PMESII-White Paper

Introduction

The United States has long been an important partner of Pakistan, providing essential economic and military assistance. However, in recent years the relationship has become strained, due in part to Pakistan's failure to adequately tackle the problem of terrorism within its borders. This paper describes the operating environment in Pakistan, the desired end state and problem frame, as well as the whole of government course of action for the United Statesconsisting primarily of the provision of essential services, economic/infrastructure investment and development, and regional security. It concludes with an assessment of potential risks.

Description of the Operating Environment

Pakistan has faced many challenges in recent years, including terrorism, economic instability, and environmental problems. However, the country remains an important player in the region and on the global stage. The economy is struggling, and unemployment is high. Pakistan also faces significant demographic challenges. Over 60% of the population is under the age of 25, and the population is expected to grow to over 400 million by 2050. It is turning more towards China as a result so as to be part of the Belt/Road Initiative and Chinas multipolar model. This rapidly growing population puts strain on already limited resources, and has led to increased social tensions.

It is believed by some Pakistani leaders that programs such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will lead to economic growth for both countries while reversing the current Pakistan energy crisis. This form of cooperation from China (financially assisting a developing country) aligns with Chinas reputation for being an economic predator and enabler of authoritarian forms of government. The current interaction between the two countries directly challenges US strategic interestsspecifically, resist those who believe autocracy is the best way forward, that democracy is essential for meeting the challenges of a changing world and look for opportunities to invest in the development of countries to reduce the likelihood of instability.

Desired End State and Problem Frame

The desired end state for the Pakistani environment is one of stable but complex international relationships, where the country can navigate its own interests while also managing the expectations and demands of multiple external actors, while giving primacy of place to the US. On the military front, Pakistan must possess a strong ability to defend its borders against existential threats, while also keeping a close eye on internal instability. Internal demographics should be supportive of a large workforce that can drive economic growth, but also self-sufficient so as to not put unwanted pressures on social services and infrastructure. The culture of Pakistan should embrace diversity and be open to Western cultural values. Its international relations should be marked by deference to the demands of the US.

The problem is due to social, economic, political and geopolitical tension, Pakistan lacks a stable environment that gives primacy of place to US influence/ideals; instead, domestic actors (Taliban) and foreign actors (China) have gained ground in Pakistan. In order for the U.S. to meet one of the national priorities set forth in the NSS, engagement in Pakistan...…groups in an effort to reduce violence and instability in the region. These are just a few of the many objectives and actions the US can take in Pakistan with regard to regional security.

Risk

One risk is that by seeking to influence social, economic and political arenas in Pakistan, some terror groups may push back and recruit still more heavily. Some political leaders may also see an opportunity to leverage US overtures against China to secure more investment or support from the East. Mitigation steps should include clauses in contracts to abandon all financial/economic/infrastructural development plans with China.

Conclusions

Politically, populism is spreading across Pakistan and adding to the historical polarization between the political and middle/low classes and between ethnic/religious groups. The US has reduced foreign aid to Pakistanan opportunity quickly leveraged by China when they partnered with Pakistan to improve a decaying Pakistan infrastructure. Pakistan has been mired with decades of internal political conflict between its civilian and military governments. Part of this has been driven by perceived threats from abroad as well as governmental, bureaucratic, and industrial corruption. This situation has led to low levels of foreign investment, under employment, and poor infrastructure Moreover, the current state puts Pakistan at an inflection point at which it has the potential to stabilize or to devolve into a civil-military crisis. The US should seek to shore up relations with Pakistan so as to stabilize the country and win it away from Chinese influenceby providing essential services, supporting economic/infrastructural development, and enhancing regional security.