Intelligence: exploration of core conceptual questions

Intelligence... choose either of the 3 questions you wish

What must be done to improve the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) process?

"National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the IC's [intelligence community's] most authoritative written judgments on national security issues. NIEs usually provide information on the likely course of future events and highlight the implications for U.S. policymakers.[footnoteRef:1]" the process of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) begins when "senior civilian and military policymakers" request an NIE on a particular topic.[footnoteRef:2] the NIC consults the sixteen Intelligence Council (IC) members. They draft a concept paper for 'terms of reference' (TOR) "The TOR defines the key estimative questions, determines drafting responsibilities, and sets the drafting and publication schedule" of the final product.[footnoteRef:3] the composition of the final report is a coordinated effort amongst a variety of agencies and every line is reviewed to ensure accuracy and precision of results. Quality of sources is reviewed in terms of whether to include each point of information and how much weight to assign it. Finally, "the National Intelligence Board, comprised of the directors of all 16 intelligence agencies, reviews and approves the document. The NIC then distributes the NIE to key policymakers in both the executive and legislative branches."[footnoteRef:4] [1: Eric Rosenbach, "National Intelligence Estimates." Belfer Center. [12 May 2013] http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19150/national_intelligence_estimates.html] [2: Rosenbach, 2009] [3: Rosenbach, 2009] [4: Rosenbach, 2009]

Despite the apparent thoroughness of this process, a number of flaws exist within the structure of drafting such intelligence reports. The first is that the extensive coordination of different personnel that is required to amass the report can lead to delays and sometimes eventual product is no longer useful because the information is no longer needed by the policy-makers. Urgency and an expedited review process, however, can also lead to errors. "Per Congress's request in the fall of 2002, the IC rushed to complete the NIE on Iraq's WMD programs in less than a month" with devastating results, of which the fallout is still being felt.[footnoteRef:5] the coordination required to produce a document also is problematic given the hostilities which exist between different agencies. This can result in gridlock or groupthink, depending on the parties involved. [5: Rosenbach, 2009]

A more serious allegation is the politicization of the intelligence-gathering process. This was particularly noteworthy during the debriefings after the Iraq War, in which Democrats accused the Bush Administration of deliberately fabricating a threat from Iraq to justify the invasion and divert attention away from the Administration's failures in Afghanistan and its mismanagement of the economy. However, both Democratic and Republicans alike have been accused of playing politics with the process. "IC accusation of politicization surfaced after the key judgments of NIEs on the ballistic missile threat to the United Sates changed between 1993 and 1995. Some Republicans claimed the IC politicized the findings to support President Clinton's policy against missile defense systems.[footnoteRef:6]" [6: Rosenbach, 2009]