Analyzing How Terrorism Affects Tourism in Istanbul

¶ … Terrorism Affects Tourism in Istanbul

The terror group, Islamic State, caused an explosion near Istanbul's historic Sultan Ahmed Cami Mosque (popularly known as the Blue Mosque). This raised serious concerns with regard to tourism in the country of Turkey. This recent explosion, which claimed the lives of ten tourists, followed another terror bombing incident in the country's capital Ankara, on 10th October, 2015, which claimed the lives of over a hundred individuals. Following the nation's tense situation, travel specialists from Turkey started raising concerns (Parvan, 2016). Turkish tourism could suffer a serious blow in light of the 12th January terror attack, in Istanbul's historical hub, near the famed Blue Mosque. According to Turkish travel specialists, considering that Turkey borders Syria and has been a target of terror attacks earlier, tourists were already uneasy about visiting. Thus, the events that transpired on January 12 will do nothing, but aggravate their qualms (Vora, 2016). As the explosion took place in Istanbul's deep centre, and the casualties included Norwegian and German tourists, one can expect further flight bans and travel restrictions towards Turkey in the near future. Major source markets of Europe will definitely be taking preventive measures to safeguard their citizens visiting vulnerable countries like Turkey. In spite of the blockage of major media at the spot, the Turkish tourism industry is forecasted to witness a decline in tourists from the repeated attacks on its tourist spots. The nation was already vulnerable after 103 individuals perished in the October suicide bombings on an activist group in Ankara. The Kurdish "Freedom Falcons of Kurdistan" splinter group, and PKK insurgents (PKK is a separatist group seeking Kurdish independence) are under watch as well, as they attributed the 23rd December attack on one of Istanbul's international airports to themselves (Chebib, 2016).

Repeated Terror Attacks in Istanbul

Turkey is a frequent target of bombers from Kurdish, Islamist, and leftist militant groups. In the summer of last year, Istanbul city alone witnessed four bombings, and just prior to Christmas, the second airport in the city was targeted by a mortar attack. This airport attack, which seemed to have been directed at tourists, had one casualty -- an airplane cleaner; serious airport property damage was also caused (Calder, 2016). Turkey's recent growing geopolitical tensions and terrorism risks have wreaked havoc for its tourism industry. The nation's otherwise flourishing tourism industry has, of late, been crushed by a series of terrorist attacks, believed to be led by Kurdish militants or the Islamic State (Travel and tour world.com, 2016). Travel and tour world.com (2016) reports that, compared to last year, summer 2016 bookings for Turkey have dropped by 40%, while more than a hundred hotel owners in the country are trying to sell off their businesses on account of extremely low occupancy levels. The country's tourism sector, which constitutes 4% of its gross domestic product, and provides jobs to 7% of Turkey's working population, is faced with tough times. Turkey's tourism figures tripled from 2001 to 2014. In the year 2012, the MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index included Istanbul under the five best global tourism destinations. But geopolitical tensions between Ankara and Moscow, which began following the last G20 summit, prompted a significant number of Russian tourists to cancel bookings. Aggravating the issue are the repeat terror attacks in the city of Istanbul, eliciting tremendous tensions within the world tourism market; ultimately, Turkey has suffered unjustifiably (Travel and tour world.com, 2016).

Four similar terror attacks have occurred in Turkey in a span of less than 10 months, all of which are widely considered to be organized by ISIL. They began with the June 5 attack during a pro-Kurdish HDP (People's Democratic Party) rally in Diyarbakir (just before the elections began on 7th June, 2015), claiming the lives of two individuals and leaving over a hundred individuals injured. The next attack's target was young leftist-Kurdish activists who had gathered together at a Suruc Cultural Center (Suruc is a predominantly Kurdish town in the South East). The youth were planning to offer assistance to the formerly-besieged Kobane city in Syria on 20th July, 2015. Thirty-two individuals lost their lives in the blast, while over a hundred individuals suffered injuries. The third attack, which was undoubtedly the bloodiest terror attack in modern Turkish history, took place in the course of a rally led by left wing and Kurdish political parties, civil societies, and trade unions in Ankara -- the nation's capital -- on 10th October, 2015. The death toll for this incident was 102, while hundreds of individuals suffered wounds. The historical backdrop for these attacks, and the criminals who perpetrated them, definitely had clear-cut political motives. By targeting the country's sectarian and ethnic (Turkish-Kurdish) diversity, the attackers were aiming at its political faults (Dalay, 2016).

By contrast, the very latest attack proves that the goal has now shifted to crippling the nation's economic lifelines. The last attack did not occur in a city in the interior areas of the country, wherein all victims would be natives. Rather, it occurred right in the middle of Istanbul's key tourist attractions. Every victim was a tourist, with the vast majority of them being Germans. As the Republic of Turkey welcomes approximately 35 to 40 million foreign tourists every year, tourism represents one among the key revenue generating sectors of Turkey, bringing in roughly 34 billion dollars. Considering the target group and site chosen for the attack, attackers were clearly aiming to disrupt the country's tourism industry, trying to depict it as unsafe. The attacks on Paris in November have been a harsh reminder to mankind that terrorism intends to disrupt everyday habits and the normalcy of life. Thus, avoiding sites such as Paris and Istanbul for tourism and leisure would be akin to handing terrorists a figurative victory (Dalay, 2016).

Effects of the Jan. 12, 2016 Attack in Istanbul

A suicide blast occurred in central Istanbul's historic Sultanahmet District on the 12th of January this year, leaving 10 foreigners (mostly German tourists) dead and injuring 15 other individuals. This is the latest attack in a series of onslaughts on Westerners by Islamic extremist groups. The blast, which occurred just a few steps away from Istanbul's historic Sultan Ahmed Cami Mosque or the Blue Mosque as well as a former church of the Byzantine era in the storied Sultanahmet District of Istanbul, was the Islamic State's first attempt to target the country's important tourism sector; militants belonging to the terror group have already wreaked lethal havoc elsewhere in Turkey. The effect of this attack, while less deadly compared to the prior attacks that occurred in 2015, was intensely far-reaching as it struck the country's 30-billion-dollar tourism sector, which was already suffering from an abrupt drop in Russian tourists, ever since the country decided to shoot down a warplane of Russia in November, near its Syrian border. Furthermore, Turkey's apparent connection with Syria threatens to have consequences in a nation that already deals with over two million refugees from Syria and a surge of immigrants from countries like Syria pouring across the nation on their way to the European continent. Hence, attacking the center of Istanbul's historical area, which teems with tourists, but has very few Turks, meant that Islamic State's target was the country's profitable tourism sector (Guzel & Fraser, 2016).

The tourism sector of Turkey, which was yet to convalesce from the effects of Russian restrictions, has also lost German tourists. After the terror attacks that occurred in January, in which no less than 10 Germans lost their lives, Germany's Foreign Ministry began advising its citizens to temporarily keep away from Turkish tourist attractions and packed public places. Quite unsurprisingly, the third terror attack within a span of 6 months adversely impacted Turkey's tourism sector. Statistics reveal that, of all nationalities, Germans accounted for the greatest share of tourists to Turkey, with over 4.5 million German tourists to the nation in the year 2014. A succession of misfortunes plaguing Turkey's tourism sector will have a definite adverse effect on the overall economy of the nation (Turkey's Tourism Crisis May Put Economy on Brink of Collapse, 2016). Regrettably for the country, tourists hailing from the most affluent nations, who typically squander the most money, will also be most easily disturbed by security threats. Security concerns will have the greatest influence on the high-income group of tourists, who will most likely be disinclined to visit in light of such occurrences (Devranoglu & Toksabay, 2016).

Effects of Past Terrorist Attacks on Other World Cities

Metropolitan areas across the world are now the prime targets of terrorist outfits. Terrorist attacks on popular cities with their diverse populations and identifiable landmarks have the maximum media and public impact. As evidenced by the 9/11 attack, tragedies in these cities produce a graphic spectacle that engraves itself in the minds of the public for a long time. Round-the-clock news channels and city-based mass media ensure instantaneous coverage. Terrorists wish for the public to witness their horrifying acts, and measure their success in terms of resultant panic and chaos. From Washington DC and New York City to London, Madrid and Mumbai, onslaughts on metropolitans have become a key trend -- with increase in city size, the fallout also increases. A novel attack pattern emerged in 2004, on mass transport and commuter systems, beginning from the Madrid attack in March of 2004. The rail network of Madrid staggered under a sequence of rush-hour explosions. A total of 191 individuals lost their lives, while more than 1700 suffered wounds. In July of the next year, a succession of coordinated blasts rocked the underground rail network of London, claiming 38 lives; this was another attack timed for the rush hour. Serial blasts shook Mumbai on 11th July, 2006 (commonly called the 7/11 attacks); the pattern was similar to the previous two attacks, with the only exception being the timing - the attacks took place during the evening rush hour. Terror goes along a path, often repeating itself. The serial blasts targeted at Bombay's markets and Stock Exchange in 1993 which killed 257 individuals, Tokyo's Sarin gas incident in March of 1995 which led to the hospitalization of 565 subway commuters, and the first attack on New York's World Trade Centre in the year 1993, had already established the urban terror trend (Singh, 2006).

The Indian capital -- Delhi -- has, since the year 1997, been struck by 26 major blasts that claimed at total of 92 lives and injured over 600 others. Of these, the most deadly incident was the 29th October, 2005 blasts, which left 62 persons dead and 155 injured. Three nearly-simultaneous blasts occurred -- one in a bus belonging to the Delhi Transport Corporation, and two at busy market areas of Delhi. This represented the next high-intensity attack after the 13th December, 2001 Parliament attack, which claimed 11 lives and left 30 wounded. The serial blasts of 7/11 in Mumbai's suburban trains, which killed 200 individuals and injured 700 others, has definitely been the deadliest terror attack India has witnessed in recent times. Earlier, on the 25th of August, 2003, blasts at Zaveri Bazar and Gateway of India killed 50 persons and wounded 150 civilians. Mumbai's 7/11 attacks were well-coordinated, planned, and engineered to take place from 6:24 PM to 6:35 PM, in the evening rush-hour, when workers return home from offices. Clearly, the intent was creating panic in the nation's financial capital, which in turn would create a cascading impact on India's economy (Singh, 2006). The last terror attack on India was the 26/11 Mumbai hotel attack, where a terror group hailing from Pakistan massacred 164 individuals. This incident damaged the nation's economic growth. India was downgraded by agencies as a destination for investment, its confidence shook, and foreign investors drew back from its stock markets. The attacks' overall impact was eventually heightened, as it occurred at the same time as the global 2008-09 financial crisis (Bajpai, 2015).

On the 11th of September, 2001, two aircrafts flew into the World Trade Center's twin towers, leading to their subsequent collapse. Five buildings surrounding the complex also suffered destruction, and New York's business district was changed forever. Over 3500 individuals lost their lives that fateful day. American real estate suffered staggering losses as well: office spaces measuring 13.45 million sq. ft. were destroyed, accounting for 30% of overall "class A" real estates in the business district and 3.6% of overall Manhattan office space (Glaeser & Shapiro, 2001). The 9/11 attacks represent one among the deadliest modern-day attacks on Western countries. Ten years after the tragedy, a survey was published by the New York Times estimating the attacks' true economic expenses, which were gauged to be a shocking 3.3 trillion dollars (Bajpai, 2015).

Train bombings claimed 191 lives and wounded about 1841 individuals in March of 2004, in Spain's Madrid. The country's growth in GDP dropped 0.6% with each quarter after the attack. Eventually, however, the Spanish economy's annual growth rate for 2004 amounted to 3.2%, the same as it was in the year 2003. The next year, its economy enjoyed a growth increase of 3.7% (Bajpai, 2015).

Kenya's Westgate shopping center was targeted strategically by attackers. This popular destination is typically flooded with wealthy Kenyans as well as international dignitaries and tourists. The five-story mall with its high-end shopping outlets clearly indicates the nation's rapid economic progress. The International Monetary Fund hinted Kenya would soon be witnessing a 6% GDP expansion in 2013. The Westgate shooting incident threatened the nation's growth by dissuading foreign investment; its inflows hit 382.3 million dollars in that year's second quarter. It also served to discourage tourists; the Kenyan tourism sector supports several hundred thousand jobs, accounting for about 12% of the nation's yearly GDP. The last of such attack to rock Kenya occurred in 1998, when the United States embassy located in Nairobi was the target of an explosion. This occurred concurrently with a similar attack on Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's U.S. embassy. The two explosions claimed hundreds of lives and left thousands wounded. The Westgate shooting ensured Nairobi, as well as the rest of the world, stumbled yet again. The attack had major repercussions for a region wherein terror activities have been growing for many years, and some of the continent's quickest-growing economies lie (IBTimes, 2013).

One among the biggest industries in France is certainly the tourism industry, which accounts for 7% of its GDP. France represents the world's leading tourist destination, which welcomes 83 million tourists per year. In 2013, tourist spending in France was calculated to be approximately 45.3 billion dollars. In the winter season, Asian tourists flock the country, seeking a cool winter in Europe without getting overly chilly; Paris rarely sees snowfall, and the misty, foggy winter atmosphere of Paris is normally perceived as romantic and mysterious. The losses owing to the Paris terror attacks could quite easily amount to tens of billions of dollars, if not hundreds. Parisian tourist sites and parks had to close down in the attacks' aftermath. British and American governments warned citizens against travelling to Paris. These attacks stuck the heart of France's economy, in tricky times. The Eurozone witnessed an insubstantial 1.2% growth in last year's third quarter, which was quite below expectations. FranAois Hollande, the President of France, has been criticized for not doing enough to revive the nation's recently limping economy, which was undoubtedly hit further by the attacks. Moreover, the nation is also witnessing an above-10% unemployment rate. Also, it was not only the economy of France that suffered. Between security concerns and border holdups, Brussels and London are also anecdotally reported to have witnessed low turnout of shoppers in the busiest, pre-holiday shopping season. Lastly, the integrated character of European Union member nations' economies meant that other economies suffered as well (Newton-Small, 2015).

Future Scenarios for Istanbul

In the last 15 years, the horrendous activities of terror groups have been rising steadily. Since the start of the 21st century, the world has witnessed a five-fold rise in deaths from terror attacks. Right from New York to Madrid, Kenya to Tunisia, and Baghdad to Beirut and Paris, terror attacks have been plaguing the news, and are clearly quite diverse in their location, perpetrators, and impact. Insights produced from analysing all these events aided the tourism industry and lawmakers in understanding terrorism's implications.

Istanbul's Quick Bounce Back

The hospitality industry has become more resistant to terror shocks. In fact, in the last 15 years, the time required for tourist destinations to pull through such shocks has decreased appreciably. For example, occupancy rates at New York's hotels recovered a whole 34 months after the 9/11 attacks, while the wider American market needed 45 months, the impact being compounded by the economic downturn. Compared to America, Madrid recovered quickly (within a year), while London required only 9 months for stabilizing itself again. The more recent Boston Marathon attack and Parisian Charlie Hebdo shootings did not have much impact on the rates of hotel occupancy (Misrahi, 2015).