Population control and political stability: evidence from China and Europe

Overpopulation and Instability: Drawing Connections and Conclusions

The link between overpopulation and political and governmental instability can be proven though multiple case studies. For the past half century, many political scientists have drawn a connection between a nation's ability to control the size of their population and the resources it needs in order to survive. Through an exploration of the causes of political instability, it is possible to clarify this link, and to show that in order for a nation to remain stable and successful politically and otherwise, it needs to be able to control its population growth. There are quite a few areas in the world right now that are primed for political crisis, given the fact that overpopulation crises and resource struggles will likely emerge in the near future. Many political scientists disagree that population has anything to do with political or even regional stability, but it is quite easy to prove otherwise. Certainly there are some examples where instability has created fertile grounds for overpopulation, but these examples are often cherry-picked to help support a one-sided argument.

The notion that all countries around the world function outside of the issue of resource depletion relative to overpopulation is false. There are strong connections between a country's available resources, its position in the world political spectrum, the power that the country has to influence other countries in the region, and that country's population control efforts. The implications for out of control population growth, or lack of growth are quite dire, as evidenced by the out of control populations of Somalia in contrast to the limited population growth of many European nations. The viewpoint that many political scientists and economists take relative to a positive correlation between overpopulation and political instability makes sense in many ways. Since this correlation can been seen, it is imperative that population control take place in order to limit the possibility of widespread resource depletion and related conflict.

Background

The Chinese model of population control goes back many decades. The government realized that the country's population was beginning to spiral out of control and it created many incentives for parents to have only one child. As the Chinese economy grew and began to become modernized around the 1950's and 1960's, the issue of overpopulation was brought to the foreground as the nation strained to develop technologically (Zhao, 1986, pp. 20). A country cannot effectively modernize itself when its workforce is made up of unskilled laborers and farmers. If this population segment of China were allowed to grow unchecked, there could have perhaps even been a political coup brought on by the dwindling economic resources of the nation, eventually created by out of control population growth. The Communists in China smartly realized that population control was necessary to both modernize the country as well as keep themselves in power. The scenario in China was very similar to that of Europe's only one hundred years prior.

As Western European nations were beginning to modernize economically and politically in the 18th and 19th centuries, there was an internal push for skilled labor (Zhao, 1986, pp. 24). That is to say that more and more people who were once producing agricultural and sustenance goods were going to school to learn a skill or trade. This forced more rural households to engage in nonagricultural activities and helped to create more complex forms of economic and industrial organization, paving the way for better political relations with neighboring countries as well as increased importation of goods and ideas. Once economic modernization took place, political modernization followed. A democratic political model was adopted in these nations and the concern for overpopulation began to be dealt with in a more direct fashion. Parents no longer needed a small army of children to help meet labor demands on the farm or at home. The French were so adept at stressing the importance of population control in relation to depletion of critical resources that the French population as a whole is aging, and has had a negative growth rate for some time now (Zhao, 1986, pp. 29). This slowing of population growth rate is a pattern in many democracies around the world, as the inverse is true of many undeveloped, turmoil stricken nations around the globe.

The connection between overpopulation and political instability is no clearer than in nations such as Somalia and other sub-Saharan African nations. Their unemployment and crime rates are sky high (Osborne, 2002, pp. 3) and the power vacuums that are created by the political and economic infighting are outwardly apparent. These countries have no official population control programs or framework, and the countries are unable to modernize both politically and economically due to the fact that they have not been able to develop as rapidly or successfully as other nations. Certainly outside factors have come into play for many of these countries, but the idea that Somalia, a failed state, and a country with extremely limited resources, has not been adversely affected by the lack of population planning and control is absolutely absurd.

Nearly 500,000 people face starvation on a daily basis in Somalia, a country with very few professionals and a very underdeveloped economy (Osborne, 2002, pp. 16). The country has been plagued by almost constant civil war and political disputes over the past few decades, much of which is caused by a booming population and lack of resources leading to internal strife and struggle. If the country were allowed to develop economically and politically, it may be able to compensate for its lack of raw materials and goods by offering skilled labor and technologies to other more developed economies (Osborne, 2002, pp. 18). India has been slowly modernizing its economy in the midst of one of the largest per country population in the world. It has used its labor resources as a springboard for economic growth and diversification, and serves as a model for countries like Somalia, where population growth is out of control, but a largely untapped labor pool exists. Overpopulation has also put Somalia in harms way politically, and until this problem can be addressed, the country will continue to be a failed state in desperate need of outside aid and resources.

The volatility of places like Somalia reflects this dire need for outside aid and foreign resources. Failed states are breeding grounds for terrorist forces and other negative political and economic influences. The fact that Somalia is in such a state of despair not only adversely affects the Somali people directly, but also every other nation outside of its borders. Somali pirates hijack ships out of economic desperation, affecting the worldwide flow of goods and resources between developed nations. This is but one example for the need to develop countries like Somalia, and come up with solutions to its unemployment and social disrepair through modernized economic development and population control. Overpopulation is both a product and cause of political, economic, and educational stability. There are no perfect examples, but the facts and logic used to justify this idea are quite convincing. Every industrialized nation in the world has a stake in making sure that regional and state instability is minimized for security and humanitarian reasons.

Position 2 Analysis: Viewpoint #2: Overpopulation Does Not Directly Create Instability

According to researcher and economist Robert J. Barro, there exists an indirect positive link between positive population growth and political stability. He argues that the countries with the highest growth rates in GDP have historically been those with the largest population growth and therefore largest pools of human labor capital (Barro, 1991, pp. 120). He also argues that countries with high birth rates also tend to have higher rates of infant mortality and lower fertility rates (Barro, 1991, pp. 119). When these arguments are combined they paint a very different picture of the relationship between political stability and population growth. The indirect occurrence of GDP growth through population growth is a key argument against providing foreign aid and direction to countries with high population growth rates like Somalia or even India. In India's case, the growth rate has largely gone unchecked for decades yet the country's GDP growth has been steadily outpacing the industrialized western nations for the same amount of time. The connection between political instability and population growth is non-existent according to Barro, and can be attributed to other factors such as the country's existing political environment or perhaps even colonial pressures that once existed inside their borders (Barro, 1991, pp. 120). A person arguing in favor of the viewpoint that overpopulation is not a cause of political instability would likely use India's recent economic success as proof that a huge population is not necessarily indicative of political or economic strife.

In examining countries like Argentina and Japan, the authors of the 1996 article entitled, "Political Instability and Economic Growth" (Alesina; Ozler; Roubini; and Swagel, 1996, pp. 191.) make the connection between economic growth rates and political stability. Since it is nearly impossible to have high economic growth rates without first having political stability, from which population growth is strictly dealt with, the connection between these seemingly unrelated factors is clearly drawn. Argentina, which once had one of the highest per-capita income rates in the world, fell into one political struggle after another, and has since fallen far from the top of list of highest per-capita and highest GDP producers in the world. Conversely, Japan, which was one of the poorest nations in 1960, has enjoyed more political stability than Argentina, and has since experienced one of the fastest growth rates of any notion on the planet (Alesina; Ozler; Roubini; and Swagel, 1996, pp. 194). A connection in population growth can be made as well in these two cases.

Argentina's population growth has run out of control since the 1960's, in the midst of multiple coups and government overthrows. Japan's population has stabilized and the country has recently experienced negative population growth rates (Alesina; Ozler; Roubini; and Swagel, 1996, pp. 199). Here too is evidence that population growth is related to political instability, and not the other way around. Poor economic growth is also often caused by political instability, but potential economic growth is highest in countries with large populations that can be put to work producing goods and services that are the engines of economic and GDP growth. The picture being painted is a catch-22. Countries need relatively large population growth and political stability to become economically successful, but countries that already suffer from lack of political instability seemingly all have unchecked population growth in the first place, suggesting no direct link between population growth and political instability. Instead, there likely is a link between economic growth and stability and political stability.

To further prove the point that the link between overpopulation and political instability is a myth, it is quite useful to examine evidence from Jim Peron's studies in overpopulation and failed states. Peron's book, Exploding Population Myths (2006) argues that overpopulation is not the problem that leads to a failed state or to political instability. He feels that the state itself leads to the overpopulation problem, by means of corrupt or imperfect practices (Peron, 2006). Mr. Peron is certainly arguing from the side of limited government, but the idea that the overpopulation comes from a failed state is argued as false in his book. This argument posits that the institution itself is failing the population, and not the other way around. Depending on which country is used to lend credence to this theory, there are numerous reasons why the failed state comes before overpopulation. Mr. Peron uses China as an example, showing that overpopulation does not necessarily lead to a failed state. The Chinese have successfully learned to deal with over population through the use of a forceful government and methods of limiting parents to one child. The argument that famine is a product of overpopulation is overturned by Peron's book (2006) as well, as he argues that as populations increase, technology advances more rapidly, and the populations are able to cope with less space to grow their food stuffs. It is through the development of technology that famine via overpopulation, as it is traditionally defined, can be overcome. Certainly there are famines going on currently, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, but the world's ability to produce food and energy resources is being boosted by technological advances.

According to those who side with this viewpoint, the future is not as bleak as some scholars and political scientists would want people to believe. The pace of technological development would keep up with rising demand for resources and the world would begin to understand that political instability is not a product of overpopulation, instead being caused by big, worldwide government intervention, like the UN efforts to provide resources and aid to needy nations and regions. These people want to believe that there is a concerted effort by mainstream scholars and media to blow the overpopulation problem out of proportion. The future, according to these people, is much rosier and hopeful than previously thought, relative to overpopulation and political instability in particular regions.

Synthesis and Implications

The argument that political instability comes directly from overpopulation is not completely accurate. Certainly the least industrialized countries have the least complex economies and are therefore more prone to political instability via a lack of complex representative government. But the direct connection between these two factors remains to be seen. In the case of Somalia, a nation that has been a dysfunctional failed state for decades, the unchecked population growth is certainly impeding economic and political development and is a product of a decentralized political and educational structure, but the political strife the country has experienced has not been directly linked to issues with overpopulation. The overpopulation is a symptom of other failed political and educational organs, and not the root cause of the instability in the first place. This does not mean however that overpopulation does no exacerbate the potential for political instability. Any time there is a large group of people who are unemployed or unhappy with their own condition, there will also exist political and social turmoil (Schmuck and Shultz, 2002). This turmoil is often the catalyst for social upheaval and political instability, and is easily diluted through counter-overpopulation efforts.

Certainly there is argument that supporting failed states is advantageous for industrialized nations, as these failed economics and political structures often lead to further regional and global instability. The political instability that currently exists in the nations of Afghanistan and Sudan have given rise to new terrorist threats and have provided a fertile breeding ground for terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda. It is in every nation's interest to help support nations which have fallen into political instability and one of the best ways to help them is by controlling overpopulation. In countries that have huge numbers of people, it is easier for more extreme ideologies to take hold due to the fact that the country's economic structure is weak and simple, and that the overpopulation often leads to mass feelings of resentment toward the political and social structure that has brought instability in the first place. This has been proven in Vietnam and Burma as well as Somalia and other sub-Saharan African states.

The idea that overpopulation is a myth however, doesn't hold water. Certainly there have been many advances in the technology that the world has to grow larger amounts of food more efficiently, but there still exist severe resource shortages in some parts of the world. The rate at which food can be grown has been shown to be non-linear, but that doesn't mean that industrialized countries around the world should turn a blind eye to the effects of overpopulation (Ratner, 2004, pp. 56). It is harder to have a successful representative democracy in an overpopulated state, and Peron's argument that China has successfully circumnavigated the perils associated with overpopulation through an authoritative government shows that his own theory is fatally flawed. If a government has to be borderline dictatorial in order to achieve order and rule in an overpopulated country, then there are some very negative results from overpopulation. Indirectly, Peron is arguing that overpopulation (which he disputes even exists on any scale at all in the world) needs to be controlled with big government, but that big and powerful government authority is an inherently negative attribute that leads to overpopulation through political and economic instability. In this way, his article defeats its own logical argument.

Personally, I find both approaches have some valid points, but I align my own view of the overpopulation and political instability problem with the first viewpoint, that there is a direct and provable link between overpopulation and political instability. I believe it is in every nation's best interest to combat the problem of overpopulation, not only because of the limited amount of resources that many nations and regions posses, but because overpopulation itself is a humanitarian issue, and is at the heart of so much conflict worldwide, both currently and historically. Often the fertility and infant mortality rates are higher in overpopulated countries and regions, but this is not good news to be celebrated, as some would see it. These high mortality rates are a scourge upon the further development and peaceful unification of the globe both culturally and economically. Instead of spending so much time and energy trying to debunk the idea that there even is an overpopulation problem in many failed and politically instable countries and regions, why not use that energy to begin to solve this global problem that affects everyone? I certainly understand the need for debate, but in my opinion, there is far more logical evidence to support the viewpoint that overpopulation is a major catalyst for political, economic, and educational instability.