Open Source Intelligence Estimate

Intelligence The Kingdom of Bahrain, a small Arab state located on the Persian Gulf, is an oil-rich constitutional monarchy. The country has generally been an ally of the United States, but has internal issues that could compromise its security. Less than half of Bahrain's population are native Bahraini, lending the country a more diverse ethnic mix than might be expected. According to the CIA, 70.3% of the population is Muslim. A plurality of these, including the ruling family, are Sunni, but the country also has a significant Shia minority (CIA, 2015).

Internal Ethnic Issues Non-Bahrainis, despite making up the majority of the population in the country, have few rights and typically do not play a political role in the country. Bahrain's Muslim population is divided among the ruling minority Sunni and majority Shia, and there has been some friction in the past as the result of internal conflict between these two groups (CIA, 2015). During the Arab Spring, Bahrain was a conflict hot spot, in particular as the Shia majority protested against the government, seeking greater rights.

The internal political situation is not strictly sectarian, however, a fact that has allowed it to remain primarily domestic, without broader international terror dimensions (Akbari & Stern, 2012). Terrorism There is increasing evidence of late that Bahrain is at least sympathetic to terrorist causes. There is evidence, for example, of a link between Bahrain's security services and ISIS, and at least 100 Bahrainis have left the country to join the Islamic State.

Support for extremist groups among Bahrainis has been increasing, and it has been reported that there is a problem in the country with Salafi radicalization (Shehabi, 2014). Publicly, the country is a staunch supporter of the Gulf Cooperation Council's anti-IS efforts (Ibid), and the country offered amnesty for IS fighters who wished to return, rather than cracking down on them. So there is reason to suspect that Bahrain at the very least sympathizes with IS.

There is no hard evidence linking the country's government to financing IS or other terror activities, however. Relations with the U.S. Potential links with IS notwithstanding, Bahrain is generally viewed as a friendly country to the U.S. The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is headquartered at Manama, making Bahrain a key ally in the region. The close relationship between Bahrain and the U.S.

is driven by mutual concern about Iran's potential influence, especially a concern to the Bahraini government, which rules over a Shia majority (Wagner & Cafiero, 2014). Bahrain has stood with the U.S. against IS, though it tacit allowances for Islamic extremism raise questions about its commitment to anti-IS campaigns, beyond keeping IS out of its own borders. Final Estimate and Conclusion The Kingdom of Bahrain remains key to U.S. interests in the Middle East, in particular for its role in hosting the Fifth Fleet and in opposing Iran.

Its internal political problems create embarrassment for the U.S., but should not have.