Economic Aid and Development for Pakistan

PMESII-White Paper

Introduction

The United States has long been an important partner of Pakistan, providing essential economic and military assistance. However, in recent years the relationship has become strained, due in part to Pakistan's failure to adequately tackle the problem of terrorism within its borders. This paper describes the operating environment in Pakistan, the desired end state and problem frame, as well as the whole of government course of action for the United States—consisting primarily of the provision of essential services, economic/infrastructure investment and development, and regional security. It concludes with an assessment of potential risks.

Description of the Operating Environment

Pakistan has faced many challenges in recent years, including terrorism, economic instability, and environmental problems. However, the country remains an important player in the region and on the global stage. The economy is struggling, and unemployment is high. Pakistan also faces significant demographic challenges. Over 60% of the population is under the age of 25, and the population is expected to grow to over 400 million by 2050. It is turning more towards China as a result so as to be part of the Belt/Road Initiative and China’s multipolar model. This rapidly growing population puts strain on already limited resources, and has led to increased social tensions.

It is believed by some Pakistani leaders that programs such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will lead to economic growth for both countries while reversing the current Pakistan energy crisis. This form of cooperation from China (financially assisting a developing country) aligns with China’s reputation for being an economic predator and enabler of authoritarian forms of government. The current interaction between the two countries directly challenges US strategic interests—specifically, resist those who believe autocracy is the best way forward, that democracy is essential for meeting the challenges of a changing world and look for opportunities to invest in the development of countries to reduce the likelihood of instability.

Desired End State and Problem Frame

The desired end state for the Pakistani environment is one of stable but complex international relationships, where the country can navigate its own interests while also managing the expectations and demands of multiple external actors, while giving primacy of place to the US. On the military front, Pakistan must possess a strong ability to defend its borders against existential threats, while also keeping a close eye on internal instability. Internal demographics should be supportive of a large workforce that can drive economic growth, but also self-sufficient so as to not put unwanted pressures on social services and infrastructure. The culture of Pakistan should embrace diversity and be open to Western cultural values. Its international relations should be marked by deference to the demands of the US.

The problem is due to social, economic, political and geopolitical tension, Pakistan lacks a stable environment that gives primacy of place to US influence/ideals; instead, domestic actors (Taliban) and foreign actors (China) have gained ground in Pakistan. In order for the U.S. to meet one of the national priorities set forth in the NSS, engagement in Pakistan is necessary to sustain the stability of the international environment. Time is working against the U.S. considering the natural disaster, political unrest, and economic endeavors with China. Countering those three elements (infrastructure, political, economic) will deliver the desired environment in Pakistan.

The desired end-state thus also includes minimal need for US foreign aid but when provided is used wisely, without worry of corruption, to sustain and enhance a modern infrastructure that leverages clean energy capabilities, minimal reliance on economic assistance or partnership with economic-predator countries such as China that enable authoritarian forms of government. This desired end-state directly aligns with US strategic interests—especially, resistance of autocratic form of governments to meet the challenges of a changing world to leverage opportunities to invest in the development of countries to reduce the likelihood of instability, and an infrastructure that successfully deals with the escalating climate crisis and avoids international economic disruptions and protracted humanitarian crisis. Pakistan is also a key ally in the fight against terrorism, and the US wants to ensure that Pakistan has the resources it needs to effectively combat extremists.

Whole of Government Course of Action for the United States

LOO/LOE 1- Essential Services

The United States has a wide range of objectives and actions that it wishes to see implemented in Pakistan with regard to essential services. Firstly, the US wishes to see an improvement in the quality of essential services provided in Pakistan. This includes improving the capacity of service delivery institutions, as well as making sure that service providers are adequately trained and equipped to deliver high-quality services. Secondly, the US wants to see an expansion of the coverage of essential services in Pakistan. This means increasing access to essential services for all groups in society, including women, children, and rural populations. Thirdly, the US hopes to see a reduction in the cost of essential services in Pakistan. This will make it easier for people to access essential services and make them more affordable for everyone. Finally, the US also wants to see an increase in accountability and transparency in the way that essential services are delivered in Pakistan. This will help to ensure that service providers are accountable for their actions and that people have a clear understanding of how their money is being spent. The US will continue to work with Pakistan to achieve these objectives and ensure that essential services are available to everyone who needs them.

LOO/LOE 2- Economic/Infrastructure Dev

The United States has a number of objectives with regard to economic and infrastructure development in Pakistan. First, the US should seek to improve Pakistan’s overall economic stability and growth. This includes promoting investment and trade, strengthening financial institutions, and improving macroeconomic management. Second, the US should aim to promote development that is sustainable and equitable. This means supporting initiatives that create jobs and lift people out of poverty, while also protecting the environment. Third, the US should strive to improve Pakistan’s infrastructure. This includes upgrading transportation networks, expanding access to electricity, and improving water and sanitation facilities. Finally, the US wants to build strong partnerships with Pakistani businesses and organizations. This helps to create opportunities for cooperation and joint ventures, as well as promoting mutual understanding and respect. By working towards these objectives, the US can help Pakistan develop into a thriving economy with a strong infrastructure that benefits all its citizens.

The main objective therefore is for the US to provide significant economic assistance to Pakistan, including both development assistance and counter-terrorism financing. The actions to be taken are that the US should continue to work to improve Pakistan’s infrastructure, including by supporting the construction of roads, bridges, and flood control projects. These efforts will help to make Pakistan a more stable and prosperous country, and also strengthen the US-Pakistan relationship.

LOO/LOE 3- Regional Security

The US has a number of objectives and actions it can take in Pakistan with regard to regional security. First, the US should continue to support Pakistan's efforts to combat terrorist groups operating within its borders. This includes providing financial and military assistance to Pakistan's government and security forces. Second, the US should work with Pakistan to improve border security and prevent terrorist groups from using Pakistani territory as a base of operations. This will require increased intelligence-sharing and cooperation between the two countries. Finally, the US should encourage Pakistan to pursue a political settlement with militant groups in an effort to reduce violence and instability in the region. These are just a few of the many objectives and actions the US can take in Pakistan with regard to regional security.