Russia and Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

To understand the Russia / Ukraine Conflict one must understand how the fall of the Soviet Union created a power vacuum in both Russia and the former Soviet satellite states.  Both Russia and Ukraine were looted by mob-connected businessmen during the 1990s.  The oligarchs in Russia used their influence and money to privatize industries and amass great personal wealth.  When Putin came to power, he insisted that the oligarchs stay out of politics.  Berezovsky fled to UK, sponsored a color revolution in Ukraine to prevent the Putin-backed politician from winning, and opened the door for the West to gain influence in the region.  Since that time, the West has pushed for NATO expansion in a power-play to prevent Russia from gaining greater leverage over Europe.  Russia has indicated that it will not abide NATO expansion into its own backyard.  Thus, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is an attempt by Putin to take back, once and for all, control of Ukraine so that it will not fall into the permanent hands of the West.

Main Title:

How Putin’s Position on the Russian Oligarch Berezovsky Led Ultimately to the Russian / Ukraine Conflict

Introduction:

To understand the Russian-Ukraine Conflict of 2022 in context, one has to really understand the rise of Putin and his stance against the oligarch Boris Berezovsky.  It is Berezovsky who sponsored the color revolution that turned Ukraine into a Western puppet-state.  It is Berezovsky who had been chased out of Russia by Putin.  It is Berezovsky who, along with the Yeltsin family, hand-picked Putin for the most powerful post in Russian politics.  The story of the Russian-Ukraine Conflict is the story of the conflict between these two powerful men.  As with any larger-than-life story, it is complicated by numerous factors that this paper will attempt to explain.

Thesis Statement:

The conflict in Ukraine is the result of oligarchs and political powers vying for control of a state that stands between Russia and the West—a state that represents the last red line between peace and WW3.

Body of Paper:

Putin’s Rise to Power

Putin came to power in Russia as a result of a political complication faced by Boris Yeltsin at the end of the 1990s.  Russia was a in a state of collapse and Yeltsin’s popularity was not high enough to ensure a victory in the upcoming election.  The Yeltsins and the so-called “Godfather of the Kremlin,” the oligarch Boris Berezovsky, chose Putin to take over the Kremlin and fill in for Yeltsin in the upcoming election (Klebnikov, 2000; Mezrich, 2015).  Putin quickly became the popular choice among voters—and won the election.

However, Putin did not act as the political puppet that Berezovsky hoped or assumed he would be.  Quite the contrary, Putin now turned on the “godfather” and postured as a staunch Russian nationalist.  He stood before the cameras and described how he was fed up with the lawlessness that had taken hold of the state over the past few years.  He said that he would now hold the looters and scoundrels accountable for their actions.  Putin essentially told Russia that he would hold the oligarchs responsible for their crimes against the state in the 1990s.  The Russian public celebrated (BBC, 2012).  

Privately, Putin told the oligarchs that they could keep their ill-gotten wealth but that they must forevermore stay out of politics (Mezrich, 2015). For Berezovsky, political power had meant everything.  He had risen through the corrupt auto industry, had gained influence in Yeltsin’s family, and had taken over Russia’s state television network.  Now it was all being taken away from him.  From the Kremlin he had been able to win friends and influence people at the highest levels.  Other oligarchs, like Roman Abramovich, came to him for help.  Now Berezovsky was being shown the door by the very man he helped put into power.

Berezovsky in Exile

Now out of favor in the Kremlin, Berezovsky fled to UK and plotted his revenge (BBC, 2012).  To overthrow Putin was his stated goal.  He envisioned himself as returning at some point to Russia and taking back his position of power.  But first he needed to set a plan in motion that would ultimately erode Putin’s credibility and support.  In short, Berezovsky needed to start a war with Russia.

To start a war is no simple task and it can take years to set the gears in motion.  But Berezovsky had no other preoccupation.  He turned to friends in the US and Israel for support in taking out the Russian-friendly president of Ukraine and installing an anti-Russia leader.  Ukraine was now the target and would be used in the exiled oligarch’s plot to remove Putin from power.  From England, Berezovsky directed his plan, using the media and what remained of his money and clout to execute his plan.

Ukraine had announced its sovereignty and independence in 1990-91 after the Berlin Wall fell and Communism collapsed.  The Russian-friendly Leonid Kuchma won just over half the vote in 1994, but corruption in the Ukraine mirrored that in Russia in the 1990s, as the looting of the state transpired and the looters became oligarchs.  Inflation, crime, and gangsterism prevailed; strikes and protests occurred, and the need for a genuine leader was felt by all.  Kuchma himself was accused of corruption.  It was into this pool of acrimony that Berezovsky waded.  He meant to turn Ukraine away from Russia toward the West, where he had made new allies in his dream of bringing down Putin.

The Color Revolution

The Orange Revolution of 2004 was the result of Berezovsky-and-friends fomenting protests over the Ukrainian election of that year.  The protests led to a re-vote and the election of the oligarch’s candidate Viktor Yushchenko.  In the initial counting of the votes, the Kuchma-backed candidate Viktor Yanukovych appeared to have won.  Berezovsky and friends sprang into action and fueled the protests in Kiev, which lasted into 2005.  The state felt pressured into acting, and so declared no confidence in the initial vote.  The re-vote delivered the outcome Berezovsky and friends desired.  Ukraine would now no longer be under the thumb of Russia but rather under the thumb of Berezovsky and his Western and Israeli allies.

However, the color revolution only helped to divide the Ukraine public.  In south and east Ukraine, the people were skeptical of and cynical about the Orange Revolution, believing it to be the result of foreign meddling.  In west and north Ukraine, the public was more accepting of the Orange Revolution.

In other words, the color revolution revealed the political division inherent in Ukraine:  West Ukraine looked to the West for support; East Ukraine looked to Russia.  The lines were drawn.

Yet, the Berezovsky-backed president Viktor Yushchenko soon fell out of favor with the public, and in 2010 Yanukovych was elected president.  Berezovsky and friends once more sprang into action.  Yanukovych was accused of being too pro-Putin and not nearly pro-EU enough.  Protests returned and soon Ukraine was in a state of civil war.  Yanukovych fled through Crimea to Russia.  Fighting in East Ukraine intensified, and Russia, following on the expressed desire of the Crimean populace, annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Ukraine would continue to be a divided mess of a nation, but the influence of Berezovsky in the region would not be felt much longer—as he would be found dead from hanging in a bathroom on his estate in UK in 2013.  Nonetheless, the fighting was now in full force.

Since 2014, the separatist rebels of East Ukraine have continued to fight against a Ukrainian government that they see as anti-Russian.  Western leaders, moreover, have taken up the torch left behind by Berezovsky; they have tried to pry Ukraine from Russia’s grip since that time as well.  NATO expansion has been part of that plan—and Russia has long denounced this expansion.  But the West has also been concerned about Russia’s energy dominance in Europe and its close ties with China in recent years.  The West (especially the US) fears a multipolar world in which the US dollar no longer has reserve currency status.  Should the US lose the power that its currency affords it, the American empire would quickly fall.

While some have called for a “great reset” to the world order, certain leaders in the US know that such a reset would be disastrous for American exceptionalism—unless the “reset” allows them to maintain hegemony.  Russia and China are, meanwhile, expanding their influence in spheres of the globe where American sanctions have left economies and governments in dire straits.  Ukraine is a chess piece in the US-led plan for Russian containment—an anti-Putin policy started by Berezovsky two decades ago.  

Russian Red Lines and the Expansion of NATO

It’s no secret that the US wants to use Ukraine as a missile-launch base, similar to the way the Soviet Union appeared to want to turn Cuba into a missile-launch base in the early 1960s.  The Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear war—and now the Russia-Ukraine crisis is threatening to do the same.  Putin has already given the order to put Russia’s nuclear weapons on alert should the West decide to intervene more overtly in the conflict in Ukraine (Roth et al., 2022).

Russia has for years tried to prevent US-led NATO from expanding closer and closer to its borders.  The risk of Ukraine joining NATO is especially alarming for Russia, since it is a NATO principle that if one NATO-member state is attacked, they must all consider themselves attacked.  Should Ukraine join NATO, Russia would essentially see a US-European military strike force standing on its back porch.  America didn’t like it when Soviet missiles were spotted in Cuba.  Russia doesn’t like it that NATO wants to put missiles in Ukraine.

Thus, NATO expansion has been a redline for Russia—and now Putin has decided that enough is enough.  He has attempted to have talks with Western leaders about the seriousness of Russian redlines, but time and again Western leaders have responded with a lack of care for Russia’s concerns.  

Attack

Putin decided to invade Ukraine in early 2022 to address both the war on the ethnic Russians in the Donbas (East Ukraine) and the problem of Western-influence in West Ukraine.  Putin did not want to wait any longer on the matter of NATO expansion.  He determined that the only solution that the West would understand would be a military one.

The invasion proceeded swiftly, with the Russian goal being to capture Ukraine with minimal destruction to civilian infrastructure or loss of civilian lives.  The invasion could not be any different from the US invasion of Iraq for that reason:  whereas the US invaded Iraq with maximum destruction, Russia has for the time being sought to preserve the state’s infrastructure as much as possible.  This is a sign that Russia has no ill will toward Ukrainians; its only object is to remove the Western puppet government and install leaders that are friendlier to Russia.

So far the outcome of this conflict is unknown.  Russia is currently laying siege to Kiev, the capitol of Ukraine.  The West has countered with economic sanctions—like kicking Russia out of SWIFT, the financial messaging system that facilitates international banking transactions.  Yet JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon has questioned whether such economic sanctions are smart, as they may hurt other nations and central banks; some commentators also have concerns that such moves will only push Russia to abandon the US dollar altogether and may inspire other nations to do the same.  That could lead to the kind of “great reset” that could devastate America in the long run (Levitt, 2022).

In financial markets, cryptocurrencies are rising as an alternative to state-issued cash.  The Kremlin is looking to stabilize its own markets when they do reopen for trading.  Right now cash exports of over $10k are banned in Russia to prevent capital flight.  The world is watching as the economic repercussions of the West’s sanctions against Russia play out in real time.  With energy prices soaring (oil at $100 a barrel), no one knows how extreme conditions will get or whether populaces all over the world will revolt, whether governments will panic, and whether all hell will indeed break loose. 

The Western World Order in Peril?

Thus, the big question is to what extent the Russia-Ukraine conflict represents a major threat to the Western world order.  The West has clearly provoked Russia to act in this manner.  Putin is not known to be a leader who bluffs and postures:  if he announces a red line, he means it.  The West has ignored his warning and pushed ahead with prying Ukraine away from Russia and bringing it under the thumb of the EU and NATO.  Now Kiev is under siege, and Western countries have turned against Russia, cutting it off from the international economic and financial markets to a large degree.  The Russian Ruble has cratered in recent days and the Russian stock market has sold off.  Russians are trying to get money out of their banks and into other currencies as fast as they can.  Those old enough to remember the hyper-inflation of the 1990s know how fast one can lose one’s savings.  So in Russia there is a great deal of fear and concern.  It appears that Berezovsky’s plan to get back at Putin may finally be paying off:  if the Russian people turn against Putin because they see their wealth evaporating and their lives upturned as a result of this conflict in Ukraine, Putin may be chased from power—just what the now-deceased oligarch wanted all along.

But what if the people do not turn against Putin?  What if they continue to support him?  What if they are convinced, as he is, that the West is beyond reasoning with, that war is inevitable, and that the world is not worth preserving if Russia can have no part to play in it?  Russia appears to be willing to go the whole mile.  Those calling for a “Great Reset” may get their wish if the West via NATO and the EU decide to engage in a direct hot war with Russia.  WW3 could erupt in spectacular fashion and bring the current economic, political, and social world system crashing down.