Jeff Rubin\'s Why Your World

Jeff Rubin's Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization

Jeff Rubin's book, Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization, has a lot of broad implications for energy issues from a societal standpoint. It would be good for people who are fascinated by energy and who like energy issues or who invest in energy stocks. Anyone who is investing in any kind of stocks should be paying close attention to what he or she is doing and to what the market is doing, as well. However, sometimes a boost is needed, and that is where books like this one come in. While not perfect, there are many good points brought up in Rubin's book. One of the most fascinating issues that he discusses is the major premise of the book -- that the high costs of energy will eventually put an end to the marketplace on a global scale.

This is the opposite of some other learned opinions on the matter. The basic argument that Rubin offers for this is that the high prices of energy will become more significant than the lower labor costs that companies are getting by using workers in developing companies -- basically the opposite of Tom Friedman's 'world is flat' idea. If that takes place, re-industrialization will not only take place but be required. Things will start being made in the United States again instead of being created in other countries and shipped over. The America of the 1950s will return, to some degree, with the work ethics and values that were seen during that time, at least from a job and product creation standpoint.

There are many economists that talk about globalization and say that they find it to be irreversible, but Rubin does not agree with that. Globalization, in his view, has come about because energy is so cheap that it is allowing companies to ship almost anything at very low costs. If it starts to cost too much to ship things, those things will be made closer to where they will be purchased, instead of halfway across the country or the world. Rubin is not the first person to come up with this theme and to address the pros and cons of cheap energy. Both Stephen Leeb and Chris Steiner have done this, as have some other authors. However, Rubin's book covers not only economics, but sociology as well.

If a person wants to know how he should make money from the energy shortages that are bound to occur, Leeb can help with that. Steiner can leave a person hopeful about an America that is simpler and more focused on community. Neither one of them can do what Rubin does, though, in incorporating the financial and the community aspects of the issue into one concise book. It is a very helpful guide to the problem of what will happen to the resources of the planet and America in the next 20 years and beyond. The idea of being able to extend and adjust resources now is something that the current Administration has talked about, and Rubin's book reinforces the necessity of making changes and doing something differently.

Right at the beginning of page one, Rubin declares that the problems that were seen in 2008 from the standpoint of a global financial meltdown did not all come about because people had bad mortgages. That was certainly part of the equation, but the rising and ridiculously high cost of oil was a large part of that, as well. Many people seemed to have suspected that this was true for some time, but they did not want to speak out for fear of persecution. Rubin is not afraid to tell the truth and to say what is really taking place. I am in agreement with most of what he has to say, because there is more to a financial crisis than one component (mortgages).

There have to be failures in several sectors of the economy to have serious problems on a global scale, and the cost of energy easily becomes one of the sectors where problems appear and become larger than life if they are allowed to continue. Rubin, unafraid, talks about the turning point that society has reached. He believes that 2008 was the peak of the age of low-cost energy, and America (as well as the rest of the world) has passed over that peak now. Things will become more difficult because oil is going to become increasingly harder to find and remove from the ground.

That means it will cost much more, and it is very possible that there will never be much more oil produced than there was in 2008. The demand will continue to rise, and if the supply does not rise with it, the cost will go up sharply. Rubin also gives a warning in his book, in that there will be two choices for the world over the next handful of years. It either must transition society over to a group that is less energy-intensive and more community-oriented, or continue to see recession following recession each time the demand for something is greater than the supply. Eventually, this resource will be completely gone, depleted while people bang their heads against the wall and wail and complain and wonder what to do next. Unfortunately, they may not see until it is too late that they could have stopped it.

Rubin has had a history of good predictions. He stated when oil would hit one hundred dollars a barrel, and just weeks after this book was published oil started to recover, doubling in price. His prediction is for oil that reaches two hundred dollars per barrel and gasoline that reaches seven dollars per gallon -- that is, if things do not change and the world keeps going along the way it has been. These kinds of problems can be corrected, but only if the world realizes and recognizes them, and only if steps are then taken to change them. If these things are not addressed and dealt with, oil will be in short supply and high demand, which will drive the price to levels that many people simply cannot afford.

One reason that the book has such value is that it shows an economist being willing to acknowledge what a lot of economists refuse to: that resources and economic growth are both actually limited commodities instead of things that are in unlimited supplies and that no one ever has to worry about. Another reason that the book has value is that Rubin shows the reader that there is legitimate hope. There are ways to make the world 'smaller' from an energy-intensive standpoint, and that could (and should) lead to a world that is happier and that functions better overall. This is not a pipe dream. It is something that can actually be done. It is achievable, but the desire to create a better, more energy-efficient and community-centered world must be present first. Undoubtedly, Rubin will have more to say about the issue in the years to come.

This book is definitely recommended reading for anyone who wants to learn more about the economy, oil, and how the world actually works. The 'average Joe' can learn a lot from Rubin's information. It is not necessary to be a politician, a geologist, an economist, or the employee of an oil company in order to see how much value Rubin's work has. The supply of oil and the price of it has the potential to affect the lives of almost everyone. Whether a person is rich or poor, black or white, or any other combination, oil and energy are part of life. It is not just about gasoline to put in the family car. It is also about things like heating oil for the home, natural gas, and the shipping of all types of goods and services throughout the country and around the world.

It is true that some of the information Rubin presents is not new. There are only so many ways to explain to someone that the world is running out of energy resources and that something needs to be done before all of them go away. However, the detail that Rubin goes into regarding supply and demand, and the care with which he shows what can -- and may -- happen, is very significant. Although it is detailed, it is also written in terms that anyone can understand. It does not have to be 'dumbed down' to be easily understandable by the majority of people. It only has to be explained clearly and distinctly -- and Rubin has done this. It is a large part of what makes his work so valuable in the field of energy and information today.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Rubin is right and that the problems he discusses in his book will come to pass, but they are still clearly plausible. That is enough to get people's attention. If nothing else, Rubin provides a lot of food for thought between the covers of his book, and he helps to reveal some of the mysteries and intricacies of why the world operates the way it does. Where energy is concerned that is vital information, because it does not just affect one person or one state or even one country. Because society has become so global so quickly, energy consumption and cost is something that everyone must be aware of and that can either help or hinder most of what people do in society, both now and into the future. By realizing this and bringing it to light, Rubin is doing a service to humanity.

One of the things that Rubin does very well in the book is to take a lot of diverse information and put it together so that it ties in well. By making it cohesive, and keeping it 'friendly' instead of filling it full of stuffy, boring facts and statistics, he keeps readers' attention. Of course, the information is backed up with facts and sources. There are more than ten pages at the end of the book that contain source notes. Anyone with questions over where Rubin's information came from can easily look at these notes and find the validity of the sources. They can also use those source notes to read more about the issues presented in the book.

It is a thorough book that provides enough background to have a good understanding of the issue. It also shows how the various elements Rubin addresses relate to one another so that they all make sense and tie in properly. In addition, the numerous countries that are affected by this are discussed, as well as the roles that they play in the overall issue. People need to understand how these things are all interconnected instead of living without being aware of what is really taking place around them. Rubin's book will not provide everything that a person can possibly learn about this issue, but it will provide enough to make a very good, informed start, and to give an interested person a place to go next.

Like any work that addresses global issues or calls into question the way that people operate their businesses or their countries, there are some concerns with Rubin's book, as well. No book that deals with these kinds of issues is perfect or has everything sewn up in a neat and tidy little package. There are always loose ends, assumptions, and other issues that need to be resolved. It is clear that Rubin makes many points that are meaningful and valid. Most of the scenarios he creates are possible, if not plausible. However, the conclusions that he draws are not as substantiated by his eleven pages of source notes as it would appear. The idea that cheap oil is diminishing and has the potential to go away completely is certainly possible and may be accurate, but without a way to back that up it enters the realm of opinion, not fact, which is not the same and does not necessarily offer the same possibilities or probabilities for the future of the world.

Authoritative references regarding what will happen (as much as anyone can actually know that) are really lacking in Rubin's book. Many sources and notes and references do not mean that those sources and references and notes are valid, valuable, or the right ones for the conclusions being drawn. Where Rubin goes wrong is in making the assumption that oil companies and automobile manufacturing companies will ignore all of the issues that they are facing until they eventually end up bankrupt. They have done this, to a certain extent, just recently. Now, with Ford being the one to lead the way, they are changing and adapting to the issues surrounding the use of energy and fuel, and they are doing this even though the United States still sees gasoline prices that are under three dollars per gallon -- so there is change taking place already.

Rubin assumes that America and the rest of the world are going to be staying static, and not changing anything for the better (or the worse) because they do not or cannot see the point of making the changes. By assuming such a static U.S., Rubin is ignoring the fact that the United States has always and consistently shown that it is able and willing to be flexible and dynamic, and to adapt to what is necessary to keep moving forward. The cornerstone of the success of America and the American people has been that ability to adapt. Most Americans, for example, know that SUVs can guzzle gas, but they are certainly also capable of figuring how much extra in fuel they would be spending -- and it is often not that much.

If gasoline were seven or eight or ten dollars a gallon, suddenly the difference between a vehicle getting 20 MPG and one getting 30 MPG tells a much different story at the fuel pump and over the course of time. This incredible rise in gasoline prices has not taken place, and there is no direct, specific evidence to say it will. Even if it does, it is not something that will be taking place overnight. These kinds of changes happen over time, and that means that people can see them coming in time to avoid them, change them, or -- at the very least -- find a way to adapt to them so that things work out for the good of the country.

Rubin does spend some time in the book 'beating up' the United States for inventing more and better things for vehicles that run on gasoline instead of starting out with electric cars when automotive development was still in its infancy. However, one can only play the hand that he is dealt, and Rubin cannot know what would have taken place if electric cars would have been used, instead of cars that run on fossil fuels. Would the lead acid batteries in the entire world's production of vehicles have led to serious levels of lead in the drinking water and in the soil? Would lead poisoning have become as much of a concern as the disappearing fossil fuels? We do not know. What is more, we cannot know, because there is no way to go back and find out. Even scenarios and computer simulations really do not give a definitive answer, and, therefore, Rubin cannot give one, either.

Rubin appears to have a lot of enthusiasm for his task and his work, and also for the environment. These are all good things. They bring the reader back to agrarian culture, homespun and homegrown communities where everyone helped one another out, and a much more limited usage of -- and need for -- electric power, fossil fuels, and the like. These are not bad things, but they are not the way the majority of the world works anymore. People have 'evolved' -- if that is what one would call it -- beyond those simple pleasures and are more focused on labor-saving devices that work well but require a tremendous amount of energy. These things use up resources. Period. But it is not likely that people are going to shy away from them and give them up. They have become part of the culture.

Another issue that Rubin does not address is solar power. Collecting cheap and abundant power from the sun, wind, and water has been talked about for a very long time, but it is still a challenge to make it efficient enough to work for the majority of people -- and to make it affordable and desirable for them. Green technology is becoming more valuable, though, and product design is slowly starting to be driven by it in some sectors. That shows progress, and is a good sign. But it does not appear to be enough just yet. Engineers and scientists are still challenged by everything that green technology offers and requires, and economic forces across the planet must support green technology efforts they are to move forward and help save the planet from its people.

Rubin is on-target to a certain extent, but in the most pessimistic of ways. He makes a very good case when just the problem is looked at, but he does not make a good case about the solution. The United States -- and the world, overall -- has a collective capacity to pull together when necessary and to work toward better solutions and a better world. That is a very important component of this issue, and it appears to be one that Rubin does not realize or remember when he details where this planet and its people are headed. Another downfall of Rubin's book is that he assumes rational behavior on the part of the suppliers and the consumers.