Marketing
The following are estimates using the NPV calculator:
Expected Commercial Value (NPV)
$11,099,275
Probability of Commercial Success
Probability of Technical Success
Discount Rate
Cashflows
FY13
FY
Development Costs
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
Launch and Marketing Costs
$1,200,000
Forecasted Units Sold
$5,200
Forecasted Revenue (Unit Sales Price x Units Sold )
$2,080,000
Discounted Cashflows (10-Year)
Calculated
NPV Income
$22,200,816
NPV Development Costs
$3,720,341
NPV Launch and Marketing Costs
$2,941,037
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
$400,000
$200,000
$200,000
$200,000
$100,000
$800,000
$300,000
$300,000
$300,000
$150,000
$9,000
$11,000
$10,000
$8,600
$7,400
$3,600,000
$4,400,000
$4,000,000
$3,440,000
$2,960,000
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
$100,000
$50,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$100,000
$6,600
$5,800
$5,200
$4,800
$2,640,000
$2,320,000
$2,080,000
$1,920,000
1b.
The probability commercial success was an assumed input, a constant. It was 0.8. This figure went into the Expected Commercial Value calculation, which was the NPV multiplied by the probability of technical success and the probability of commercial success. The NPV and ECV calculations do not have the power to derive a new probability of commercial success.
The NPV, including the probability of commercial success, is $11.099 million. If the current assumptions about...
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