Threat and Vulnerability Assessment: NYC and NJ Locations
This paper conducts a security vulnerability and threat assessment of three locations in and near New York City: the Kuehne Chemical plant in South Kearny, New Jersey; the United Nations Headquarters in Midtown Manhattan; and Carnegie Hall. Each site is evaluated using established homeland security frameworks, including Facility Characterization Matrices, Risk Management Plans, and Levels of Likelihood of Attack. The paper prioritizes the three locations by security risk, concluding that the Kuehne Chemical plant poses the greatest danger due to its catastrophic worst-case scenario potential affecting up to 12 million people, followed by the United Nations Headquarters and Carnegie Hall, both of which are vulnerable primarily as high-profile public landmarks.
- Introduction and Site Prioritization: Three NYC-area sites ranked by security priority
- Kuehne Chemical Plant: Chemical facility risk, chlorine gas threat analysis
- Attributes of Manhattan and New York City: Population density and counter-terrorism context
- United Nations Headquarters: UN complex vulnerabilities and threat likelihood
- Carnegie Hall: Historic venue threats and security measures
- Conclusion and Security Prioritization Summary: Final ranking and comparative risk summary
✍️ How to write this paper — guide, tools & examples ▾
What makes this paper effective
- Applies concrete DHS frameworks — including Facility Characterization Matrices, threshold quantities, and Levels of Likelihood of Attack — to real-world sites, grounding the analysis in official methodology rather than general observation.
- Provides a clear, reasoned hierarchy of security priorities from the outset, then supports each ranking with site-specific evidence, giving the paper strong argumentative coherence.
- Balances quantitative data (population density figures, seating capacities, chemical quantities) with qualitative threat analysis, demonstrating the multi-dimensional nature of security assessment.
Key academic technique demonstrated
The paper demonstrates applied risk analysis by consistently using a three-part framework — threat type, severity level, and likelihood of attack — across all three sites. This parallel structure allows direct comparison between sites and shows how the same analytical methodology can yield meaningfully different conclusions depending on site characteristics.
Structure breakdown
The paper opens with an executive-style introduction that states the sites and their priority ranking upfront. Each subsequent section addresses one location in order of security priority, applying the same analytical categories before moving to contextual material on Manhattan. The paper implicitly closes by having established its prioritization through accumulated evidence rather than a formal conclusion section, a structure common in applied security assessments.
Introduction and Site Prioritization
Three locations in and near New York City are assessed for vulnerabilities and threats, and then prioritized according to security considerations and analysis. The Kuehne Chemical plant in South Kearny, New Jersey, is the only one of the three selected locations that is inherently a risk to citizens. The other two selected locations — Carnegie Hall and the United Nations headquarters — are vulnerable to threats and at risk primarily because they are notable Manhattan landmarks that frequently contain large assemblages of people.
Of the three locations, the Kuehne Chemical plant is the highest security priority due to the worst-case scenario for the site as estimated by the Department of Homeland Security, and as defined in their Risk Management Plan submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency. The United Nations Headquarters is the second security priority, primarily because so many other opportunities to threaten and attack UN personnel exist around the globe. Carnegie Hall, a world-class destination performance venue located just two short blocks from Central Park South in Manhattan, is the third security priority in this selection of locations.
Kuehne Chemical Plant
Twenty-one minutes, or 8.1 miles, via I-78 West from New York City is a facility known as the Kuehne Chemical plant. The chemical facility (CF) is located in South Kearny, New Jersey. The Department of Homeland Security has identified the Kuehne Chemical plant as high risk, primarily because roughly two million pounds of chlorine gas is stored on the site.
The Kuehne Chemical plant ranks as a CF that should undergo a vulnerability assessment (VA), since the total on-site inventory of chlorine gas is at or greater than the threshold quantities (TQs) for a chemical covered by federal regulation 40 CFR 68.130. Federal regulation 40 CFR 68.130 lists Extremely Hazardous Substances (EHS) as reported to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The basis for listing chlorine gas on the EHS list is twofold: (a) it was mandated for listing by Congress, and (b) it is on the EHS list because it has a vapor pressure of 10 mmHg or greater. The threshold quantity for chlorine gas is 2,500 pounds; the total on-site inventory of chlorine gas at Kuehne Chemical is excessively beyond what is required to trigger a vulnerability assessment.
The Risk Management Plan (RMP) Rule is a provision of amendments to the 1990 Clean Air Act that implements Section 112(r). RMPs are required to be re-submitted to the EPA every five years. The Risk Management Plan submitted to the EPA by Kuehne Chemical plant defined a worst-case scenario classification for the site. According to a 2003 GAO report, the Kuehne Chemical plant is one of 123 chemical facilities with worst-case scenario ratings indicating that an accident could expose over one million people (GAO, 2003, p. 10). Officials have estimated the potential number of people who would be affected by the worst-case scenario at 12 million, and that event could occur from "the release of just one full rail car of chlorine gas" (Radford, 2010).
The use of a Facility Characterization Matrix (FCM) to summarize the security factors for the Kuehne Chemical plant yields the following assessment. Note that this application of the FCM is for on-site chemical storage and not for any particular processing activity that uses chemicals, which is the actual intent of the FCM.
The severity level for the Kuehne Chemical plant is S1, defined as follows: potential for any of the following resulting from a chemical release, detonation, or explosion — worker fatalities, public fatalities, extensive property damage, facility disabled for more than one month, major environmental impacts, or evacuation of neighboring residents.
Site-specific threat types include: terrorist outsider, criminal, extremist, insider, and vandal. The Level of Likelihood of Attack (LA) is LA3, meaning a threat exists, is capable, and has intent or history, but has not targeted the facility. The third element of this level — "has not targeted the facility" — actually exists at an unknown level. Given the considerable publicity about the vulnerability of the CF and the potential scope of destruction, the possibility of a site-specific threat is presumed to be high.
Attributes of Manhattan and New York City
The following context is relevant to assessing the vulnerability of Carnegie Hall and the United Nations headquarters. New York City proper and Manhattan are located in Counter Terrorism Zone 1 (CTZ1). Manhattan is located in New York County, the most densely populated county in the United States. The 2013 Census estimated the population of New York County at 1,626,159 people across an area of approximately 22.96 square miles, translating into a density of 70,826 people per square mile. During weekdays, business activity drives a commuter influx that pushes the total population in the area to over 3.9 million people, resulting in a density of approximately 170,000 people per square mile. Although Manhattan is the smallest of New York City's five boroughs in land area, it has the third-largest population among the boroughs — just after Brooklyn and Queens. Each year, more than 50 million people are estimated to visit New York City.
Conclusion and Security Prioritization Summary
Of the three assessed locations, the Kuehne Chemical plant carries the highest security priority given its worst-case scenario potential to expose up to 12 million people to chlorine gas — a hazard that places it in a category of risk that far exceeds that of the other two sites. The United Nations Headquarters ranks second, reflecting both its status as a high-profile international target and the documented history of attacks on UN personnel worldwide. Carnegie Hall, while a beloved and historically significant landmark with substantial public capacity, ranks third, as it lacks a documented history of targeted threats and presents a lower likelihood of attack relative to the other two sites. Together, these three locations illustrate how vulnerability assessments must account for both inherent physical hazards and the symbolic or political significance of a site when determining security priorities.
References
Radford, P. (2010, June 22). New Jersey chemical plant puts 12 million at risk, threatens most lives in New York City. Huffington Post. Retrieved from
Convention on the Safety of United Nations and Associated Personnel. (1994, December 9). Office of Legal Affairs, Codification Division, United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/law/cod/safety.htm
A method to assess the vulnerability of U.S. chemical facilities. (2002, November). U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, National Institute of Justice. Retrieved from https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/195171.pdf
Vulnerability assessment methodologies report, Phase I, final report. (2003, July). U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office for Domestic Preparedness. Retrieved from
New York State Homeland Security Strategy. (2014). Retrieved from
Voluntary initiatives are under way at chemical facilities but the extent of security preparedness is unknown. (2003, March). United States General Accounting Office, Homeland Security. [Report GAO-03-439 to Congressional Requesters.] Retrieved from
Create your account
Always verify citation format against your institution’s current style guide requirements.