North Africa Nation Building

North Africa Nation Building Authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa have been collapsing unexpectedly over the past year, or at least are under severe challenge by their own people for the first time in decades. In Tunisia, the first North African country to overthrow an entrenched dictatorship, the recent elections appear to have been free and fair, resulting in the election of a moderate Islamic government and the other nations of the region will be fortunate indeed if they are able to follow this model.

In Libya, the United Nations Security Council has just called for an end to NATO military operations and a transition to democracy with respect for the rule of law and human rights. Moreover, the UN has insisted on respect for human rights in Egypt and a full investigation of recent clashes between Christians and Muslims there.

In both Libya and Egypt, the danger of civil war and fragmentation along ethnic, religious and tribal lines remains all too real, and it would be a tragedy if these countries turned into another Iraq or Afghanistan. Certainly the African Union can play an important part, such as by sending observer missions as it did in the recent elections in Tunisia and opening a new liaison office in Tripoli, Libya to support the transition to democracy.

Universities and non-governmental organizations will have influence in these transition phases as well, especially in coordinating with educational institutions and other sectors of civil society. Global economic institutions like the G-20, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization will be involved as well, although grave doubts remain about their receptiveness to the needs and interests of developing nations or the extremely limited influence poorer countries have in their policymaking. Recent events in Libya and Egypt have taken a dramatic turn, particularly with the death of Col.

Muamar Kadaffy and the official end of NATO operations there, as well as ongoing riots and clashes in Egypt between religious groups and elements of the old regime. In both cases, the transition to democracy is not at all certain to be smooth or rapid, although the United Nations and the Western powers have been using their influence to assist in this process.

Egypt's transition to democracy seems to be slowing down since elections have not been held yet and recent clashes between Christians and Muslims, perhaps provoked by security forces and elements of the old regime, raised fears that the country could devolve into another Iraq. The United Nations does have some influence in this situation, and "called on authorities to carry out an impartial and independent investigation into the incident" (UN News Centre, October 11, 2011).

About twenty-four people were killed and hundreds injured, mainly by the military and police, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). All the Western nations also "urged the authorities to ensure the protection of all, including minority groups, in their rightful exercise of such freedoms" (UN News Centre, October 11, 2011). In Libya on October 27, 2011, the UN Security Council ordered an end to NATO military operations, since Col. Kadaffy was dead and military resistance had crumbled with the capture of his hometown.

This resolution also ended the no-fly zone over Libya and was passed unanimously by all fifteen members, who also stated that "the North African country now had better prospects for a 'democratic, peaceful and prosperous future there'" (UN News Centre, October 27, 2011). The Security Council called for a gradual transition to democracy with the rule of law, transparency and respect for human rights, while avoiding reprisals and extrajudicial executions. Libya's National Transition Council also announced that the country had been completely liberated, eight months after the uprising began.

Almost all of the countries in North Africa and have been under authoritarian rule for decades, yet every one of them has been shaken by the protests and popular revolutions over the past year. Protests have even spread to Burkina Faso, Nigeria and other West African states that have usually not been particularly responsive to the popular will.

In Burkina Faso, even though it received little international coverage, demonstrators were outraged when police beat a high school student to death and began to demand "the departure of the president, Blaise Compaore, who has been in office for 24 years" (Illy and Omobolaji 2011). Because of the revolts throughout the Middle East authoritarian African leaders are now extremely nervous, although as with the Middle East and North Africa whether this will result in long lasting change remains to be seen.

Nigeria's national assembly quickly passed a Freedom of Information law and a new minimum wage bill which had been stalled for many years. That such swift passage "came in the wake of the popular revolts in the Middle East and North Africa" was hardly a coincidence. At present, the political situation in West Africa remains tense as the effects of popular rebellions in North Africa continue to ripple through the rest of the continent (Illy and Omobolaji 2011).

Cynthia McKinney, a well-known American antiwar activist who has been highly critical of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, opposed military intervention in Libya. Her criticism is no longer particularly relevant at this point, given that Col. Kadaffi is dead and the United Nations has brought the NATO mission to an end.

Whether or not the country will hold together or erupt into tribal and civil war remains to be seen, although she is correct that Al Fateh University will have a useful and worthwhile role to play in the reconstruction of Libya. She wrote that "student life seemed vibrant. This feel and ambiance of this university was not unlike the hundreds of other universities that I have visited in the U.S. And around the world" (McKinney 2011).

Libya will have considerable revenue from oil resources and some of that should be spent on education at all levels, including the building program that she described at the university. Programs to expand international cooperation with other universities should be continued and expanded. Campus B. has 10,000 undergraduates, over 800 graduate students and 400 faculty and staff, although it was damaged by a NATO missile strike none of the students were killed and the damage does not appear to be irreparable.

Al Fateh University is basically free to all students, charging nothing for books and only about $9 a year for tuition, and this policy should continue now that the war is over. Compared to American universities, which students today graduate with debts of tens of thousands of dollars, this system of free education is certainly preferable. McKinney is also correct in observing that the populations of the developing world truly do need "voting rights, democracy, medical care, education, welfare" and policies that enhance "personal income and wealth distribution" (McKinney 2011).

It remains to be seen whether the new government of Libya will be a democratic one that can provide for the social and economic needs of its people. Although the Arab Spring did arouse hopes that real democracy would become possible for the first time in these countries, ensuring such a transition will be problematic at best.

Before the uprisings and revolutions began, most of the Arab countries were Limited Access Orders (LAOs) that "incorporated only a very limited range of organizations in the dominant coalition -- ruling families, the army, perhaps one or two loyal political parties, as well as religious organizations and business firms that allied with the political elite or at least stayed out of politics" (Webb 2011). Popular organizations, labor unions, women's groups and political parties were suppressed or not allowed to exist at all as part of the political system.

Any genuine democratic transition will have to permit these to exist and participate in the new political process. As in most developing nations and extremely oligarchic Western nations like the United States, most economic rents went into the hands of favored elites. In the Middle East and North Africa, reconstruction will mean that previously excluded groups will be demanding an increased share of these rents, but "even if they hold fair elections, they will not soon become Western European-style democracies" (Webb 2011).

Middle Eastern dictators like Assad, Kadaffi and Mubarak exercised highly corrupt and personalistic forms of rule, yet they were aided by the military, security forces, cronies and family-led economic organizations and paramilitary groups. Even with the head of the dictatorship removed "these organizations have retained their violence potential, their interests and political importance will usually persist, so they are likely to play a role in the evolving political arrangements" (Webb 2011).

They will very likely remain in place for decades, although this does not necessarily mean that they will remain purely authoritarian systems like China and Myanmar. Elections should be open to participation by popular organizations that are free to organize their supporters and include them in the sharing out of economic rents. If this does not occur, then violence, tribal conflict and civil war will become more likely.

Some organizations like the Bedouin tribes and Muslim Brotherhood were also retain their private paramilitary organizations rather than merging them with the new state structure and institutions, and "tolerating their armed status is a way for the central authority to make credible a commitment not to suppress those groups" (Webb 2011). Any transition to democracy will probably turn out to be incremental and gradualist with improvements in the rule-of-law among elite groups that will later be extended more broadly to the masses, so that elite privileges will become universal rights.

In none of these countries will it be possible to immediately transition into on Open Access Order as opposed to expanding the LAO, while "to try to go straight from revolution to an open access order has never worked and has often led to disruption and more fragility. Even the task of creating a workable limited access order will not be easy -- as we see in the examples of Afghanistan, Iraq and Democratic Republic of Congo" (Webb 2011). Under Col.

Kadaffy, Libya played a very active part in the African Union, although since his recent overthrow and execution the policy of the AU toward the new governments in North Africa remains uncertain and in a state of transition. Dr. Jean Ping, Chairperson of the African Union, accepted the farewell of Libya's Permanent Representative Ambassador Ali Abdallah Awidan on October 26, 2011.

Ping praised him for "his laudable work in promoting the goals and ideals of the African Union" and reiterated "the continued commitment of the AU to support the Libyan people and work with the new authorities towards genuine national reconciliation and the achievement of an inclusive transition leading to the establishment of a new democratic dispensation" (African Union Press Release, October 26, 2011).

In addition, the AU announced that it would soon be opening a Liaison Office in Tripoli in accordance with a decision of the Peace and Security Council on October 20th. When the new Libyan constitution is written and elections are held, the AU will very likely send an observer mission there as it did to Tunisia, the first North African nation to hold post-revolutionary elections. These were conducted peacefully and with a high voter turnout on October 23, 2011, with no major complaints about fraud or lack of transparency.

Four million Tunisians were registered to vote and over 7,000 polling stations opened, The AU observer mission was headed by H.E Ahmed Sid'Ahmed, former foreign minister of Mauritania and included "personalities representing the AU Member States, the AU Commission, officials of national electoral bodies and members of the African Civil Society" (African Union Press Release, October 20, 2011).

Global institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization will be continual to be influential in North Africa and the Middle East, although serious questions remain about how developing countries still lack any real power in these organizations. In the recent economic crisis, which did so much to spark the Arab Spring revolutions, the G-7 has been broadened more fully into the G-20 framework, including more active participation by developing nations like Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa.

In the past, G-20 decisions and policies differed little from those of the Western G-8 core, although this has been changing to some degree in recent years with the increasing "recognition of the shift in global economic power" and "concern about the anachronistic power balance in existing institutions of global economic governance" (Woods 2010). Growing protectionist sentiment in the Western economies could certainly prove damaging to the interests of non-oil exporting Middle East and North African countries like Egypt.

During the great crisis of 2008-10, however, a consensus existed on the need to "collectively to agree to stimulate domestic demand, and not to use protectionism. Without the cooperation of China, India, Brazil and others, the G7 countries could have found themselves agreeing to row against a tide which would overwhelm them" (Woods 2010). They also agreed to reform and.