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Risk-Free
Government bonds are called risk-free because they will be paid back. The underlying assumption is that the U.S. Treasury can always print more money in order to finance the payback of these bonds. That does not by any means make the bonds truly risk-free, but they are guaranteed to return face value. There are actually a few different ways in which government bonds are risky.
A recent change to the more orthodox view of government bond risk is that U.S. government bonds were downgraded in 2011, something that had never happened previously. This has not changed the market view of U.S. government paper, but it does imply that, according to one rating agency at least, the bonds of some other governments are less risky than the bonds of the U.S. government. That said, the risk conditions of U.S. bonds have not changed. They are still considered risk free because the Treasury will still print money...
The longer the time frame, the greater the risk of something catastrophic happening to allow the possibility of default. Given this, bonds with longer terms to maturity carry slightly higher interest rates to compensate for the risk represented by time. In addition, longer-term government paper also bears interest rate risk, that is the risk that interest rates will change in the interim, devaluing the bond if sold before maturity.
The risk of default in U.S. government bonds, aside from political shenanigans like the debt ceiling debacle in the summer of 2011, lies largely with the federal budget. This is known as sovereign risk. The sovereign…
The risk of default in U.S. government bonds, aside from political shenanigans like the debt ceiling debacle in the summer of 2011, lies largely with the federal budget. This is known as sovereign risk. The sovereign risk of the United States, and several other developed nations, is very low. With other countries, however, there are genuine budget issues that make default a possibility. In the Eurozone, for example, nations like Greece are struggling to meet their debt payments. With Greece, there is no ability for the government to print more money in order to cover its obligations, and that increases the sovereign risk. Nations that have their own currencies do not have this type of risk, but still have sovereign risk to the extent that they could find themselves one day without enough cash to pay their obligations.
It should be noted that part of the reason that government bonds give a return is not related as much to risk as it is to providing the incentive to invest. Governments issue debt because they need to raise funds. If there was no return given on that debt, nobody would invest. Therefore, there must be some sort of return offered, in order to entice investors. The rate is typically set in regard to the opportunity cost of capital, and the market yield will reflect the market's views about the sovereign risk associated with debt.
Thus, risk free securities are not truly risk free. There is the risk of default, although this risk is very minor. There is the risk as well that the value of the investment will not be much. In the event of hyperinflation, for example, the value of the money might be very low. However, the value will always be paid out because the Treasury can print that money. The interest rate reflects, in addition to an enticement to invest, the combined risk of default and the risk associated with expected future interest rate moves.
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