Nuclear terrorism and the threat of clandestine attacks on the United States

Terrorism

If a significant terrorist attack was to occur within the United States of America, it would involve the use of weapons of mass destruction. Although the term weapons of mass destruction has become somewhat of a national catchphrase and is most often associated with chemical and biological weapons, it also includes the use of nuclear weapons. Despite the attention given to the potential of an attack involving chemical and biochemical weapons, the real threat facing the United States today is a full-scale terrorist attack involving the use of nuclear weapons.

The reason that nuclear weapons pose the biggest threat to the security of the nation is that, first and foremost, the underground market for the weapons is large and unregulated. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, many of the former satellite states, who once held many of the U.S.S.R.'s nuclear cache, now see these nuclear weapons as a means of income. In other words, these nations or internal factions can make significant money by selling them due to the high demand for the weapon. The typical buyer are both rogue nations and terrorist organizations or militias.

Unlike chemical and biological weapons, nuclear weapons are easier to use at a far distance, can create significant destruction, both directly and indirectly, and are relatively easy to smuggle across borders. More so, like chemical and biological weapons, a nuclear weapon-based attack will have long lasting effects due to the fact that it too contains (and therefore disperses) radiation, a chemical that can continue to harm a population for generations into the future.

A clandestine nuclear attack involves the conducting of a nuclear or radiological attack by anyone, for any purpose, against either the United States or one of its military operations, delivered by means other than military missiles or aircraft. One of the most significant factors contributing to this threat is the large subset of smuggling of nuclear weapons, devices and materials currently occurring for the specific purpose of using them against the United States and/or its interests.

Since the middle of the twentieth century, the United States has been under the threat of a potential nuclear attack. Although this threat dates back to the Cold War and its arms proliferation, little has actually been done to protect the country against such an attack. The reason for this inactivity is that during the Cold War the focus was on the arms race, with its theory of protection by equal might. However, this theory is no longer applicable in the new threat of terrorist nuclear attacks. Instead, in order to protect the country from this new threat, new defense strategies must be implemented.

Under the current state of world affairs, it is generally accepted by the leading defense analysis teams that it would be relatively easy for a terrorist organization to both introduce and detonate a nuclear explosive within the borders of the United States of America. Further, it is agreed that such an attack would most likely occur in or near a major metropolitan area. In such a situation, the effects would be devastating as the explosion would kill many people and destroy the infrastructure, politics, culture and economy of the nation. Further, these repercussions, including a counter attack that could possibly also involve the use of nuclear weapons, would affect the history of the world in potentially catastrophic manners.

Knowing that this general threat exists, the United States most take steps in developing a defense strategy. As with any time of war, the central component is the competition between offense and defense. In today's post-September 11 world, the number of threats (or offensive players) are both many and diverse, therefore creating a greater importance and need for defense. One of the core areas of possible defensive strategy is the use of a national missile defense system.

By taking these steps now, the result would be to essentially take the use of a nuclear attack away from the terrorist, essentially preventing its emergence as a form of warfare. However, because of the diversity in the nuclear threat, the nation cannot rely on one single form of defense. Instead, the national government needs to work with the international community in order to create and implement an effective, multi-element, layered, international complex of systems that spreads between both the military and the civilian factions and thus capable of reducing the likelihood of any form of successful nuclear attack.

The Threat

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, made it clear that the terrorists had the intent, and capabilities, of inflicting massive damage to the United States homeland. Further, nuclear proliferation has escalated at alarming speed, with such rogue nations as Iran and North Korea reaching nuclear weapon capability and other nations moving there quickly.

The available methods and propensities for covert and clandestine operations at creating massive destruction are spreading. More so, the availability of nuclear weapons, once a weapon confined to only a handful of industrialized nations, are now, to say the least, "oozing out of control" and spreading into the hands of undeveloped countries, militias and terrorist organizations. Further, these areas are often hostile or potentially hostile to the United States, often getting the weapons for this sole purpose. Finally, these regions in which the existence of nuclear weapons is spreading have little to no control as to provide effective information and information on location and loss. However, somewhat surprisingly, despite this change in international threat, little has changed in the way the United States reacts to the threat.

Clearly, any terrorist attack on the United States that utilized weapons of mass destruction, whether nuclear or not, would have extensive effects beyond the devastating and immense immediate casualties. The reason a nuclear attack on the homeland of the United States would be such a devastating act is that, at its center, it would cause a fundamental change on how Americans live, perhaps extending as far as actually changing the nature of the nation's, and the world's, democratic institutions.

The nuclear attack itself would be the first event in a long line of events, acting as the touching spark to set off a chain of events that would threaten to destabilize the global nuclear weapons regime, leading to fundamental and irreversible alterations to the global security system. Take as example the fact that a nuclear attack coming from a terrorist organization would leave immense casualties in its wake and be almost impossible to determine who was responsible, thus leveraging third-party provocation in the crisis to an unprecedented extent.

Because none of these aforementioned events have ever happened and the catastrophe it would cause never seen, this risk must be viewed in a unique framework separate from the framework used to evaluate and plan for past nuclear and general threats of weapons of mass destruction. Further, because the likelihood of such an attack, along with the likelihood of the attack's consequences are indeterminate, the general risk of a terrorist nuclear attack must be managed on the basis of the consequences. With the consequences in mind, a response must involve the coordinated planning of both defense strategies and diplomatic and political strategies. However, these individual efforts alone cannot be expected to successfully defend against the threat.

In light of the information provided on the threat that currently predominates the American psyche, it is clear that the world is in the middle of a dramatic change in the definition and way of conducting warfare. At the center of this change in the way war is waged exist the threat of a clandestine nuclear attack and the need, and ability, to successfully prevent, defend, and, in the worse case scenario, respond to it.

Preparedness

Despite these intricate and complex plans for defense strategies, the United States, as a whole, is remarkably under-prepared for a terrorist nuclear-based attack. As a result of several decades of underestimating the reality of such an attack, very little resources have been delegated to the research needed to develop the technological capabilities of implementing and operating a comprehensive defense strategy. However, as has been shown, today this threat is very much real, thus the stakes are higher and the need for specialized technologies and the processes to mitigate against the terrorist threat is a matter of life and death.

Although technological improvement is not the sole answer to implementing an effective defense strategy, it is a crucial component at all levels of the strategy. For example, technology is necessary for the: protection of materials and weapons at their sources, detection of the presence or transit of weapons and materials, responding to an attack, rendering an attacked area safe, attribution and identification, and consequence management. Without such technological improvements, it will be impossible to implement a comprehensive defense strategy. Without the implementation of a comprehensive defense strategy, the United States faces the inability to defend against and respond to the imminent threat posed by terrorist organization's nuclear capabilities.

In conclusion, several things are clear. First, the possibility of a significant terrorist attack against the United States or its interest by a terrorist organization and using such weapons of mass destruction as nuclear weapons is very real. Second, currently, the United States is grossly unprepared to defend against this very real and very dangerous threat. Third, the United States needs to restructure its approach to military defense strategies and thus develop a new strategy better capable of effectively preventing and managing the nuclear threat.

In order to this, the United States must start by evaluating its current vulnerabilities and take the necessary and immediate steps to rectify them. The United States must also take measures to improve its nuclear intelligence capabilities, establish a strategy for the development and deployment of a prevention and protection strategy to protect mission areas from attacks, and establish joint war capabilities with the international community that includes special organizational, training and equipment needs.

Without these measures in place, the United States is setting itself up for a devastating nuclear attack. There is no question as to whether the terrorist organizations are capable of carrying out such an attack. The only question is when such an attack will be carried out. Knowing this, the question for the United States is not "what the consequences will be" but "how do we prepare for it?"