Estimating mortality patterns in the Darfur conflict

Darfur Conflict and Mortality Rates

The conflict in Darfur has led to a worsening of humanitarian concerns in Sudan. The country is already plagued by other economic and social concerns. High mortality rates have been noted in Darfur as a result. This study will aim at establishing a pattern in mortality rates in the conflict zone from the onset of the conflict. Various data have been tabled regarding mortality rates in Darfur, but there is no true, factual figure to represent the magnitude of the calamity on the ground (Flint 15). Displacement and migration have led to more humanitarian concerns that have resulted in an outbreak of diseases. This has exposed the displaced population to be most affected by diseases. The situation has further been worsened by lack of access to shelter, food or even clean supply of water. Mortality rates have therefore been attributed to starvation and diseases beside the war itself (Flint 16). This study seeks to deeper explore these findings.

Introduction

The Darfur conflict in Sudan has led to various estimates of Mortality rates since 2004. The region has been experiencing conflicts over the past years, starting February 2003. The conflict is Guerilla centered but has caused a lot of deaths since it started. The conflict is basically against civilians, with humanitarian groups accusing the government of secretly financing militia groups who have perpetrated the attacks (Flint 20). Massive migrations from war zones have also been experienced and a resultant displacement of innocent civilians witnessed. Many have therefore been forced to cross the border out of Sudan into refugee camps thereby creating a humanitarian crisis.

Mortality figures that have been put forward by the Sudanese government are approximately 19,500 civilian deaths while other humanitarian groups such as non-governmental organizations have pit the figures around 400,000. World Health organization puts the mortality rates as at September 2004 (about two years after the conflict started) to be roughly 50,000 civilian deaths. This has been mainly attributed to starvation. Further estimates from March to October 2004 put the mortality rate figure at 70,000. The figures have however been disputed because they didn't factor in death as a result of violence. A further estimate developed by the British Parliamentary Report said that 300,000 people have died from the conflict. The figures keep on changing by the day and are varied from organization to organization (Flint 39-45).

The goal of this study is to estimate the patterns of mortality rates from this conflict. Emphasis will be made on the humanitarian crisis by analyzing diseases as a great contributor to the mortality rates. Cases of starvation and disease have been noted to be the biggest concerns in the crisis besides the violence itself. This study will also assess the community and civilian vulnerability to the effects of the violence.

Methodology

Sources of Data

The data was analyzed from online data sources. It was majorly obtained from the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Diseases; an online data base. Statistics regarding health and nutrition were obtained from population-based surveys undertaken in Darfur and other conflict areas since the year 2000. The data was from articles and features. Other sources utilized were from non-governmental organizations, Sudan government, World Bank and News articles. The data was used to come up with figures for mortality rates, nutrition surveys, migration trends and humanitarian concerns. Data was therefore analyzed from mortality rates surveys from Darfur to establish the patterns of mortality rate surveys across time periods. This was done for several types of mortality rate indicators. A further assessment was done on civilian displacement and the number of deaths was estimated on excess of the expected.

Data Analysis

The data was analyzed using the Quasi-Poisson models. This method was used to evaluate the mortality rates with an emphasis on the place of research and its timing. The number of displaced people in the survey was a variable to explain the trends. The projected mortality rates for future five periods were computed and analyzed against the civilian data obtained from the UN publications about the Darfur conflict. This was aimed at obtaining the number of deaths. We found that 63 out of 107 mortality rates surveys met the criteria to be used.

Conclusion

This study is stretched along the period from the start of the conflict to the present. This is a positive analysis unlike previous studies which haven't factored in the effects of violence and disasters in the conflict. With this approach, conflict-related mortality is deemed more consistent with time and geography. This was not the case in past studies. In addition, the affected population of civilians also varies with time. In future analysis, the estimation of cause-death effect on mortality rates would help in understanding conflicts and their dynamics. The findings for this research study are assumed to be credible because the validation process was repeated to ensure credibility of the data. Before the sampling was done, rates were calculated and their limitations established. The clusters were also verified to be on the basis of population size. All houses including those that didn't have children below the age of 5 years were also included. UN's series 18 about the conflict was also used a secondary source of data to determine the number of affected people and the level of the humanitarian crisis.

The findings expressed in this study can therefore be used by governments and humanitarian organizations in assessing the situation in Darfur. Credible data is given regarding the trends of mortality rates and governments could use this information to assist in averting more death of civilians. The study also identifies humanitarian aid as basic for a reduction in mortality rates. This information would help boost efforts to avert more deaths in conflict ridden areas.