China's Strategic Intentions and U.S. Security Concerns

Introduction: Rising U.S.-China Tensions

On December 22, 2007, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice issued an unusually sharp rebuke to the Taiwanese government, and senior Bush administration officials criticized both China and Taiwan for "unnecessarily inflaming tensions between each other and with the United States" (Shanker and Cooper, 2007). They were addressing China's cancellation of and refusal to permit port visits by American warships, reportedly because Defense Secretary Robert Gates had not informed Beijing of planned arms sales to Taiwan. The result was heightened tensions and a closely watched Taiwanese referendum issue that threatened to further damage relations between the United States and China.

According to Representative Floyd D. Spence of South Carolina, then Chairman of the House Committee on Armed Services, who testified before the Committee in June 2000, China appeared to be becoming the dominant power in Asia. Spence believed that China's political policies and goals might not be as benign as they appeared. He argued that America's failure to communicate its interests in the Asia-Pacific region — and its commitment to defending those interests — had allowed a rising assertiveness in Chinese policy to take hold, undermining the U.S.-China partnership and creating a risk of direct confrontation.

China's Military Structure and Territorial Claims

According to the Defense Intelligence Journal, China's military branches consist of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) — including ground forces, navy marines, and naval aviation — the Air Force, and the Second Artillery Corps (strategic missile force); the People's Armed Police (PAP); and the Reserve and Militia Forces (Manthrope, 2001). In China, males between 18 and 22 years of age are eligible for selective compulsory military service, serving for 24 months. There is no minimum age requirement for voluntary service, since all officers are volunteers. Women who are high school graduates may be drafted at ages 18–19 for specific military roles. As of 2005 estimates, the eligible military-age population was approximately 342,340,272 males and 324,701,244 females.

In 2005, China drafted principles to continue discussions on all boundary disputes, security matters, and foreign policy, as well as to consolidate existing boundary agreements. China asserts dominance over the Spratly Islands, with competing claims from Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and possibly Brunei. The South China Sea has become a persistent source of tension between China and neighboring countries, as well as with more distant nations, including disputes over whether the United States has access to regional ports.

Economic Growth and Energy Policy

Twenty-five years ago, China operated a centrally planned economy that was closed to international trade. Since transitioning to a market-oriented global economy, China has become a major player in world economics, recording a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978 and rising to become one of the world's largest economies, second only to the United States. However, a significant gap exists between the poor interior provinces and the wealthier coastal regions, producing a large disparity in per capita income. As a result, China faces substantial labor challenges, widespread corruption and economic crime, and the ongoing struggle to control environmental pollution and social unrest related to rapid industrialization.

China's energy program carries significant global environmental implications. The construction of numerous hydroelectric dams to expand power capacity was nearing completion at the time of this writing. The Five-Year Program launched in 2006 called for a 20% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP by 2010 and projected an estimated 45% increase in overall GDP by the same year. Conserving energy and resources while protecting the environment was stated as a central goal, though the specific government mechanisms for achieving these targets remained unclear.

Conclusion: Toward a New Cold War?

It appears as if the growing differences in economic and political policies between the United States and China have increased watchfulness and suspicion on the part of both major powers, leading to the possibility of another Cold War — this time between the United States and a newly assertive communist China. Whether through military modernization, territorial disputes, energy competition, or the unresolved question of Taiwan, the structural tensions identified by analysts such as Spence, Saunders, and Wang suggest that managing the U.S.-China relationship will remain one of the defining strategic challenges of the coming decades.

References

Burns, Alicia. "Asia-Russia: China's One Child Policy." Digital Freedom Network, 11 Oct. 2004.

Clark, Matthew. "China a Security Threat to U.S." The Christian Science Monitor, 28 Jun. 2005.

Manthrope, William H. J., Jr., Ed. & Pub. Defense Intelligence Journal, Volume 10, No. 1, Winter 2001.

Saunders, Phillip C. Chinese Views of Its Military Modernization. Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2000.

Shanker, Tom, and Helene Cooper. "China and Taiwan Draw Fire From Washington." The New York Times, 22 Dec. 2007, p. 1.

U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Armed Services, 106th Congress, Second Session. China's Strategic Intentions and Goals, Hearing on 21 Jun. 2000. H.A.S.C. No. 105-53.

Wang, Fei-Ling. China's Self-Image and Strategic Intentions: National Confidence and Political Insecurity. Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA. Sponsored by Duke University.