Terrorism: causes, effects, and counterterrorism strategies

Terrorism

Assess the likelihood of a terrorist group use of CBRN weapons

There is a high and rising probability of the usage of the chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear -CBRN weapons by majority of terrorists even though certain established terrorist groups are expected to remain restricted by such aspects like being alien to the weapon and its dubious political usefulness. The possible danger caused by CBRN weapons in the hands of terrorists is observed with increasing anxiety by both government and society following the current highly destructive terrorist events. Al-Qaeda and other concerned terrorist gangs persist to show their knack in large-scale killing of human beings through the use of CBRN i.e. chemical, radiological and nuclear arsenals.

Renowned persons in the U.S., has been expressive in their claim that a terrorist CBRN assault is looming. Bill Clinton, President of the United States declared in a January 1999 featured writing in the New York Times that there are increased chances that a terrorist gang would unleash a chemical weapon in the land of America in the coming few years. Senator Sam Nunn declared that the danger of terrorist assault on the cities of America through CBRN has attained a stage where a daring and strong endeavor is necessary. This is an obvious and current threat to the American citizens that needs an opportune reaction. According to FBI Director Louis Freeh who stated in 1997 purchase, propagation, endangered or real use of weapons of mass destruction -WMD by a terrorist gang or persons constitutes one of the serious dangers to the United States. Richard Lugar -the Presidential candidate took a sequence of costly television spots during the year 1999 to exhibit the serious danger caused by nuclear terrorism.

The most common flourishing agents caught in inquiries are the biological toxin ricin and the bacterial agent anthrax. In the year 2000, 90 of II 5 biological intimidations examined by the FBI warned about the use of anthrax. Of specific worry is the surfacing of groups, such as apocalyptic religious cults, right-wing extremists, and ad-hoc extremist Islamic groups. There has also been information of fresh or revived curiosity by a number of established international terrorist groups that includes the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hizballah, the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA), Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Sikh and Chechen terrorists, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Khmer Rouge, and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

The arrival of the CBRN assaults has been informed by the terrorists. During the year1998, Nasser Asad Al-Tamini belonging to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad spoke in a veiled manner regarding his gang's possible use of biological weapons. Ramzi Ahmed Yousef might have tried to get hold of chemical weapons before the 1993 World Trade Centre bomb attacks. Aum Shinrikyo gang belonging to Shoko Asahara evidently did not have any trouble unleashing chemical agents if their sarin attacks in Tokyo in 1995 are any indication to this effect. In the United States right-wing gangs like the Minnesota Patriots Council and the Covenant, the Sword, and the Arm of the Lord that has initiated self-determining assaults by non-allied individuals like that by the Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City have amply exhibited that terrorist's use of the CBRN is likely.

Bin Laden who was alleged to be the key person behind the Sept. 11 attacks, expressed in open addresses that in his opinion it is a devout responsibility to purchase Weapons of Mass Destruction. An ex-CIA official announced that Al Qaeda was putting a great deal of efforts to acquire biological weapons. Facts point out that Al Qaeda put a refined proposal to make Weapons of Mass Destruction especially biological, declared Vincent Cannistraro, who was the chief of CIA antiterrorism action during the later part of 1990s. The attempts by global and local terrorists to get hold of WMD continues to be a major anxiety and main concern of the FBI as there is the possibility for wreaking extensive damage or fatality. Brian Michael Jetkins' warning to contemplate widely however concurrently apply prudence while evading the fine change of act from 'could to may occur' at the time of talking about the possible use of CBRN by the terrorists appears wise counsel for every prognostic researchers endeavoring to find out if traditional or CBRN assaults are more likely to happen.

2) Describe some of the possible effects of Chemical Biological, Radioactive and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons used by terrorist

The extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and its subsidiaries have wide choice of prospective mediums and delivery agents for facilitating chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear-CBRN attacks. The objective of various terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda is to utilize various chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons with a view to causing massacre. These instruments are capable of exerting widespread terror and cause mass casualties when applied in multiple simultaneous attacks. Many factors along with the technical expertise of those involved determine the success of the attempts of al-Qaeda and the number of potential mass causalities. However, most of the circumstances results in panic and disruption. The strategy of Al Qaeda to involve chemical weapons in their ensuing attacks were first brought out in a document obtained in summer 2002 which indicates that the group has rudimentary procedures for creating mustard agent, sarin and VX. The mustard is thought to be a blistering agent while the sarin and VX are taken to be the nerve agents that kill the humans in small amounts.

The radiological diffusion instrument normally used by terrorists has tremendous effects on health, environment and economy along with its political and social influences. The materials used by the terrorists for preparation of such type of explosives include, cesium-137, strontium-90 and cobalt-60- materials used in hospitals, universities, factories, construction companies and laboratories. Biological mediums available to al Qaeda for use include anthrax, a form of bacteria that can cause mass casualties, and botulinum toxin. The CIA emphasized that the instruments for producing botulinum have been identified in the manuals of the terrorists. The widely used pollutant weapon, ricin, is prepared from the common castor beans. There is no healing to the ricin poisoning once the toxin infuses into the bloodstream. The terrorists attempt to infuse ricin poisoning in foods and as a contact poison. However, there is no scientific evidence to prove that ricin can be infused into the intact skin.

The subsidiary agencies of al-Qaeda with several groups of mujahidin have tried to carryout 'poison plot' attacks in Europe with easily produced chemicals and toxins considered more appropriate for assassination and small scale attacks. Such agents exert mass annihilation and widespread panic when applied in multiple and simultaneous attacks. The biological warfare is propagated by the spray agents those have the highest potential impact. Mohammad Atta and Zacharias Moussaoui the leaders of September 11 have conveyed their inclination towards the use of crop dusters, increasing the concern for the aircraft to disseminate BW agents. The terrorists are inclined towards the use of several pollutant cyanide compounds. Applying the sodium or potassium cyanides, the white to pale yellow salts the food or drinks can easily be poisoned. The cyanide salts can easily be applied as a contact poison in combination with the chemicals for increasing skin infusion.

However, this may easily be detected in arousing suspicion among the people when they touch wet or greasy surfaces infected with the solution. The effectiveness of both Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and cyanogens chloride is required to be released at a high concentration. This is possible only in case of an enclosed area. Hence, leaving the area or allowing scope for ventilation will considerably reduce the lethality of the agent. The exposure to cyanide results in nausea, vomiting, palpitations, confusion, hyperventilation, anxiety and vertigo that may lead to agitation, stupor, coma and death. The cyanides with high quantity result in immediate collapse. There medical treatment for such cases are also exists but required to be administered instantly in case of intensely affected victims. The skin contact with mustard at the beginning results in mild provocation of the skin and develops to be more severe yellow fluid-filled blisters.

Inhalation of mustard harms the lungs, poses hard to breathing, and death by suffocation in aggravated cases due to water formation in the lungs. The medication available for the sufferings from mustard-agent poisoning is considered to be very limited. The reactions of nerve agents include pinpoint pupils, salivation, and convulsions that may be fatal. The bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, causing anthrax is capable of exerting mass casualties. The symptoms in this case occur within one to six days after exposure and inclusive of fever, malaise, fatigue and shortness of breath. None seems to be inoculated against anthrax. The Botulinum toxin are considered efficient in case of small scale poisonings or vaporising attacks in confined localities like movie theatres etc. The toxin molecule is however seen to be much larger for being capable of infused into the intact skin.

3) of what value would CBRN weapons be for the terrorist?

Among the strong points of CBRN assaults indicates that they are awful to think about and to endure, rendering them a perfect tool of threat. They are assured to acquire attention of the media, provided right ascription of the support of the occurrence. Further, a good protection against these dangers is very hard and costly; it will continue to be as such. A lot of the know-how linked with the buildup of the CBRN weapons-particularly chemical and biological agents possess genuine use in civilians and are categorized as twofold use. The widespread reach of this know-how, together with the comparative effortlessness of manufacturing several chemical or biological agents, renders them alluring to terrorist gangs aiming to unleash fear or causing huge number of fatalities. Terrorists have observed the strong psychological effect brought about by the current anthrax incidents in our nation of late that produces their importance to go up. Jessica Stern reasons that vengeance, spell of fear, revenge, motivational alterations, increase and accessibility, and superior indulgence of the manner in which to build up and use CBRN weapons will soon result in their extended use; to her, threat is the tool of the terrorist for attaining control, and for that cause CBRN weapons are smart for instantaneous utilization.

The objectives that lead a group to resort to embark upon the CBRN warfare include the following: the organization exhibits their enthusiasm to involve in high risks in its warfare; the organization that does not look upon the violence as a mode of reforming or preserving a prevailing political system, rather completely destroying such a system exerting mass casualties; the unstructured system that the group considered conducive for CBRN warfare. Bruce Hoffman, the expert in terrorism, opined the pious groups are the most probable candidates to carryout CBRN terrorism since they are activists instantly and constituents engaged in an activity that they visualize as the total war. Moreover, the terrorist acts are implemented for their own audience or constituency. In this way the regulations on catastrophic violence, exerted upon the secular terrorist that desire to appeal to a larger audience are not appropriate for the pious terrorist. In terms of the significant factors of motivation, the leaders those are prone to resort to CBRN warfare are propelled by adequate power to propel their groups into the international arena as technological destroyers and menaces of the first order of magnitude.

In order to attain the capability for initiating the CBRN warfare, some of the present day terrorist leader particularly in al Qaeda, are seen to be more highly educated, sophisticated and ambitious rather than their predecessors more particularly in the technological, engineering and scientific realms. Such educational and professional settings assist them in carrying out their missions with more intensity of sophistication, systematization, innovation and lethal in comparison to the previous acts of terrorism. The accelerators and triggers are the most probable contextual factors or 'circumstances' to induce a group to use CBRN. In the perspective of CBRN, accelerators are taken to be the technical enablers that assist in an organization with the provision of enough scope to acquire CBRN weapons and devices. The illustrations may incorporate the successful deployment of experts on CBRN associated skills, accessibility to the CBRN agents, weapons, devices through members those are students, research scientists, engineers, successful identification of the biological precursor agents, like the Ebola virus success in acquiring CBRN devices and acquisition of markets through foreign black and grey markets.

The abrupt events are regarded as the activations that rush the implementation of the plans by the organization to resort to CBRN warfare. The illustrations of activation may incorporate a delicate sense of imminent threat. Thus in a propaganda of the group references are made on the decisions to use extremely destructive means and devices that the enemy is designing to use against it. It is evident in the pronouncements of an organization advocating a millenarian, apocalyptic or messianic ideology about the onset of the millennia or messiah that the violence is resorted to make the arrival of the new millennium or the arrival of a messiah quicker. Extreme government retribution or attack brings a group to become desperately carry out maintaining its independent existence with the resort to CBRN warfare as the only remaining alternative in its view.

4) Briefing national policy makers, list the principal terrorist threats in terms of groups or specific operations

The struggle against terrorism in all its types and safeguarding against the assaults of the range of potential weaponry terrorists are considered to be a matter of great concern for the U.S. governments. Taking into consideration the empirical significance of the lenient environments in making available the technical capacity essential for terrorist groups to search and utilize unconventional weapons, the part played by states is considered crucial. Provoked by political or religious values, slackly affiliated rebels, may cause the most insistent danger to the United States. Sunni Islamic extremists, like Osama bin Laden and persons affiliated with his Al-Qaeda organization have confirmed an eagerness and capacity to perform attacks resulting in major fatalities and demolition against U.S. citizens, services, and interests, as confirmed by the August 1998 bombings of U.S. Embassies in East Africa. Al-Qaeda is a well structured and sponsored criminal network comprised of planned, hierarchical cells in many countries around the world. The potentialities of Al Qaeda threat was evident from the September 11 assaults and the sequential attacks of Al Qaeda or Al Qaeda associates ranging from Bali to Mombassa, and Riyadh to Casablanca.

But the warning from Al-Qaeda is only a fraction of the overall threat from the radical international jihad movement. In this movement there are many people from different nationalities, ethnic groups, tribes, races and terrorist group members who work together in support of extremist Sunni goals. The elimination of U.S. military forces from the Persian Gulf area, mainly from Saudi Arabia, is the main aim of the Sunni. The only common aspect among these varied individuals is their loyalty to the radial international jihad movement, which includes a radicalized philosophy and program for endorsing the use of violence against the 'enemies of Islam' in order to depose all governments which are not ruled by Sharia, or conservative Islamic law. A chief deliberate aim of this movement is the setting up and execution of comprehensive, prestigious, high-casualty terrorist attacks against U.S. interests and citizens and those of our associates, globally.

The second type of international terrorist threat is made up of proper terrorist organizations. These self-governing, international organizations have their own infrastructures, workforce, monetary preparations, and training amenities. These organizations are competent of preparing and increasing terrorist movements on a global basis. These organizations preserve operations and support networks in the United States. For instance, extremist groups like the Palestinian Hamas, the Irish Republican Army, the Egyptian Al-Gama Al-Islamiyya, and the Lebanese Hizballah have a company in the United States whose associates are mainly occupied in fund-raising, employing, and low-level intelligence collection. The third group of the international terrorist warning is involved of state sponsors of terrorism, or countries that observe terrorism as a means of foreign policy. Currently, the Department of State has listed seven countries as state sponsors of terrorism: Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, Syria, Cuba, and North Korea. Out of these, Iran poses the utmost terrorist threat to the United States.

The present domestic terrorist threat mainly comes from right-wing extremist groups, left wing and Puerto Rican extremist groups, and special interest extremists. Usually the fight-wing terrorist groups stick on to the ideology of racial supremacy and embrace antigovernment, anti-regulatory beliefs. On the national level, formal right wing abhor groups, such as World Church of the Creator -WCOTC and the Aryan Nations, characterize an enduring terrorist threat. Left-wings groups, the second group of domestic terrorists, usually confess a revolutionary socialist policy and consider themselves as defenders of the people against the brutal results of capitalism and imperialism. They seek to bring alteration in the United States through revolution rather than through the customary political process. The conventional right wing and left wing terrorism vary from special interest terrorism and the special interest groups try to solve definite issues, rather than cause more extensive political change. Special interest extremists carry on to do their acts of politically motivated violence to influence section of society, including, the ordinary people, to change their outlook about matters regarded as essential to their causes.

5) Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the intelligence system for dealing with terrorism.

In struggling with international terrorism, the role played by over 40 separate departments, agencies and bureaus within the U.S. Government, like State Department, Department of Defense, CIA, FBI and the Department of Justice, are considered very crucial. Other less significant agencies like Department of Transportation, Office of Management and Budget, General Accounting Office, and Treasury Department. Irrespective of the fact that all departments and agencies associated with such combating measures in the process depends upon varied definitions of terrorism, the leading and participating agencies visualize the definition of others and therefore have the same terms of reference and understanding. The efficacy of the policy of U.S. Government and strategy for combating terrorism is influenced by the benefits of small departmental budgets. The interagency strategy on anti-terrorism is considered efficient as a result of the association of small number of participant.

The personnel of Special Forces are uniquely qualified to address the varied unconventional threat confronted presently by the United States. Generally, the personnel of Special Forces those have been fostered and cultivated by the intelligence networks are guided by their own unit-specific inventiveness and mission requirements. However, their collection capabilities have improved considerably over the period of time and experience. Consequently, the varied national level intelligence agencies have shielded themselves to turn into Special Forces intelligence operations that were initially designed for collection of strategic human intelligence.

Both the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Central Intelligence Agency is suffering from the impediments exerted by the bureaucratic and cultural obstacles in obtaining the terrorist information. Additionally, the United States intelligence and law enforcement agencies are deficient of the prioritizing, translating and understanding in a timely fashion all of the information to which they have access. It is critical of the fact that too much intelligence is reformed to narrow down the tactical matters. There is no adequate continuance in terms of big portrait and tactical issues, the larger dimensions of American national security and this is a great loss for the country.

During the 1960s, U.S. surveillance concentrated on the danger of the Soviet Union, the chances of war in Western Europe, and backup for the persisting clashes in Southeast Asia. These dangers formed the manner in which information was gathered and examined by the various associates of the intelligence community-IC. Following the initial stages of 1990, the main danger to the United States transferred from the Soviet Union to terrorism. Nevertheless, the infrastructure to gathering of information and examination was not shifted and even has not altered from its Cold War origins. The extremely crucial restrictions in national intelligence are an insufficient ability to share information and the dearth of human intelligence- HUMINT. Restrictions of the IC exceed the strategies and choice of any governance, even though resource and policy limitations forced during the middle part of 1990s worsened a mounting disaster in the capability of the IC to give efficient strategic intelligence. The ratification of the U.S.A. PATRIOT Act was a significant part to the fight on terrorism, making possible sharing of information among the intelligence and law enforcement unity. Significant enterprise has been taken up by the Bush Administration for bettering the sharing of information by the enactment of the Terrorist Threat Integration Center- TTIC and Terrorist Screening Centre- TSC. The coming into being of the Department of Homeland Security-DHS as a successful member of the IC is crucial to achievement in the battle on terrorism.

The present IC continues to be split having a lot of agencies, has the absence of the capability to efficiently unify and systematize its functioning, and do not have the correct equilibrium of compilation and investigative assets to fulfill the intelligence requirements of the 21st century. Changes and extra resources are required. Strategic intelligence is not the only answer for triumph on the battle on terrorism. Neither can every area be reached through Strategic intelligence nor can every uncertainty be solved. We require greater abstemious hopes of what good intelligence can generate. Whereas the danger of international terrorism was extensively identified by the IC and rule devisers, almost no ventures was taken to deal with the entrenched demerits in U.S. strategic intelligence which rendered it a suitable tool for fulfilling this danger. Even though the dangers of terrorist was recognized and comprehended in the 1990s, investment on national safety was reduced during that decade that impacted antiterrorism and intelligence.

6) List and explain what targets a terrorist leader is likely to attack for maximum effectiveness

In today's modern life, terrorism has become a part of it. Hijackings, bombings, and assassinations on different continents of the world may look like separate attacks, but they reveal an easy confidence on violence as a way to support social, political, and religious change. They are rudiments of an all-encompassing end and substantiate the means philosophy being pursued to its most vicious conclusions. The following are the target of the terrorists: Government buildings, military bases, weapons, ships, airplanes, trains, bridges, and tunnels; Government officials, soldiers, police, and diplomats; Banks and the security and electronic transmission of currency; Symbolic public monuments; Business headquarters, personnel, and factories; Civilian crowds, events, ships, airplanes, trains, cars, and resorts; Electric power plants -most dangerously, nuclear power plants, dams, and grids; Water supplies and pipelines; Communication stations and towers; and Computers and computer networks.

There are also other factors in choosing targets like: The high degree of shock in the attack, creating fright and paralysis; the drama of the attack, creating fear and mania; the accessibility of media to broadcast the attack, creating enduring effects; the extent of the attack, causing the increase of the terrorists power; and the facility to replicate the attacks, causing endemic insecurity. There are two types of targets like targets of opportunity or strategic targets. Most of the recent continuous terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Morocco belong to the targets of opportunity, as they are moderately gentle and easy to attack. But the terrorist attack like the 9/11's attacks against the World Trade Center's twin towers and the Pentagon, and March 2004's attack on the Madrid's railway station, which motivated the Spanish election and its policy concerning Iraq are of the strategic type. Though the strategic targets like the World Trade Center are complex to attack, they are appealing to terrorist groups because their damage creates disastrous harm to the more influential adversary and at the same time results in international exposure and additional pools of workforce.

This is not projected to be a stiff dichotomy between targets of opportunity and strategic targets because, for instance, while many of al Qaeda's attacks in Iraq or Saudi Arabia may be supposed as going after soft targets, but collectively they are of the 'strategic' variety in the sense that by aiming vital sectors in the country's important infrastructure, such as oil workers in Saudi Arabia or political leaders in Iraq, such violence is proposed to damage the well-being of Saudi Arabia's oil economy or the U.S.-led renovation effort in Iraq. The groups of strategic and opportunity strategies and tactics can be further classified into two extra types of terrorist strategies and tactics. These are the personal initiative attacks, in which the invaders act alone and are motivated by personal injustice and organized or mega attacks, which take longer time to plan, arrange and carry out. In suicide terrorism a few loners are concerned and these attacks are usually prearranged.