Bias Few Things in the PhD Model Answer

Excerpt from PhD Model Answer :

Without taking into account these factors, strategic planning will not measure up to the requirements of planning adequately for the future.

The author also notes that the complexity of strategic planning is increased by the flexibility of the all the factors involved. Thorough analysis is therefore required to construct a viable strategy that takes into account as many factors as possible. As an example, Habegger (2009: 3) mentions the United Kingdom, whose strategic foresight has been at the root of the country's national policy since the 1960s. Beginning as a way to enhance the innovative force of the British industry, the strategy has grown to include social, ecological, technological and political aspects. One part of this improved strategy is the "Horizon Scanning Centre," established in 2004. Its two core activities include the Sigma Scan and foresight projects. The Sigma Scan involves an information basis for all foresight activities, based upon information from multiple media, including academia, the economy, governments, culture, and so on. These are then used to provide possible future trends for the next 50 years and are important tools for British policymaking. The foresight projects are aimed at identifying a number of core challenges for the future of the UK and mitigating these by means of comprehensive analysis. This analysis is also then meant to result in a foresight program to support decision- and policymaking.

CONCLUSIONS

g)

In conclusion, the nature of the strategic foresight and warning environment, by its nature, requires a non-rigid approach towards the thinking and planning processes of its personnel. According to the Center for Security Studies (2009: 3), strategic foresight itself is both multifaceted and flexible, and should therefore be approached in the same way. The Center suggests four factors that contribute to the success of strategic foresight procedures. These include a holistic view of future threats and risks; the integration of knowledge gathered by a range of related professionals; the use of reliable and credible sources; and finally the encouragement of creativity and intellectual freedom. While certain forms of bias may provide initial focus, critical thinking is therefore vital in strategic foresight and warning organizations.

References

Barber, M. 2006. Wildcards -- Signals from a future near you.

Conway, M. 2005. Strategic Planning Revisited: A Futures Perspective. World Futures Society Annual Conference.

Edmund, N.W. Decision Making: A Guide to creative Decision Making and Critical Thinking.

Graves, T. Stealth Foresight for Innovation: Creating support for creative change in large organisations in Australia. Journal of Futures Studies. November, Vol. 12, No. 2.

Habegger, B. 2009. Strategic Foresight: Anticipation and Capacity to Act. CCS Analyses in Security Policy, No. 52, April.

Krishnadas, D. 2005. Imagining Surprise: Locating the Causality of Strategic Surprise. MA Thesis, Law and Diplomacy.

Kuhn, T.S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press

Mendonca, S., Cardoso, G. And Caraca, J. Some Notes on the Strategic Strength of Weak Signal Analysis. Lisbon Internet and Networks.…

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