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Many divergent global forecasts relating to the Intelligence Community have been fronted where relative harmony dominates market economies and democracies but the use of military force is diminishing among internationally relating nations. This is driven by rising political, military and economic competition along the borders of major culture and civilization, increasing the breakdown of order as states implodes, rogue states arming themselves with unconventional weaponry and competition among multiple great powers akin to post major world wars. The rising global insecurity has force the United States to adopt stringent measures of protecting its citizens. This study has focused on three areas where it can collaborate with other global partners in order to ensure that is security is bolstered. This study further confirms that the U.S. cannot go alone in this battle and the quest of enhancing it intelligence community (Berkowitz, 2010).
Complicating matters of the U.S. intelligence community is the absence of consensus over the impacts of the diverse features of the system. This calls for broader thinking, from advocates of a minimalist approach to advocates of a more active orientation in response to opportunity and necessity. Another factor deserves to be illuminated as a key influence on the U.S. intelligence community: the abundance of communication and information technologies. Information is easily accessible to policy makers on real time and an immediate basis through fax machines, telephones, computer links, the internet, television, and radio. Relatively detailed and accurate satellite imagery may be purchased. Vast volumes of information may be gathered and analyzed by think tanks, universities and businesses (Friend, 2007).
Improvements in transportation make it easier to dispatch staff of the intelligence community to obtain a firsthand impression of situations with minimal time wastage. Within the U.S. intelligence community, the new system of battle management provides the military with immediate instantaneous data on the disposition of both hostile and friendly forces, as well as targets. This results in policy makers and intelligence community entities having more information at their disposal. As such, the intelligence community will have more competitors in providing information to the military, civilian, and other users (Bean, 2011). In the context of such changes, the following sections look at how such changes will influence the U.S. intelligence community. At the end, the paper will discuss how the changes will shape the U.S. intelligence society in the future. This study draws on and contributes to the existing body of literature about relevant changes influencing the U.S. intelligence community and other related topics.
World changes that influenced the U.S. intelligence community
Dwindling resources and explosive population growth, new technologies and Reforms in the intelligence community will trigger radical political and economic changes. All these will alter the global power balance at an unprecedented speed in the modern history. According to a report released by the U.S. national intelligence council, enormous opportunities and danger lay ahead for investors, leaders, political systems and the entire world due to mega trends that are likely to transform the world intelligence community. These mega trends include the end of U.S. global dominance, the increasing population who has challenging demands, new rising world powers, technology advances, and proliferation of cities (Goldman, J. (2011).
Above the list of the game changer factors is the global economy, which is a crisis. The crisis-prone economy is vulnerable to global shocks and differences among national economies shifting at significantly varying speeds. Experts warn that the future is malleable. Decision makers must think and plan for the long-term. This will ensure that adverse effects of such disparities do not occur while the positive ones are allowed to unfold (Pillar, 2011).
While migrations, technological advances, and world wars changed the earlier regimes, the next systems of the intelligence community sought to drive change at a faster speed. They include the proliferation of new technologies, the growth of the middle class, shifting economic power, urbanization, aging population, growing demand for resources and American energy dependence. All these have been happening at a fast rate (Bean, 2011).
Dwindling resources and explosive population growth
Divergent rates of population growth and rising volatility will lead to a global economic breakdown or resiliency due to multiple growth rates. A global population expected to rise from seven billion today to eight billion by 2030 will bring many strains (Greenberg & Haass, 2006). In the developing world, the middle class will double. The education sector will be the major beneficiary of this growth in the middle class.
Much of the growing middle class is expected to flock in cities. This will increase the urban population of the world from approximately fifty percent of the world's total population to roughly sixty percent by 2030. Increase in incomes will fuel people's appetite for food and other resources such as energy and water. As such, these resources will be in short supply because changes in climate will alter the patterns of arable land and increase demand curbs the amount of available fuel use in production. While the demand for food is set to rise, the decline in global agricultural gains is imminent (Raskin, 2009). Such a trend will lead to a high Global water demand constraining the limited sustainable water supplies. This will make water a possible cause of regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East and South Asia (Berkowitz, 2010).
Power is expected to shift from Europe and North America to Asia with population, GDP, technological investment, and military spending surpassing the Western economy. China is likely to surpass the U.S. In terms of economic growth just before 2030. In addition, regional players like Nigeria, Columbia, Turkey, and India will become extremely crucial to the global economy. It is hard to predict the role of the U.S. In the new world order because the rate at which it continues to dominate the global system varies widely. The unipolar moment has passed, and the era of American ascendancy in worldwide politics since 1945 is dwindling fast (Pillar, 2011). In spite that, it is most likely that the U.S. will remain first among equals by 2030. It will remain the only power, which may orchestrate these coalitions such as state actors and non-state actors, to manage and deal with huge changes and challenges the world confronts. While the U.S. national intelligence council envisions the end of the unipolar world and U.S. dictatorship, there is no power yet, which can organize such relationships.
The management of resources will become complex due to changes in climate. Expanding educational opportunities and new communication technologies will empower the rising middle classes to develop greater demands on the government for their services (Johnson, 2012).
Reforms in the intelligence community
The procedure by which intelligence prerequisites and priorities are created warrants upgrade. Prerequisites for both analysis and collection must be vigorously affected by the requirements of policymakers. This contends against inferences to detach the collection organizations further or increases their independence. Business restrictions require consumers of intelligence to accept free intelligence after theirs and must find resources to underpin excellent intelligence efforts. Prioritization is an absolute necessity (Greenberg & Haass, 2006). The essential necessities for U.S. intelligence gathering and investigation in the future include the status of atomic weapons and materials in the previous Soviet Union, advancements in Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, and potential terrorism against U.S. targets in the mainland United States and abroad. It also includes the unusual proliferation of weapons and political and military improvements in China. Different targets may be added to this evidence incidentally if, for instance, U.S. forces were to be sent in huge numbers.
Economic intelligence is also critical to the U.S. However, the policymakers may not realize how to gather data on its major economic partners forcefully or models of examining economic issues. It was agreed that economic intelligence was not to be used offensively to help a U.S. win an agreement against foreign rivalry. It was to be utilized protectively to caution policymakers when bribes or other corrupt practices are continuously utilized against an American firm (Berkowitz, 2010).
Counterintelligence was viewed suitable to help secure U.S. firms from the surveillance efforts of remote firms and governments. The need to cover intelligence from political force is a capable contention for keeping up a strong concentrated ability without straining the national policymaking units. Intense examination of controversial inquiries can additionally help safeguard against politicization, as can Congress and the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) of the president (Johnson, 2012). Competitive analysis must be done and passed to policymakers in those ranges where being wrong can have major impacts. The leaders within the intelligence community should strengthen the ethic that saying the truth to those in authority is needed and shield any individual who is criticized for so doing.
The ideal approach to guarantee high quality analysis is to carry high caliber analysts into the procedure. Analysis might be enhanced by expanding the stream of talented individuals into the intelligence community from outside the government. Essential procurements must be provided to ensure that talented analysts can contribute…[continue]
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