Sino-U.S. Relations in the Post-Cold War Era

Introduction

Today, China and the United States are inextricably linked in the modern world, and some observers maintain that any disagreements that emerge between the two countries are relatively insignificant and will not adversely affect their growing economic and political relationship. By contrast, other international analysts argue that recent trends in China's economic and military growth will inevitably result in armed conflict between these two superpowers. To determine the facts, this paper examines the accuracy of these respective viewpoints concerning the status of Sino-U.S. relations in the post-Cold War era, followed by a summary of the research and important findings in the conclusion.

China's Development in the 20th Century

The 20th century was a turbulent one for China, marred by major famines, foreign occupation, and civil unrest.¹ Despite these problems and the enormous challenges of achieving self-sufficiency in food production, the country emerged in the latter part of the century as a burgeoning economic juggernaut.² Indeed, China's economy has grown so rapidly that analysts with the International Monetary Fund projected it would outpace the United States to become the world's largest economy.³ Likewise, China has assumed a global leadership position in many areas of manufacturing, including steel, electronics, and textiles production.⁴ These trends indicate that China will soon replace the United States as the world's leading superpower — economically rather than militarily, at least for the foreseeable future.⁵

These predictions are further supported by other trends, including the rapid growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and purchasing power parity (PPP), as well as its sustained economic growth, which averaged 10% a year since 2013 — the fastest rate in the developed world.⁶ Indeed, several years of sustained trade surpluses with the United States resulted in China accumulating a $4 trillion financial reserve of hard currency assets.⁷ Other indications of China's growing hegemony relative to the United States include its increased exports and imports, ranking it second only after the United States. While the United States remains the global leader in some areas, China is quickly overtaking it in others, such as manufacturing output. Moreover, as a result of new free trade agreements with countries such as Pakistan and Switzerland, the domestic market in China has also expanded rapidly in recent years.⁸ Taken together, these trends underscore the dynamic nature of Sino-U.S. relations in the post-Cold War era.

Overview of U.S.-Sino Relations in the Post-Cold War Era

While U.S.-Sino relations have been challenged by disagreements over human rights and other major areas of contention since the 1990s, China has increasingly engaged the international community as a member of international organizations and adopted a more pragmatic view toward reconciling its differences with the United States. The country's leadership recognizes the centrality of this relationship to achieving their economic and political goals.⁹ Nevertheless, Clover, Dyer, and Ma emphasize that "almost nowhere else do you see such a strategic rivalry that now exists between China and the U.S."¹⁰ This strategic rivalry has translated into increasingly cooperative initiatives on the one hand and growing areas of contention on the other. For example, David Lampton, director of China studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, argues that "our relations with China have been, and will remain for the foreseeable future, a complex combination of cooperation and contention."¹¹

The Sino-U.S. strategic rivalry has been manifested in a number of areas, most especially in security, due in large part to the fundamentally different worldviews held by both sides. Each distrusts the motives of the other while recognizing the mutual benefits that expanded cooperation can bring. In this regard, Lampton adds that "since 1991, China and the United States have not really been able to cooperate very significantly in the security area."¹² Despite this lack of security cooperation, the growing interdependence of the Chinese and American economies has forced policymakers in both countries to downplay security issues in favor of further strengthening economic ties.¹³ Nevertheless, some major disagreements remain firmly in place and will inevitably affect these relations, as discussed further below.

Major Disagreements and Tensions Between China and the U.S.

Despite their increasing economic ties, there have been significant sources of dispute between the United States and China during the post-Cold War era, including most especially human rights and the status of Taiwan.¹⁴ In addition, contentious territorial claims in the South China Sea have alarmed political leaders in many regional countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam.

Despite these disagreements and rising tensions, some authorities maintain that the increasing importance of economic and political ties between China and the United States means that the two countries will be compelled to resolve these issues peacefully, as it is in their own best interest. For instance, Glaser reports that "U.S.-China relations are a complicated mix of positive and negative elements, competition and cooperation. Conflict between the U.S. and China is not inevitable."¹⁵ Although conflict may not be inevitable, it remains possible unless and until the two countries resolve the major areas of contention between them.

Trade and Currency

Because of China's rapid economic development, its growing export of goods and resources, and the enormous amount of U.S. debt it holds, the Chinese currency has grown stronger. Americans view this change as a potential threat to the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and the Bretton Woods system, which provided for "fixed but adjustable" exchange rates.¹⁶ One international analyst maintains that "we may be in a 'New Bretton Woods Era' in the sense that China and other Asian countries peg their currencies to the dollar as a key reserve currency."¹⁷ The development of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has also introduced challenges to the leadership position that the United States held among international financial institutions during the second half of the 20th century. Underlying these surface disagreements is China's ambition to become the world's superpower and America's effort to retain its position as the superpower in a unipolar world.¹⁸

Human Rights and Democracy

The United States and its allies have accused China of violating human rights and of maintaining a communist government. According to leaked secret files, however, the U.S. government has also been implicated in human rights violations, including surveillance, wire-tapping, and secret detention facilities. Some analysts maintain that continuing economic and political engagement with China will help resolve these human rights issues over time.¹⁹

Climate

China's spectacular economic growth has not occurred without a corresponding adverse effect on its environment, and the process has been characterized by increased carbon emissions and environmentally destructive business practices. To date, China has been reluctant to formally commit to international carbon emission reduction standards, though the country has taken some steps to reduce pollution domestically.²⁰

Conclusion

The research showed that the assertion that disagreements between China and the United States are nothing more than superficial is accurate only to a limited extent. In some cases, these disagreements are highly complex and longstanding, and will require more than superficial steps to resolve. The research also showed that, despite these disagreements, both countries share mutual interests in promoting further economic ties — interests that many analysts believe will contribute to the resolution of these disagreements in the future. In the final analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that China will remain at the top of the list of countries that will redefine the unipolar world that emerged at the end of the 20th century. The 21st century will likely fulfill its predicted destiny as the Century of Asia, with China at the helm.

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