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Growth Models Research Paper

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GDP GNI GDP and GNI Discussion: China and Canada

The country selected for our analysis is China, a nation that has experienced an apparent increase in the rate of its growth in concurrence with the shifts in the global economy. As free trade has opened China up to a greater number of trade partners and to particular trade partners in much larger proportion such as the United States, a great many indicators stand to suggest that China has in fact enjoyed a change in its rate of growth. On the surface, this appears to correspond with the principles of the Harrod-Domar model, which indicates that "the more an economy is able to save -- and invest -- the great will be the GDP growth." (Ghosh, lec3-4.1, p. 11)

As China's role in the global economy has increased, its apparent savings and capital for investment has produced a non-constant growth rate that may be characterized as warranted growth. According to the World Bank, the saving/investment rate in China, labeled as gross capital formation, % of GDP, has risen steadily between the years of 2000 and 2004. Respectively in these years, China's savings/investment rates are listed as 35, 36, 38, 41 and 43. (World Bank)

Using the Harrod-Domar Equation of g = s/v -- ? where v=3 and the rate of capital depreciation is identified as 0, the equation is...

Respectively, these are 11.7, 12, 12.7, 13.7 and 14.3. We compare these rates of implied growth, which demonstrate a steady climb in the space of time examined, with the 'actual growth rates' recorded by the World Bank at the same duration. According to the World Bank, China's GDP growth (annual %) from the years 2001 to 2005 would be marked at 8.3, 9.1, 10.0, 10.1 and 11.3. (World Bank)
The findings of this exercise seem to suggest a compatibility between the trends in Chinese GDP growth over the time examined and the rate of savings/investment as this measures an implied GDP. The two indicators both exhibit a steady rise in GDP which underlines the consistency of the Harrod-Domar model. Indeed, we note a rise of 3 percentage points in the rate of growth across the five years measures where actual GDP is concerned. The implied rate of growth across this same duration produces a rise of 2.6%. This proximity of these figures suggests that China is an effective example of the Harrod-Domar model, denoting a developing context in which balanced growth is not 'naturally occurring' but is instead warranted by the rate of savings and investment. As this rate has demonstrated a steady increase between the years of 2001 and 2005, we may say there has…

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As noted above, the actual GDP (annual %) in China rose between the years of 2001 and 2005 steadily and to the end of a 3% point increase. This is a point of reference for the developing nation as compares to the relatively industrialized and fully globalized Canada. According to the World Bank, Canada's actual GDP rates during this period were 1.8, 2.9, 1.9, 3.1 and 3.0. We note several distinctive differences immediately between these indicators and the index produced in China during the exact same period.

Before considering these differences in greater detail, we consider the divergent starting points of the two nations in consideration. According to the World Bank, the GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) may help to underscore the two distinct trends. In China, this number is presented according to world currency standards as $2,948,848,362,904.5 whereas in Canada, this index produces the figure of $851,322,906,082.9. Both figures are drawn from the year 2000 and precede the differing rates of growth between the two nations. Here, we are in the unusual scenario of examining a developing nation whose GNI is significantly higher than that of the developed nation considered. The Solow model helps to bring clarity to this discussion by revealing that with the addition of labour to the equation examining per capita growth, we can understand with greater accuracy the GDP growth there experienced. The enormity of China's economy is driven by this principle, with the Solow model offering the equation of k=K/L as a way of deteriming where K. is technology and L. is labour and where both produce diminishing returns alone but constant returns when combined. (Ghosh, lec3-4.2, p. 33)

Here we gain some explanation for China's greater potential for short-term growth, with its greater labour pool and the more novel infusion of global technology opportunities helping to stimulate a greater and more constant rate of growth for the massive developing nation. To this point, across the years of 2001 and 2005, the average rate of growth for Canada is .24%. For China, the average rate of growth is .6%. Given the relationship between labour and technology and all that we have learned about China's dramatic gains in these areas across the last decade, it is as anticipated that its growth has been faster, greater and of a more constant nature than that seen in Canada. This confirms the initial assumptions of the Solow model, illustrating that when external forces such as the influx of new technologies combine with an already expansive labour force, the opportunity for a more sustained type of growth becomes probable.
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