How the ICAO Affects the Geopolitical Sphere

The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Role in International Relations
Established shortly before the end of World War II in December 1944 and known as the Provisional International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization (hereinafter alternatively ICAO or “the organization”) became a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) on April 4, 1947 (About ICAO, 2017). Since that time, the overarching purpose of the ICAO was set forth in the Convention on International Civil Aviation (commonly known as the “Chicago Convention” or simply “the Convention”) together with specific mandates for the future (About ICAO, 2017). Today, the Convention’s 192 member-states (see Appendix A) and various industry groups pursue common solutions for global aviation-related problems as well as optimal standards and recommended practices to provide a civil aviation sector that is efficient and safe as well as environmentally responsible and sustainable (About ICAO, 2017). This paper provides a review of the relevant literature concerning the ICAO to describe the evolution of its operating framework and current membership followed by a discussion concerning the organization’s overarching objective and achievements to date. Finally, an analysis of the most pressing issues facing the ICAO today and proposed solutions conclude the paper.
Review and Discussion
Framework
The general organizational framework in which the ICAO operates to achieve its purpose and Convention mandates is depicted in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Organizational framework of the ICAO
Source: http://dev.ulb.ac.be/ceese/ABC_Impacts/glossary/images_glossary/icao.png
The standards and recommended practices and policies developed under this framework are used by the member-states of the ICAO to assure that their respective civil aviation operations and regulations are in conformance with global best practices and norms in n order to facilitate the oversight of more than 100,000 air flights each day in virtually every part of the world (About ICAO, 2017). Besides the standards and recommended practices and procedures developed by the ICAO, the organization is also responsible for providing assistance as needed and coordinating capacity building among member-states concerning global plans for coordinating multinational air and safety navigation, monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of current oversight regimens and overseeing aviation-related issues with respect to general safety and security (About ICAO, 2017).
A complete listing of all 192 current member-states of the ICAO is provided at Appendix A and a map of ICAO’s regional offices in provided in the map depicted in Figure 2 below (see Appendix A for a list of ICAO Council Members)..
Figure 2. ICAO regional offices
Source: ICAO, 2017 at http://gis.icao.int/SVGICAOMAP/ICAOREGWEBSECgil.html
Notwithstanding the exhaustive membership in the ICAO today as shown at Appendix A, the organization did not always represent the overwhelming majority of the countries of the world. In fact, fully 80% of the original ICAO assembly had to approve the membership of the former Axis powers (i.e., Germany, Japan and Italy) before they were allowed to join the ICAO together with the approval from any country that was attacked by these powers during World War II (Jeon, 2010).
Despite these seemingly onerous requirements, though, the admission process led primarily by the United States was characterized by high levels of international cooperation and former adversaries soon became committed to the development and sustainment of a viable global civil aviation framework (Jeon, 2010). In fact, the United States encouraged the ICAO to provide as many technical assistance programs to newly democratized countries in an effort to “strengthen the free world and win [the] Cold War struggle by the imaginative use of civil aviation assistance” (Jeon, 2010, p. 240).
By contrast, the opposition by the United States to the admission of the newly formed communist government in the People’s Republic of China’s demand to kick Taiwan (a founding member-state) out of the ICAO significantly delayed mainland China’s entry into the organization (Jeon, 2010) and Taiwan was eventually forced out of the ICAO in 1971 after losing its UN membership (Kao, 2016). Indeed, no communist countries were elected to the ICAO’s council until 1965 and the former Soviet Union delayed into entry into the organization until 1970 (Jeon, 2010).
Further, the ICAO also played other significant roles in the geopolitical sphere during the mid-20th century as well. For example, Jeon (2010) reports that, “In addition to tensions between capitalist and communist states, regional problems also surfaced at ICAO. Many African states wanted to expel apartheid South Africa, for example, and Israel faced hostility from Middle Eastern member countries” (p. 241). Resolving these multinational differences has not always been easy or quick, of course, but the ICAO has remained committed to achieving its overarching objective since its establishment more than 70 years ago as discussed further below.
Objective
The original objective of the ICAO remains salient today: to promote the safe and efficient development of international civil aviation as set forth by provisions of the Convention on International Civil Aviation concerning the purpose of ICAO as follows:
1. “WHEREAS the future development of international civil aviation can greatly help to create and preserve friendship and understanding among the nations and peoples of the world, yet its abuse can become a threat to the general security; and
2. “WHEREAS it is desirable to avoid friction and to promote that cooperation between nations and peoples upon which the peace of the world depends;
3. “THEREFORE, the undersigned governments having agreed on certain principles and arrangements in order that international civil aviation may be developed in a safe and orderly manner and that international air transport services may be established on the basis of equality of opportunity and operated soundly and economically (History of the ICAO, 2017, para. 3).
In addition, the foregoing overarching purpose was given additional definitional clarity in 1971 at an ICAO conference in Montreal where it was stipulated that:
The purpose of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is to develop the principles and techniques of international air navigation and to foster the planning and development of international air transport, so as to ensure the safe and orderly growth of international civil aviation throughout the world (Agency appropriations for fiscal year 1978, 1977).
Given the importance of this overarching purpose to global transportation and economic development, it is especially noteworthy that the ICAO has succeeded in a number of areas over the years, including most especially those discussed below.
Achievements
From a strictly geopolitical perspective, just about anything the ICAO has achieved over the years had carried with it global implications. A case study of the ICAO by Jeon (2010) found that, based on its efforts over the past 60-plus year, the achievements of the ICAO have had significant global implications. For instance, Jeon (2010) emphasizes that, “International aviation has been crucial in defining new terms and categories of international politics, economics, and law. [The] ICAO served as a forum for debates in each of these areas” (p. 240).
By serving as an objective forum for the political debates that shaped the latter half of the 20th century, the ICAO has clearly contributed to the peaceful resolution of issues that could otherwise assume far more serious consequences. As Jeon (2010) concludes, “Our understanding of Cold War international relations would be incomplete if we did not consider the efforts and resources that went into creating and maintaining international systems of civil aviation” (p. 241). This assertion is consistent with the guidance provided by Wang (2016) who notes that civil air travel promotes business efficiency and closer economic integration among countries. It enables service industries to reach wider regional markets and cater to a larger customer base. Air travel also makes it easier to facilitate the exchange of ideas among companies through business travels and conferences. Access to air travel also has an impact on investment (Wang, 2016).
An ICAO-sponsored survey shows that 18 percent of businesses' investment decisions were directly affected by the absence of efficient air transportation connections (Wang, 2016). Moreover, the frequency of passenger flights has become an accurate bellwether of regional economic integration due to manner in which they facilitate stronger economic ties between countries (Wang, 2016). Some indication of the salience of this indicator can be discerned from the results of the ICAO-sponsored survey that found that, “More than 35 non-stop flights fly from London to Paris every day [vs] about 15 from São Paulo to Buenos Aires. If flights could link [them] as tightly as London and Paris, both would enjoy huge economic gains” (p. 7). Beyond the economic benefits that accrue to stronger ties between countries, more frequent air service between countries also helps family members from nations with large expatriate populations keep in touch with each other, strengthening and sustaining family bonds (Wang, 2016).
Beyond the foregoing achievements, another noteworthy achievement of the ICAO since its inception has been its targeted initiatives that have been designed to improve civil aviation in member-states pursuant to the ICAO’s Technical Cooperation Program which is staffed and guided by the Technical Cooperation Bureau (History of the ICAO, 2017). The ICAO’s Technical Cooperation Bureau has been highly effective at providing member-states and other stakeholders in the private sector with the timely guidance and assistance they needed to develop and maintain safe and secure civil aviation practices (History of the ICAO, 2017).
Other recent achievements by the ICAO with salient implications for the geopolitical sphere include those set forth in Table 1 below.




Table 1
Recent ICAO achievements
Achievement
Description

Study on the safety and security aspects of economic liberalization
To ensure that member-states capture the benefits of liberalization without compromising safety and security, the Secretariat conducted a comprehensive study on the safety and security aspects of economic liberalization. The study identified various situations arising from the liberalization process and the evolution of business and operating practices in the air transport industry which could have implications for safety and security regulation. It also provided clarification on how relevant ICAO provisions should be implemented to address some of these situations. The study highlighted the need for States to fulfill primary regulatory oversight responsibilities for aviation safety and security, regardless of any change in economic regulatory arrangements.

Study on Essential Service and Tourism Development Route (ESTDR) scheme
The ICAO Secretariat published a study, also arising from ATConf/5, on an Essential Service and Tourism
Development Route (ESTDR) scheme. This study was updated with a statistical analysis, examined how essential air services schemes existing in some States have helped support certain specific domestic and regional routes, and how such schemes might be applied in an international context at the discretion of member-states. In cooperation with the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), a support mechanism was developed which could also be used for the development of tourism routes, particularly by the least developed countries.

Study on global quantitative indicators for liberalization.
In response to the request of the 36th Session of the Assembly, the Secretariat completed a study on global quantitative indicators for evaluating the degree of liberalization. This study was subsequently updated and produced three types of indicators to track the development of liberalization in terms of country-pair routes and scheduled
passenger frequencies as well as opportunities created by liberalization and actual utilization

Updating of ICAO policy guidance and databases.
Pursuant to relevant Assembly resolutions, the Secretariat updated the Manual on the Regulation of Air Transport and completed the revision and publication of the Policy and Guidance Material on the Economic Regulation of International Air Transport. The Secretariat also upgraded the Database of the World's Air Services Agreements to an online product with expanded coverage (including text of the bilateral agreements) and search features. In addition, the
Secretariat developed and published on the ICAO website with subsequent updates several databases on air transport regulation such as case studies of liberalization experiences, member-states’ policies on airline ownership and control, regulatory actions on major airline alliances, and lists of government-owned and privatized airlines.



Source: Adapted from Worldwide Air Transportation Conference working paper no. ATConf/6-WP.17, Montréal at 13/12/12https://www.icao.int/Meetings/atconf6/Documents/WorkingPapers/ ATConf6-wp017_en.pdf
Notwithstanding the foregoing noteworthy achievements, the ICAO remains faced with several significant issues that limit its ability to achieve its overarching purpose and these are discussed further below.
Issues
Issue No. 1: Safety and security on international civil air transportation: The extent to which the geopolitical sphere has been influenced by civil aviation practices and procedures became especially pronounced during the second half of the 20th century with respect to aircraft sabotage and hijackings (Jeon, 2010). Although far less common today, aircraft hijackings became especially commonplace during the postwar era in the 1950s as hijackers from Eastern Europe sought to escape the Soviet regime by fleeing to the West where they were welcomed with open arms (Jeon, 2010). By the 1960s, the same forces were at work in the Western hemisphere when disaffected Cubans started hijacking aircraft to the United States and other countries where they believed they could escape punishment for these criminal acts and start a new life (Jeon, 2010).
Official views about aircraft sabotage and hijackings, though, were dramatically changed by the late 1960s and early 1970s when hijackers from Cuba and the Middle East began hijacking aircraft to communist countries (Jeon, 2010). These trends resulted in an especially difficult problem for the ICAO since this organization has the responsibility to ensure the safety and security of the civil aviation network but it remained unclear which nations have the requisite jurisdiction to prosecute these international crimes (i.e., the state where the aircraft was registered, the state where the incident occurred, the state where the flight originated or ended, or the state of which the criminals or victims were citizens) (Jeon, 2010, p. 241).
Following a decision by the ICAO that the member-state in which aircraft were registered had jurisdiction over these types of international crimes, yet another issue emerged that complicated the resolution of this problem even further. In this regard, Jeon (2010) emphasizes that the ICAO was still faced with the problem of “what should it do if the state of the aircraft's final landing refused to extradite the hijackers for political or other reasons?” (p. 242). The need to develop timely and informed answers to this question became even more pronounced during the 1980s when commercial airlines were actually shot out of the skies by the Soviet Union and the United States (as well as some other member-states), resulting in the shut-down of several international air routes and the grounding of commercial aircraft (Jeon, 2010).
Despite the draconian security measures that were adopted by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration and other international air transportation authorities following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, this issue remains a significant concern today. For instance, according to Jeon (2010), “These incidents increased international tensions and put more burdens on ICAO to mediate between the two superpowers. And then there were the 9/11 attacks. All of us who travel by air today continue to be affected by ICAO's response to this new form of terrorism” (p. 243). While this issue may be the most visible problem facing the ICAO today, there are other important issues adversely affecting air travel safety and security, including the lack of definitional clarity for the English terminology used by all international aviation pilots as discussed below.
Issue no. 2: Lack of definitional clarify in the English terminology used by international aviation pilots. There is a lack of definitional clarity with respect to the English terminology used by international pilots at the world’s nearly 18,000 commercial airports (Tan, 2013). For instance, a recent incident involving a KLM jet aircraft found the pilot telling the control tower he was “at takeoff” leaving it unclear whether is about to actually takeoff or was simply positioning the aircraft for takeoff which required scrambling on the part of the air traffic controllers to establish the facts and prevent collisions with other aircraft on the tarmac as well as those landing (Tan, 2013). Likewise, there remains a lack of definition clarity with respect to aviation-related terminology such as “pilot fatigue.”
Issue no. 3: Climate control and aircraft carbon emissions: In response to a growing body of scientific evidence that confirms aircraft emissions represent a significant percentage of the carbon emissions that are exacerbating global warming, the ICAO reluctantly agreed to a carbon offsetting regime in November 2016 (Magini, 2017). Although the ICAO agreement fails to include any provisions for the international civil aviation sector to implement innovative processes to further reduce carbon emissions, many observers believe that it provides the framework that will be needed to effect more meaningful reductions in the future (Magini, 2017). In this regard, Magini reports that, “A few airlines are paving the way (Virgin Atlantic cut its emissions per mile travelled by 22 per cent in ten years), even though the vast majority still see their business as inescapably linked to fossil fuels” (2017, p. 9).
This issue has been further complicated by the recent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Accord that is intended to provide a global framework in which to address carbon emissions, including those caused by civil aviation (Magini, 2017). Since the ICAO’s aviation agreement was specifically intended to complement the Paris Accord, it remains unclear what will happen with other signatories to the Paris Accord after the voluntary compliance period begins in 2021. Some authorities believe that the withdrawal by the United States from the Paris Accord will essentially doom the relevant provisions of the Paris Accord from ever having a substantive effect on aircraft carbon emissions (Magini, 2017). As problematic as this and the other foregoing issues may be for the ICAO, they all take a backseat in terms of complexity to the situation that exists with respect to the civil aviation network in Taiwan today as discussed below.
Issue no. 4: Resolving the formal status of Taiwan in the civil aviation network. A final and especially intractable issue facing the ICAO today is the situation in Taiwan. To date, the ICAO has essentially excluded Taiwan from its membership despite consistent support by the United States for its inclusion in the ICAO assembly (Kao, 2016). With 22 major commercial airports (see Figure 3 below), however, Taiwan is one of the busiest aviation hubs in East Asia today and it is clear Taiwan’s current nebulous status with respect to the ICAO and its member-states needs to be resolved at the earliest opportunity (Kao, 2016). Indeed, administered by Taiwan’s Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA), the Taipei Flight Information Region (FIR) covers 180,000 nautical miles and shares geographic borders with four other FIRs (i.e., Fukuoka, Manila, Hong Kong and Shanghai (Kao, 2016). Moreover, the CAA in Taiwan provided more than one-and-a-half million cases of air traffic control services for 58 million incoming and outgoing passengers in 2015 alone (Kao, 2016).

Figure 3. Major commercial airports in Taiwan
Source: https://www.mapsofworld.com/international-airports/maps/taiwan-airports-map.jpg
Solutions
Issue No. 1: Safety and security on international civil air transportation. Despite its general lack of authority for enforcement, the ICAO remains the organization that is primarily responsible for ensuring the safety and security of international civil air transportation. In this regard, the ICAO Secretariat’s Study on the Safety and Security” emphasizes that, “As the United Nations’ specialized agency responsible for setting international standards for civil aviation, ICAO has been called upon to play a leadership role in developing global strategies for the regulation and oversight of aviation safety and security” (2009, p. 1). At present, however, the safety and security protocols used by ICAO member-states vary widely, and there remains a need for standardization in order to safety this essential ICAO responsibility today.
Issue no. 2: Lack of definitional clarify in the English terminology used by international aviation pilots. There has been some progress made in this area. For example, in response to the need for standard definitions, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration defined “pilot fatigue” in terms of the amount of time pilots were required to remain off duty which in the case of the U.S. was at least 10 hours between shifts (Tan, 2013). Despite growing calls for comparable definitional clarity among the member-states of the ICAO, there also remains a lack of consensus concerning what needs to be done. To its credit, however, an ICAO task force has defined the antecedent causes of pilot fatigue as well as the primary consequences of pilot fatigue on safety and performance (Nunes & Cabon, 2015). Further efforts in this area, though, are needed to ensure that the aviation lingua franca serves the purpose for which it is intended.
Issue no. 3: Climate control and aircraft carbon emissions. Although the ICAO can play an important advisory role in helping member-states effect reductions in carbon emissions, this issue is among those over which the organization has little or no authority to actually enforce any changes in the status quo.
Issue no. 4: Resolving the formal status of Taiwan in the civil aviation network. Notwithstanding the political ramifications that are involved in the Taiwan-China dispute, there are some factors involved in this issue that could be used to encourage acceptance of Taiwan among the ICAO’s membership. For example, Kao (2016) emphasizes that, “Taiwan’s safety and navigation technologies could be useful to ICAO members” and “Taiwan needs to be part of ICAO because it is an indispensable player in global aviation safety” (p. 4). Taken together, these factors clearly outweigh any transient political problems that remain between Taiwan and China.



References
About ICAO. (2017). International Civil Aviation Organization. Retrieved from https://www. icao.int/about-icao/Pages/default.aspx.
Agency appropriations for fiscal year 1978. (1977). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
History of the ICAO. (2017). International Civil Aviation Organization. Retrieved from https://www.icao.int/secretariat/TechnicalCooperation/Pages/history.aspx.
Jeon, C. (2010, Winter). ICAO. International Journal, 66(1), 239-244.
Kao, S. (2016, September 21). Taiwan to ICAO: Let us in. Aviation Week. Retrieved from http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/taiwan-icao-let-us.
Magrini, M. (2017, September). Grounded: Geographical's regular look at the world of climate change. The future of civil aviation. Geographical, 89(9), 9.
Nunes, A. & Cabon, P. (2015, May/June). The fatigue conundrum. American Scientist, 103(3), 218-222.
Safety and security aspects of economic liberalization. (2009). International Civil Aviation Organization. Retrieved from https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/ SafetySecurityStudy_en.pdf.
Wang, S. (2016, June 24). The untapped potential of Latin American air travel: Existing problems and solutions for a better future. Washington Report on the Hemisphere, 36(9), 6-10.
Worldwide Air Transportation Conference working paper no. ATConf/6-WP.17, Montréal. International Civil Aviation Organization. Retrieved from https://www.icao.int/Meetings/ atconf6/Documents/WorkingPapers/ ATConf6-wp017_en.pdf.
Appendix A
Member-states of the ICAO (*=Council Member State)
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria*
Andorra
Angola
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina*
Armenia
Australia*
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bhutan
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Botswana
Brazil*
Brunei Darussalam
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cabo Verde*
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada*
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China*
Colombia*
Comoros
Congo*
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba*
Cyprus
Czechia
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominican Republic
Ecuador*
Egypt*
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Fiji
Finland
France*
Gabon
Gambia
Georgia
Germany*
Ghana
Greece
Grenada
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hungary
Iceland
India*
Indonesia
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Iraq
Ireland*
Israel
Italy*
Jamaica
Japan*
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kenya*
Kiribati
Kuwait
Kyrgyzstan
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Latvia
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia*
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico*
Micronesia (Federated States of)
Monaco
Mongolia
Montenegro
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Nauru
Nepal
Netherlands
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria*
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Panama*
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Republic of Korea*
Republic of Moldova
Romania
Russian Federation*
Rwanda
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Samoa
San Marino
Sao Tome and Principe
Saudi Arabia*
Senegal
Serbia
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore*
Slovakia
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Africa*
South Sudan
Spain*
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Sweden*
Switzerland
Syrian Arab Republic
Tajikistan
Thailand
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Timor-Leste
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey*
Turkmenistan
Tuvalu
Uganda
Ukraine
United Arab Emirates*
United Kingdom*
United Republic of Tanzania*
United States*
Uruguay*
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
Viet Nam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe