interest of Google striving to attain its goal of being a communications hub capable of selling not only advertising on the Web but also on television and even on cell phones, all of which the company has hinted at in terms of its strategic direction. The ability to sustain media sources across telecommunications, telephone, television and mobile phones is where Google sees the long-term play of their business. Their recent announcement of a spreadsheet application is just a trial balloon to see how thin-client applications will eventually play across all media sources they eventually plan to be on. Google will after this build out attempt to have a premium performance Internet, which will be specifically built for enterprises who need more targeted financial, business, market, and technical information as well. By definition a communication hub also includes application software, and the rumors of Google moving into CRM and contact management appear feasible and probable over time when one considers the patents Google owns for web searching and search bot technologies. The creation of a customized system of record is entirely feasible for Google and their use of latent semantic indexing technologies. The implications for both individuals and organizations is powerful and lasting, as Google could easily create a voluminous and easily navigable database of every consumer to opt-in and look for books on a specific subject area. The potential of Google as the basis of a CRM system, entailing the revenue streams inherent in application sharing, is just as significant as their revenue stream from ad sales with AdSense and AdWords. The impediments to this specific technology being launched are the skill set in Google to manage application development and maintenance. For the Google customers the implications are very advantageous and could catapult entirely new companies into existence.

Real-time analytics, business process outsourcing, and compliance will combine to create the perfect storm for measuring the impact of it on business strategies. There's a continual debate from Nick Carr (2003), author of it Doesn't Matter on the one hand and it analysts, executives, and pundits on the other argue that it's impact on companies is lasting, measurable, and significant.

At the center of this argument of it's relevance is the role of networks and their ability to act as the foundation for delivering real-time analytics of networking performance and relative levels of process improvements based on it investments. Exacerbating this is the growth in spending for compliance to not only Sarbanes-Oxley requirements, but also for all forms of compliance that companies must adhere to. The use of analytics to quantify the contributions of business process outsourcing and compliance is coming rapidly, especially into manufacturing companies whose costs are spread typically across multiple production centers. The triad of analytics, business process outsourcing, and compliance is going to bring with it an even greater focus on accountability across networks, their performance, and their contributions to strategies. Analytics becomes the foundation then, supporting business process outsourcing and refinement, in addition to compliance layered on top of processes for the short-term gain of regulatory approvals of financial statements and the long-term gain of making business processes much more efficient for the long-term. Quantifying the payoff of business process outsourcing strategies and compliance is going to increase reliance on analytics, over and above its critical role in it today. The implications for consumers are significant in that marketing strategies and overall programs more aligned to their specific needs, and for the organization, better and more accurate reporting and compliance while having more aligned marketing strategies. The focus on these three aspects coming together mean more efficient service to customers while enabling organizations to have more relevant products, services, and strategies for new and existing customers.

Supply chain strategies get anchored in network-based data synchronization. It in the context of supply chains has often been as serial-based in its approach to managing processes as the movement of the packages these networks manage. With the rise in Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) and the massive amount of data that is being generated as a result, the need for networks to synchronize data from supply chains and retailers is critical. This data synchronization component that takes in RFID data from retailer's channels on the one hand and delivers reports, insights and analysis to network users on the other is currently the weakest link in this rapidly evolving supply chain. In 2006 the dearth, or absence, of tools for managing this data generated by Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems and its parsing, analyzing and use on networks, will be bridged. This area of supply chain data and its resulting need for synchronization is going to be one of the biggest trends impacting networks and network administration within manufacturing companies globally who rely on retailers for the majority of their revenue.