¶ … pressures on the pulp and forest products industries at present, making prediction difficult. Some of the harsh effects of the 2001 recession began to ease in the second half of 2002, when paper prices began to firm. This segment is the largest revenue producer for the industry, so the relief was widely welcomed. However, any extraordinary effects are likely to be mitigated by the oversupply in the wood products sector. (Standard and Poor's Web site, "Current Environment.")
International Paper is considered the largest pulp and forest products company in the U.S., followed by Georgia-Pacific (GP). (Hoover's online Web site) A quick look at their financials, however, demonstrates that they are not equally successful, although both serve virtually the entire range of possible market sectors, and International Paper (IP) also serves some extra niches, producing wood-derived chemicals including crude tall oil and crude sulfate turpentine, as well as a variety of inks, thereby covering markets throughout the possible uses of tree-based products. (Hoover's online Web site.)
In 2002, Standard & Poor's reported negative net income for Georgia-Pacific, at $-190.0 (million). It reported net income of $295 million for International Paper.
The reason for this, despite GP's number two spot in the industry, might be laid at the feet of its product mix: it sold 60% of its Unisource Worldwide distribution segment in 2002. That segment, along with GP's building products accounted for just over half the company's sales. (Hoover's online Web site) As noted above, the market for building products is currently the weakest in the pulp and forest products industry.
The merger of Continental Paper Company and Great Northwestern Lumber Company makes an interesting study, particularly regarding an ROI forecast. Last year, Continental's sales of $600 million generated $120 million in net profits. Its serves the paper segment of the industry, which did see a rally last year. Great Northwestern, serving the pulp and building products segments, earned only $60 million on sales of $1.8 billion.
It would appear at first that there was no good reason for C. To join GN, except to add value for stockholders in the form of GN's vast forest holdings. In fact, stock analyst Matthew Berler, who covered forest-products and paper for Morgan Stanley, urged investors to be "quite careful" with paper and forest-products stocks this year, buying only on sharp drops and selling on rallies; this upholds the Continental viewpoint that adding underlying value to their basically finished products company would be a good long-term move, and probably won't hurt shorter term, either. (Wall Street Journal May 13, 2003)
It appears that IP properly handled its major strength -- ownership of vast timberlands and basically total market integration -- while also meeting outside challenges. Hoover's did not report any changes in its operational, structure, products or markets. On the other hand, GP was set to spin off lucrative (although costly to promote and serve) markets in household paper products (Brawny paper towels, Quilted Northern, etc.), but cancelled the spin-off, citing poor market conditions for its public offering. And it possibly shot itself in the foot anyway by selling off a major component of its most lucrative segment, distribution. Perhaps it was attempting to return to its core business -- pulp and forest products -- but the timing was not good. GP seems to have ignored its strengths (relative to IP, a smaller inventory of divisions to operate) and fallen prey to what might have been an outside threat, divesting itself of a lucrative component. (Hoover's Online Web site)
Into that arena, C&GN arrives, newly acquired of many of the same components as IP enjoys. There will be some costs generated by combining the companies and some cost of duplication of functions for a while, at least, especially in view of the stated aims of downsizing where needed by attrition only. The real thorn in this might be the diametrically opposite management styles of the two CEOs. But it would still be reasonable to assume that, if the new company enters a holding pattern for its building products, and devotes much of the vast timberlands to serving the paper and packing materials brought to the company by Continental, the company should increase its market share (possibly taking a bite out of GP), for sales of about $2 billion with net profits of $200 to $210 million.
That is predicated on using a strategy based on differentiation, of both products (paper, packaging, building materials) and applying differentiation -- or perhaps refocusing -- to the uses of the timberlands and pulp mills. Distinctive competencies and resource deployment will be particularly important to achieving these goals. (Griffin 72)
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